It seems to Adolf the Democrats haven’t learned much from their 2016 debacle.
The presidential election in many respects seems eerily like a rerun of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous effort. In particular, the apparent Biden lead in national opinion polls seems to dominate US media, just as Clinton’s lead four years ago. In 2016 Donald Trump ignored these polls and campaigned hard in the decisive battleground states.
The rest is history.
Today it’s not easy to see what’s really going on out there in the states where the electoral college decides who wins. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. They are a long way from those warm fuzzy national polls giving Biden the lead.
So. Here’s a cut and paste from Trafalgar Group and US Today
WI Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
Joe Biden 47.6%
Donald Trump 46.3%
Jo Jorgensen 2.2%
Another Party Candidate 1.1%
Undecided 2.8%
Wisconsin is Trump country, demographically speaking.
In no other top battleground do rural and blue-collar white voters play as big a role — and Donald Trump won them four years ago by margins not seen here in decades.
The president’s path to victory in Wisconsin begins with trying to replicate that feat this November.
“I think that’s probably (Trump’s) biggest challenge,” said political scientist Katherine Cramer, who wrote an influential book about the shifting rural vote in Wisconsin called “The Politics of Resentment.”
“Hillary Clinton was so unpopular with these voters … They just could not stand her,” said Cramer, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “(Joe) Biden is not as unpopular.”
MI Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 46.5%
Joe Biden 45.9%
Jo Jorgensen 2.5%
Someone Else 1.7%
Howie Hawkins 1.5%
Undecided 2.0%
For Joe Biden to beat President Donald Trump, he’ll likely need to take back Michigan, a state that historically has been more supportive of Democrats than most others in the Rust Belt.
No state won by Trump in 2016 was closer than Michigan, where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a mere 10,704 votes — or about two-tenths of 1%. His path to the White House was forged by breaking through the traditionally Democratic “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It was close in all three states. But as former first lady Michelle Obama said at the Democratic convention, Trump’s win in Michigan amounted to a difference of only about two votes for every precinct in the state.
FL Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 48.4%
Joe Biden 46.1%
Jo Jorgensen 1.8%
Howie Hawkins 1.0%
Someone Else 1.1%
Undecided 1.6%
When polls throughout the summer showed Democrat Joe Biden with a commanding lead in Florida over President Donald Trump, many political analysts were skeptical.
Blowouts just don’t happen in Florida politics.
Since 1996, the average margin of victory for presidential candidates here is just 2.6 percentage points, by far the lowest of any state.
George W. Bush famously carried Florida in 2000 by just 537 votes after a recount.
So it’s not surprising that recent Florida polling has shown a tighter race, setting up a blockbuster final stretch that could tip the entire presidential contest. Biden still holds an advantage, one that has expanded since Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. But Hillary Clinton also led in Florida at this stage in 2016, and Democrats are cautious after seeing Trump overtake her and win the state by 1.2 percentage points.
PA Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
Joe Biden 47.4%
Donald Trump 45.1%
Jo Jorgensen 3.1%
Someone Else 2.6%
Howie Hawkins 1.0%
Undecided 1.8%
Pennsylvania’s nickname is the Keystone State — an apt moniker for its role in the presidential race as both campaigns ferociously vie for its 20 electoral votes.
President Donald Trump received about 48.5% of the vote in the state of 13 million residents in 2016 — enough to narrowly beat Hillary Clinton by about 44,000 votes or less than 1 percentage point.
But that election also demonstrated Democratic strength in heavily populated Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden is hoping to bring out more voters this fall.
AZ Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 47.8%
Joe Biden 43.8%
Jo Jorgensen 2.2%
Someone Else 1.6%
Undecided 3.6%
When it comes to presidential politics in Arizona, Dwight Eisenhower and Bob Dole help explain 72 years of voting. Every Republican since Ike in 1952 has carried the state, except for Dole in 1996.
That long Republican-red history could be upended in November if dozens of polls and more recent voting trends hold up.
NC Sept 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 47.8%
Joe Biden 46.1%
Jo Jorgensen 1.6%
Howie Hawkins 0.5%
Don Blankenship 0.5%
Someone Else 1.0%
Undecided 2.5%
President Donald Trump’s frequent visits to North Carolina are a sign: the state and its 15 Electoral College votes are critical to his effort to win reelection.
He has made seven appearances here since July 27 — four in September alone. Two stops were on Aug. 21: He visited Charlotte for the COVID-subdued GOP convention and observed a food assistance program in the western mountains. When he held his signature rallies, thousands of energetic supporters waited hours to see him.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden has held back on public appearances due to the coronavirus, instead primarily conducting online gatherings with surrogates to boost support. He had a low-key visit to Charlotte in September, and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris made three stops in Raleigh one day near the end of the month. Biden’s wife, Jill, campaigned for him in Fayetteville on Oct. 6.
No Minister 
You are being rather selective in the pollsters you are citing. As you well know, a wider selection of polls gives Biden a more substantial advantage in the states you have referenced.
Of course we will know the truth in just two weeks. But based on the range of polls I have been noting, I am picking the Trump will be quite heavily defeated
That is also the view of David Farrar, who has deep knowledge of polls and the range of their variability.
We’ll just have to see who has the last laugh.
Your ‘wider selection’ of polls had Clinton winning in a landslide.
fivethirtyeight has a 9% difference as at 6 am NZ today. Nate also forecast a Clinton win, so who knows? But the tide is against Trump. I have a GOP family connection, former staffer now working in London who is voting Biden; that indicates just how steep Trump’s climb will be. But how is America reduced to the two choices being Trump and a 77 year old never was?
Further to last. It is amusing to watch Wayne Mapp valiantly defending incompetent pollsters.
Relying on averages is a bit like mixing two buckets of horse shit with two buckets of fruit salad and wondering why the result tastes like horse shit.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html#!
Adolf,
It is too soon to judge which pollsters are competent or not. Why don’t you wait a couple of weeks before you rush to judgement.
Why wait when all the evidence you need is available from 2016 and 2018?
Enjoy your fruit salad!
one swallow doth not a summer make but nevertheless the advice from Max R re his GOP family connection is instructive. Max’s last sentence sez it all.