From Powerline
By any sensible calculation, the principal worldwide covid damage has come not from the virus, but from governments’ efforts to suppress it, principally through lockdowns. Dr. Ari Joffe attempts to quantify that disproportion. Joffe is a distinguished Canadian pediatrician, having recently been named one of the ten most influential researchers in the field of pediatric critical care.
Dr. Joffe itemizes some of the adverse consequences of shutdowns:
Public health leaders are medical experts and are necessary advisors in formulating a response to the pandemic. However, their expertise is not sufficient to make policy decisions. There are trade-offs to any decision made, and preventing COVID-19 cases, deaths, and overwhelmed hospital capacity are not the only factors to consider. Unfortunately, the response perspective of controlling a single disease has had devastating, often unequally distributed, collateral effects.
Lockdowns have put many sustainable development goals out of reach. In many parts of the world there have been interruptions in childhood vaccinations, education, detection and treatment of infectious diseases (for example, tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV), and prevention of under 5-year-old and maternal mortality, projected to cost many millions of lives in the coming years. These interruptions in economic activity and supply chains are estimated to cause more than 83 million people to become food insecure, and over 70 million people to enter severe poverty (living on less than US$1.90/day), both likely to cost many more millions of lives in the coming years. Violence against women, including intimate partner violence, female genital mutilation, and child marriage are projected to also increase by many millions of cases.
In high-income countries other collateral damage from lockdowns is occurring. Fear of attending hospitals resulted in 50 percent declines in visits for heart attacks and strokes, meaning missed opportunity for time-critical treatments. ‘Non-urgent’ surgery and cancer diagnosis/treatment were delayed, with backlogs that will take years of catch-up and untold effects on prognoses. Of excess mortality during the pandemic, 20-50 percent has not been due to COVID-19 (see Kontis et al. 2020; Docherty et all 2020; and Postill et al 2020); much of that excess is likely attributable to these collateral effects. An unexplained increase in deaths of people with dementia in the US and UK also likely arose from deterioration due to loneliness. Over time, suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status, and social isolation are projected to cause millions of years of life lost in Canada alone.
Dr. Joffe uses an approach that quantifies “Quality Adjusted Life Years” to weigh the benefits and costs of global covid shutdowns. Using that methodology, he concludes that the costs of shutdowns have exceeded the benefits by at least ten to one. He also notes that “Various cost-benefit analyses from different countries, including some of these costs, have consistently estimated the cost in lives from lockdowns to be at least five to 10 times higher than the benefit, and likely far higher.”
This kind of calculation is by no means an exact science, but I think it is fair to say that a scientific consensus is emerging to the effect that shutdowns do vastly more harm than good.
No Minister 
Bollocks to the statement that there is a scientific consensus emerging that lockdowns do more harm than good.
What you are describing is a contrarian view point expressed by some scientists who are of that view. They are a small minority.
Given that this viewpoint is being spread by those who have consistently opposed the NZ government’s approach, it will get no traction here.
And clearly not in Europe, where all governments are going into fresh lockdowns to control the current outbreak.
The situation in the US is much more mixed due to the different states. I certainly recall Tom praising the Governor’s of North and South Dakota. Now they are among the worst affected states in the US. At current daily death rates, I would not surprised if the US covid death rate is close to 500,000 by the end of January.
Spoken like a good little lefty. Since when is science based on consensus?
And by the way, your 500,000 dead Yanks would have died within six months from natural causes unrelated to Covid. You are quoting from flawed figures which include all those who died while infected with Covid – including gunshot victims and road accident fatalities.
OMG, I’m being gummed by Wayne Mapp.
Again.
And with exactly the same argumentative line he always uses:
– the crowd does not agree with you.
– thus it will make no headway.
Ladies and gentlemen, the National Party, circa 1950 to the endless future.
==============
As it happens I only praised South Dakota, mainly because their Governor is female, Republican, rather hot, and not inspired by statist control freaks like you. She refused to go for a full, insane lock down, and the MSM and Statists have been on her back forever because of that.
Except here’s the thing: the states of New York, New Jersey and California have been hammering the lockdown thing since day 1 of this crisis. And yet even now, South Dakota has a better death rate on this virus than the the first two states and of course California is suffering a massive second surge.
Just like all those European countries that went full lockdown.
Why it’s almost as if lockdowns only suppress the surge for a while. People are still catching the disease and dying in those states and European nations. In fact, California has a worse outbreak that it did nine months ago. Which, of course, is why nobody is comparing it to Texas or Florida, which got almost as much abuse as South Dakota because they didn’t lock down to the same degree, and of course they also lifted what lockdowns they had as soon as possible.
A few weeks ago I was assured by all the folks here with “scientific knowledge”, that this second US surge was all about the disease finally spreading from the packed, urban areas of the USA to the rural areas.
So again…. California?
FFS. With all this talk about science and scientific experts when is the obvious question going to be asked: the thing that a scientist would ask:
if the lockdowns were the answer the first time, how is it that they they’re needed again….. and again….. and again….?
Let me refer you once more, as I did on April 20, 2020, to an expert epidemiologist, Professor Johan Giesecke’s and his comments on lockdowns:
And here the rest of Europe and the Western world is.
Again.
Yup Adolf, you certainly have held this view all the way through, unfortunately facts on the ground here don’t back you up. We had a severe lockdown lasting 6 weeks and a partial one for 2 weeks and a further 5 weeks in the spring. As we had few covid deaths you would expect us to have excess deaths caused by the lockdown but we have the reverse. A death deficit of around 700, caused by the positive unintended consequences of the lockdown ( less virus circulating less traffic accidents) exceeding the negative unintended consequences ( suicides, delayed medical treatment etc) . It follows that most , if not all, of the excess deaths in the UK are actually unattributed covid deaths and few are indirect lockdown deaths. When this plays out N.Z.s response, eliminate, isolate and achieve herd immunity via vaccination (mid 2021) will be seen as gold medal stuff. (We we amongst the world worst in 1919, 16.000 per million dead). You and your ilk are on the wrong side of history.
You do realise that entire article and link is not referring to New Zealand, right? That in scientific terms it’s possible that there are .. possibly other variables involved when one begins to rant about the success of NZ compared to other countries?
Like being one of the most isolated nations on the planet.
You are pissing in the wind perhaps Adolf – the thing about people who have been scammed is they will go to great lengths to avoid admitting they have been scammed in the face of over whelming evidence to the contrary.
We are living through a major historical event and that has been obvious since February – the open question is will we surrender our liberty and democracy to a technocratic elite or will enough people stand up for what is right and preserve the values we hold dear
There are major corruption trials underway in Ukraine as we speak and part of the evidence is the large sums of money, traced, that flowed through shell companies through a Bank in Latvia to the Bidens as well as the corruption of the Ukranian Prosecutors Office at the behest of Joe Biden to protect Oligarchs
But like the laptop it will all be buried
Ian you are the one on the wrong side of history.
You have confused unintended consequences with delayed or hidden consequences.
The death rate in the population at large is still there, it may be delayed but it will even out.
Just try getting elective surgery in NZ, or speak to detists about irreparable damage done to kids teeth, estimated to have delayed treatment by 3 years as one small example.
Herd immunity by vaccination….duh. The virus has already mutated at least 2 times that is known of.
There is no cold vaccine, there is no true vaccine ,they are always looking in the mirror.
And what about naturally immunity..that’s what the body has been doing for 10000 years or more but by isolating ourselves our immune systems are becoming lazy or detuned.
Anyway look at the stats world wide on infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate..it’s all bullshit. Death rate no worse than the common flu.
You are s victim of herd stupidity.
Rossco
You are totally wrong that covid mortality is the same as the flu. This has been pointed out to you many times before. Mortality is around 10 times higher.
And of course you also think that there is no man made climate change and that Trump won the election.
10 times higher huh?, How come the death statistics don’t support that theory?
By the way, I like how the USA has reduced their death rate of heart disease in the last year.
Wayne is an ex politician and a post modernist uncoffined – meaning numbers can be pulled out of end of one’s ailmentary canal and reality is in the eye of the beholder and is malleable according to political expediancy.
He is also a fine illustration of why the 21st century National Party of New Zealand is not a creidible alternative to the dire crew who currently hold the treasury benches
Dear Wayne as at 22 Dec total world infections 78 million. Total deaths 1.7 million.
Death rate calculation divide the small number by the big number.
10 percent as you claim is 7.7 million dead
1 percent is 770,00
So without even a calculator I can tell you the death rate is just over 2% of those infected.
Statista.com is the source and they are a highly reputable stats source, unlike you.
If you don’t understand statistics , message me and I can point you in the direction of “stats for dummies”
Politico: Locked-down California runs out of reasons for surprising surge:
Confounded the experts, you say? This is my shocked face.
Just signed my last golf card for the year. Adolf’s question was how many of the excess deaths were covid and how many were collateral damage. Death certificates are hopeless for this. IMHO the best way is to find a country who have locked down and who have little or no covid deaths. In that case we can be sure that all the excess deaths there were caused by the lockdown. N.Z. is just such a country but unfortunately for Adolf’s argument we have a death deficit.
Wake up, Ian. More like a brain deficit. The figures for cancer, cardiac etc deaths resulting from cessation of early intervention while hospitals emptied themselves in preparation for the mythical onslaught of Covid patients won’t show up for 12 to 24 months.
Clearly Ian filling in a golf card is about the extent of your mathematical abilities and my post was also beyond your comprehension.
I think Sweden is a better example for your theories.
It shows the true trajectory of a flu virus through a population not locked down. Unfortunately as they admit the numbers would have significantly better without their resthomes.
But as you would be the first to admit New York and New Jersey made that mistake as well, and then compunded it.
Adolf, I thought your article was apportioning excess deaths that have already occurred, not the 12-24 month tail. The hospitals weren’t emptied to make room, elective surgery and outpatient appointments were delayed because covid would spread if they weren’t. Yes the rest of the world doesn’t have our options and has to choose The least worse one for them. In many cases just following the basics by the vast majority could contain. I detect a change in the Americans attitude. Their excess death rate of 19%, or 380,000 since March, means that 1 in 800 adult Americans have died of covid. Nearly every American will know 2 or 3 and several more who have had a tough time with it.
Rossco,
I know perfectly well that the covid death rate is between 1 and 2%, which is about ten times higher than the influenza death rate.
Also you could try a novel approach to debating by not throwing in gratuitous insults.
Again your emotional views don’t stand up to statistical scrutiny.
318000 have apparently died in the US of covid out of 18m infections.
The annual death rate of all causes is 2.8 million. Whether this year will be any different to 2018 or 2019 is yet to be seen.
As can be seen by reversing the statistic 98% approx survive covid. The vast majority often not knowing they have it
It is generally accepted that the death rate is also distorted due to the financial benefits being offered to the hospitals reporting it.
Your emotive claim about every citizen knowing 2-3 people having a tough time is not supported in a population of 350 million especially as the vadtbulk of deaths is concentrated in the over 80.
The mean age at death in the us is 78.8 years anyway.
There is the deceit writ large – the average rest home resident in New Zealand lives about 17 months from the time of admission to death.
People dying in rest homes is par for the course – viral pneumonia is a common trigger for the final decline of people in rest homes. If you can spin this every day occurrence with a certain inevitability about it as something highly unusual and anomalous there is an opportunity to make political hay
Well over thirty thousand kiwis have breathed their last breath this year – 30 of them have been defined as Covid deaths, all of them elderly people, in most cases extremely elderly people but for some reason the deaths of these thirty people are far more tragic and noteworthy than the other 99.9% of all other deaths
“The hospitals weren’t emptied to make room, elective surgery and outpatient appointments were delayed because covid would spread if they weren’t.”
How inventive of you! You conveniently forget the daily headines screaming about flattening the curve, along with graphs showing the bell curve overwhelming hospitals – courtesy of that idiot computer modeller, Furguson.
And by the way, do try to remember the word ‘with’ is not spelt ‘o. f.’
All cause deaths in us this year will be 3.2 million 400,000 higher than expected.
Rossco, maths go like this. U.S. adult population 320,000,000. Excess deaths since March 400,000. I.e 1 in 800. Most people know between 2-3000 people in their orbit. So Americans will, on average, know 2 or 3 of this cohort. Adolf, no idea about your spelling lesson.
I’m certainly going to be running some spreadsheets on “excess deaths” for the USA, UK, and Sweden in the New Year, once we’re certain of the death tolls for Jan 1-Dec 31, 2020.
In the meantime it would behoove any person debating this issue to understand the differences not just between CFR and IFR but also the errors involved in figuring out the Infection Numbers for things like flu and so forth. When calculating these numbers for the seasonal flu the American CDC has to estimate the total cases, since not everybody gets tested or shows symptoms of it each Winter.
And then there’s this, which was really always the heart of the issue:
Ian even if we take your figures at face value and correct t andthat there were was an excess of 400,000 ” deaths” in the USA for 2020 that is an increase over the average of only 1%
If you were to do a rigourous statistical analysis of the USA’s death rate over the past 20 years 1% above the “average” is not anomalous – in fact the death rate for the USA 2018 was 1.1% higher than it was in 2017 and nobody thought the sky was falling and of course it wasn’t
If I toss a coin 10 timess on average I will get five heads and five tails but in the real world if I do this I will only get that result 0.24609375 of the time i.e approimately 1 time out of 4 for every 10 toss sequence and heads coming up 6 times in 10 coin tosses would not be an unusual or surprising result – P=0.205078125 or about 1 time out of 5 in 10 coin toss sequences
So it is with the USA registering 400,000 more deaths than the average unsurprising – even less so given the age profile of these so called excess deaths which occur ialmost excluseivly n the elderly and infirm.
Comprehende?
Andrei it’s 10% and that’s for 9 months
Correction us deaths have risen 19% from the start of covid until early Dec. totalling 377,000 extra deaths.
But if you delve into the stats it’s not all covid.
For instance death from diabetes is strongly up ,15 % as is high blood pressure deaths, and a whole range of other diseases.
They estimate from 25% to 40 % of that figure you quote is also other diseases.
Given what happened in NY you could hardly be surprised at the excess covid deaths..