Chinese Xi Snot Risk Calculations

Here’s fun to while away the time in lockdown.

A website set up by Oxford University: QCovid Risk Assessment.

You have to scroll down the first page and hit the ACCEPT button for the license to use the software, but after that it’s a matter of punching in your age, weight, health factors and so forth.

It uses British data of course, including stuff on your location but aside from a couple of factors the rest should apply here if you’re not of Maori or Pacific Island descent (obviously Britain would not have a lot of Covid data for those demographics)

There’s also this disclaimer

PLEASE NOTE: This implementation of the QCovid risk calculator is NOT intended for use supporting or informing clinical decision-making. It is ONLY to be used for academic research, peer review and validation purposes, and it must NOT be used with data or information relating to any individual. 

I wonder how long they’ll leave this site up, since obviously individuals will do what I and other have done here.

Running my data through the system I find that my risks from Covid-19 are as follows:

SICKNESS	DEATH
1 chance in 1164	1 chance in 6211

In other words in a crowd of 10,000 people with the same risk factors as me, 2 are likely to catch and die from COVID-19 and 10 to be admitted to hospital during a 90 day period similar to the recent peak in Britain.

Of course the data is changing all the time as more is learned.

Still, I should probably be hiding under the bed with a mask on.

You can’t be too careful