No Minister


The government has released a report prepared for them by a Shane Hendly which has it that New Zealand could see up to 7,000 deaths per annum from Covid even with 80% of the 5+ population (75% of the entire population) fully vaccinated unless there are additional measures put in place … read further restrictions on business, the size of gatherings and the ability to travel internally.

Up until now there has been a general consensus between all parties in Parliament in relation to our Covid response with the only differences being around the fringes. This report which clearly has the endorsement of government (why would you release it otherwise) could well be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Does the government really think we are so believing of everything we hear from the oracle of truth; so thick that we are incapable of distilling truth from fiction? If they do then they may just get their true comeuppance. There is a limit as to how far you can push people.

Consider this … 18 months into Covid 19 including six weeks with the Delta variant present in the community and with the country at the tail end of developed countries with its vaccination rollout we have experienced a total of just twenty seven, repeat 27, Covid related deaths.

And the government expects us to believe a report that has it that even with the vaccination rollout at 75% we could see up to 7,000 deaths per annum reducing to 50 were the vaccination level to reach 85% and provided always additional restrictive measures remained in place.

Reality vs modelling that at best is suspect and at worst reflects the instincts of a socialist government to manage the daily life of the country their way with freedom a dirty word.

New Zealand … the way you’ve got it. Wake up sheeple.

Written by The Veteran

September 23, 2021 at 3:12 pm

Posted in NZ Politics

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17 Responses

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  1. I’m enjoying the two clashing narratives here

    First, why is anybody still taking notice of this twit’s “modelling” following the exposure of the assumptions he plugged into the model to produce 80,000 Covid deaths? To be fair he’s a Physicist not an epidemiologist and his OTT death projections are no worse than those of the British twat, Ferguson, who is an epidemiologist and is still being quoted after twenty years of such horror forecasts for the likes of N1H1 and Mad Cow.

    Second, if the government is still taking notice of him then it’s going to put them into a hell of a corner. As far as ongoing restrictions are concerned we’ve already seen one of the people from the notorious Otago University Public Health Department, a Dr Baker, talking about how we can never go back to “Level 0”.

    Tom Hunter

    September 23, 2021 at 3:19 pm

    • Hendy is a tool of the government. They need a professional shroud waver to scare the populace into hiding behind Cindy’s skirts. Who better than a “Professor”?

      John JohnO

      September 23, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    • Nailed it I think JJO.


      September 23, 2021 at 5:26 pm

  2. Well Tom … clearly the gummit is. They commissioned it and they released it. I’m no conspiracy theorist it seems to me, a simple ex soldier, we’re seeing ‘conditioning’ in play here.

    The Veteran

    September 23, 2021 at 3:26 pm

    • I’m no conspiracy theorist it seems to me, a simple ex soldier, we’re seeing ‘conditioning’ in play here

      Red pill kicking in?

      Please God let it be so


      September 23, 2021 at 4:49 pm

    • The gummint has clearly been taken by surprise by the vaccination uptake. They tried their best to slow it down without anyone noticing but had their hand forced. Now the vaccination curve is about to pop their 80% bubble they have to move the target to a fairly unattainable 90%. The alternative is to give up their precious control methods and daily news conferences – the last things they would want to do.

      John JohnO

      September 23, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    • Good spotting John Johno, they are literally making it up as they go along.


      September 23, 2021 at 7:19 pm

    • The gummint has clearly been taken by surprise by the vaccination uptake. They tried their best to slow it down without anyone noticing but had their hand forced.

      You think Johnno?

      I first noticed yesterday a change in tone coming from the “Podium of Truth” to be henceforth known as POT

      Frowny Faced Jacinda wasn’t there, instead it was Grant Robertson on oracular duty.

      But it was Dr Ashley who expounded that “elimination™” now didn’t mean actual elimination but rather the stamping down of outbreaks as they occur

      Today the POT has no prominence in the media what-so-ever and in the last hour another expert has been given prominence on Stuff poo poohing Shaun Hendy’s dire predictions

      Covid-19 NZ: Rodney Jones says Shaun Hendy’s 7000-death vaccine model doesn’t pass plausibility test

      The Government has screwed up big time over reacting to a disease that doesn’t present a significant risk to the vast majority of people and are using the vaccine to cover their retreat from an unnecessary and unsustainable policy that has caused immense damage to the economy and immense damage to people.

      Two things you need to know

      (1) The median age of those who supposedly die of Covid is about 81. That is half of all “Covid deaths” occur in people 81 or older

      (2) Healthy individuals under sixty have a better chance of winning lotto than dying of Covid

      These outbreaks of mass hysteria have been a feature of human society for 100s of years, from the 17th century witchcraft trials through to the Satanic sex abuse scares of the late 1980s early 1990s

      This one is probably the most damaging one socially and economically in human history

      The best defence against them is having a healthy skepticism


      September 23, 2021 at 6:02 pm

    • Is Hendy actually so far out with his figures? Professor La Grow, on AM this morning, noted that the figure was if you did nothing other than vaccination. Well, that is pretty much the approach in Texas and some other southern states. Legislatures that are formally opposed to any form of lockdown, opposed to masking, opposed to any vaccine mandate within occupation groups. All in the name of freedom.

      Texas has a population around 6 times that of New Zealand. They currently have up to 400 people die per day from covid, almost all coming from the unvaccinated. Translating that to New Zealand would mean around 60 dead per day. Pretty easy to get to 7,000 in a year with that daily rate of death.

      Fortunately the political and social culture in NZ right across the spectrum has little resemblance to the southern states of the US, so we are much more willing to do what it takes to deal with covid.

      Yes, 90% vaccination rates will be a challenge, as I have already noted. But you only have to look to parts of the US to see what happens if vaccination rates are too low and things are fully opened up. Most New Zealanders are fully ware of what has happened in the US and are saying, we are not taking that path.


      September 24, 2021 at 7:48 am

  3. Lets not even bother with vaccination targets, assuming (a big assumption) that there are enough vaccinations to go around, set a date, January 1st 2022. and announce all covid restrictions will fall away on that date.

    No mask mandates, no MIQ.

    Give a aged care facilities the funds to create and staff some ICU beds and maintain some sensible distancing procedures.

    anybody who isn’t vaccinated by then assumes the risk and we get on with our lives.


    September 23, 2021 at 5:39 pm

    • The idea of 90% of the eligible population, or around 75% figure of the total population, has been around a long time. Just about all vaccination programmes require well over 90% to reduce the risk of transmission, or in fact to eliminate the disease (smallpox). The Pfizer vaccine does not actually prevent a person contracting covid, unlike traditional vaccines. Though such vaccines are being developed.
      Unlike a few here, I am not cynical about the 90% goal. It has already been reached for those over 65. But it will be hard for some groups.
      Peeni Henare, on the AM show this morning, is clearly very concerned about the Maori vaccination rate, which is way below the national average, especially for younger Maori. Though for over 65’s it is about the same as those over 65 generally. I personally think there has been so much “propaganda” about the evils of colonialism and so much disruption of traditional social structures (stable family units) that a large number of young Maori are highly resistant to a government programme that encourages vaccination. To a much greater extent than the general population. So getting to 90% for all Maori over 12 will be very difficult.
      However, the government has been clear that all groups need to get to 90%. But what if one substantial group does not? And doesn’t just miss by a little, but by quite a lot. The health risk in that group will be very significant, and will also affect other groups, though to a lesser extent.
      Expect a massive effort to get the Maori rate up. It will be the major push for the rest of the year.
      So there will be no loosening up of the current rules this year, that is, no opening up to the world in 2021. The vast majority of New Zealanders have already accepted that NZ remains shut this year, and probably for early next year.
      But if one group stays significantly below the 90% figure in say 6 months time, what then?


      September 23, 2021 at 8:46 pm

    • Just about all vaccination programmes require well over 90% to reduce the risk of transmission, or in fact to eliminate the disease (smallpox). The Pfizer vaccine does not actually prevent a person contracting covid, unlike traditional vaccines. Though such vaccines are being developed.

      Lol your faith in vaccines has taken on a quasi religious aura Wayne.

      One of the things that set my skepticism antenna twitching was there has been almost zero official discussion on treatment protocols for moderate to severe Covid cases and when outsiders propose possible approaches that could keep vulnerable people out of the ICU the reaction has been outright hostility

      Have you been vaccinated against Cholera Wayne? I have and much else besides

      But a much better way of dealing with cholera is to provide reticulated water from water treatment plants and efficient systems for dealing with sewerage

      Vaccines are not a universal bullet that solves every public health problem Wayne and some of them are just scams.

      I’m not an “anti vaxxer”. When I was a kid there was a diptheria outbreak where we lived, some kids actually died so we were all quickly vaccinated and the outbreak went away. That is a good thing

      If you are a farmer or an engineer is is smart to keep your tetanus vaccinations up to date for sure

      But the “flu jab”? It is not particularly effective truth be known, It might do some good, it might do more harm than good

      The Pfizer vaccine does not actually prevent a person contracting covid, unlike traditional vaccines.

      Then what is the point?


      September 23, 2021 at 10:35 pm

    • Good one alloytoo.

      A nice simple practical solution. They funnily enough are often the ones that work.

      The herd has stampeded from total eradication to total vaccination, or some version of Wayne’s mythical 90%., and has yet to embrace the simple solution, unlike a lot of countries. (Denmark, Sweden etc)

      I wont bother restating the problems with the vaccine except to restate Pfizer’s announcement on the weekend, based on its own studies, ITS ONLY GOOD FOR 5 MONTHS !

      It doesnt stop you getting the virus
      It doesnt stop you transmitting the virus
      It doesnt stop you dying of the virus

      The herd led by the PM will then stampede in the direction of booster shots.

      Me , Ill stick with my immune system…I trust it more than the Govt !

      By the way Vet good post…hope I didnt gee you up too much over Melbourne……have you found uTube on the Telly yet right nest to State TV channel 🙂


      September 23, 2021 at 10:46 pm

  4. Bravo Vet. I hope you are proven correct.

    Chris Jones

    September 23, 2021 at 6:30 pm

  5. Rodney Jones reckons Hendy is full of shit – with all due respect of course.

    Politics of fear, pure and simple.

    John JohnO

    September 23, 2021 at 7:26 pm

  6. Wayne

    I presume you meant ‘loosening up’ not lessening up. I have corrected accordingly. If I have transgressed please let me know.


    September 23, 2021 at 9:13 pm

  7. Wayne … my simple point, already picked up by others, is that in the NZL context Hendly’s modelling does not pass the sniff test. It’s shroud waving at its worst designed to achieve what? It appears to me we are being conditioned to accept an agenda whereby the Government, by design, is arrogating to itself an increasing role in how we live our lives. That only works insofar as people see those rules as fair and reasonable. You can only push the boundaries so far. Overstep the mark and you have the ingredients for civil unrest.

    The Veteran

    September 24, 2021 at 8:54 am

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