No Minister

HATE TO ADMIT IT BUT ANDREI HAS IT ABOUT RIGHT

with 15 comments

when he opines that the US political system is near broken. By that I’m not referring to democracy per se but to the fact that the political discourse has become so toxic at both a state and federal level that solving the real issues that beset the US has taken second place to OTT partisan political posturing where playing the man and not the ball holds pride of place. In saying that I can readily concede there has always been an element of the that but events over the past two decades have taken that to a new level and I think Americans are all the poorer for that.

A week in politics is a long time, a month an eternity. A month ago you would have been a brave person not to concede that the Republicans were odds on favorites to win back control of both the House and the Senate in the mid-term elections. Now I think all bets are off. There is a huge battle going on within the Republican Party between ‘ever trumpers’ and the more moderate faction that the Rosscos of this world would label RINOs. Problem with that is that 24% of those identifying themselves as Republicans also classify themselves as Moderates or Liberals (Gallup). That’s a big number. You add into the equation the 49% of Independents who classify themselves as Moderates or Liberals (again Gallup) remembering that for both parties winning the Independent vote is crucial to their chances of success and on any SWOT analysis the danger for the Republicans becomes clear.

And that danger is enhanced should Trump decide to stand again for the Presidency and one suspects the FBI raid almost makes that a certainty … his bruised ego will ‘trump’ common sense and remembering always that Trump sees himself bigger than any political party. Trump will stand and his candidacy will split the Republican Party and splinter the vote. The Democrats will laugh all the way back to the White House.

Andrei has it about right. The US political system is near broken.

Written by The Veteran

August 14, 2022 at 3:30 pm

Posted in US Politics

15 Responses

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  1. I’m surprised you’re not writing about all the NZ politics that have been occurring: Uffindel and now the revelations by a Labour Party MP of the toxic Labour Party bully culture?

    What’s up with your sudden focus on US politics? But to take up a couple of your points:

    There is a huge battle going on within the Republican Party between ‘ever trumpers’ and the more moderate faction that the Rosscos of this world would label RINOs.

    Actually that huge battle was in 2015-16 and the RINOS lost, and have continued to lose, as evidenced by the constant lack of support they’re finding for their traditional causes of corporate tax cuts and the like. Liz Cheney is merely the latest one who is going to be booted because her Wyoming voters thinks she’s serving the Virginia/D.C. circuit more than them. Trump’s record of backing candidates in GOP primaries is now 192 wins and 10 losses.

    I don’t know what your news sources are but I can guess, based on the fact that my US news sources keep an eye on them and have reported the drumbeat over the last week of the Democrat talking points you’re repeating here:
    – the Walls Are Closing in on Trump (again)
    – the Democrats have won big with legislation that voters back home will love.
    – The generic polls have closed up and the GOP winning in November is no longer a sure thing.

    I suggest you take a look at the polls showing a surge in support for Trump among not just GOP-registered voters but among Independents, which runs with the same groups overwhelming condemnation of the Mar-a-Largo FBI raid. Then there’s the polls like this:

    In July, a New York Times/Siena College poll reflected the same outcome as 75 percent of Americans believed the country is headed in the wrong direction. The Times wrote that the poll reflected a “country gripped by a pervasive sense of pessimism” with a sense of national dread that “spans every corner of the country, every age range and racial group, cities, suburbs and rural areas, as well as both political parties.”

    In May, the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research found the same numbers as only about two in ten adults believed America was heading in the right direction or that the economy was in a good condition.

    The Democrats don’t hold the House, and likely not even the Senate, based on that.

    Tom Hunter

    August 14, 2022 at 3:44 pm

  2. Tom … check my posts. I make periodic posts on the US body politik … my last two being on 4 and 6 August. I stand by what I said in this post. I wouldn’t take great issue with your NY Times/Siena College poll. I think they have it about right but for me it translates to ‘a plague on both your houses’. Much water to flow under the bridge between now and November but I do see Trump as a liability for the Republicans rather than an asset. Given your stance perhaps I can entice you into a double or quits with the $100 I won on the 2020 Presidential election … I’ll go with the Republicans failing to win control of the Senate … you on?

    Not much I can concerning Uffindel. I believe in redemption but being expelled from KC is a lot different from being expelled from your bog standard public school. The optics are bad … privileged background and all of that … and now new allegations are forthcoming and we will have to see how that plays out. Luxon did what he needed to do and any other party leader would have done the same on pain of being pilloried by the media Not helpful, not good and follows in a long line of MPs from all parties found wanting. It happens and will continue to happen witness Sharma and Lorck.

    The Veteran

    August 14, 2022 at 4:22 pm

    • Given your stance perhaps I can entice you into a double or quits with the $100 I won on the 2020 Presidential election … I’ll go with the Republicans failing to win control of the Senate … you on?

      I’m more keen on a free dinner but yes, you’re on for the bet. I’ll put a $100 on the GOP winning the Senate now, something that, as you know from what I wrote, I was doubtful of a couple of weeks ago.

      Not anymore; GOP voters are now determined to vote and I wouldn’t be surprised if the vote, at least for them, start to approach the % levels of a Presidential election.

      Tom Hunter

      August 14, 2022 at 4:28 pm

      • Money where mouth is always impresses me. I’ll be looking at the Georgia and Pennsylvania contests as bellweathers in determining the final result.

        The Veteran

        August 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm

  3. Tom … serious question. Can you reference your assertion that polling shows an overwhelming disapproval of the raids on Trump’s home. I’m looking at at the Politico poll which shows among all registered voters 49% approved of the raids vs 37% disapproval (the remainder ‘no opinion’). Among Democrats it was 84% vs 7%. Among Republicans pretty much the reverse at 15% vs 72% while for the Independents (for me the important one) it was 47% vs 33%.

    The Veteran

    August 14, 2022 at 5:11 pm

    • Trafalgar Group poll (they’ve been around for a while), Better summarised here in these graphs.

      76.7 percent of Republicans think that it was Trump’s “political enemies” behind the raid.

      53.9 percent of independent voters believe the same thing.

      The same polling shows that he same two groups motivation to vote this year has increased as a result – and it was already being pushed to historic levels (at least in Trafalgar polling over the last few Mid-Term election cycles) as a result of other things. It may even be up to the levels of 2010?

      Tom Hunter

      August 14, 2022 at 5:29 pm

      • Different questions.

        The Veteran

        August 14, 2022 at 5:39 pm

      • Not really, the answers to those Trafalgar questions must necessarily relate directly to questions of approval/disapproval of the raid. A group of which 53.9% think the raid was motivated by Trump’s political enemies is hardly one of which 47% also approve of the raid.

        Tom Hunter

        August 14, 2022 at 5:41 pm

  4. Tom … looked the Trafalgar Group up. Wiki has it that it is linked to the Convention of States Action which, in turn, has close ties with various conservative groups including the Tea Party Patriots as well as with the Republican Party. Hardly unbiased compared with Politico.

    The Veteran

    August 14, 2022 at 8:46 pm

    • 🤷
      So you think they’d deliberately screw with polls then to favour their ideological points?

      As opposed to Politico whose current front page lists the following headlines:

      – ‘I Always Wondered: Was She Afraid?’: Counter-Protesters Remember the Death of Heather Heyer
      – Trump under investigation for potential violations of Espionage Act (Betsy Woodruff, heh!)
      – Top House lawmakers ask intel officials to review national security damage from Trump document handling
      – GOP contorts itself in defense of Trump as new FBI search details emerge
      – Trump Org. can’t shake Manhattan DA’s criminal fraud case
      – GOP’s risky proposition: Rebuffing a fossil fuel-friendly climate bill

      Yeah, they sound so unbiased towards the Democrats and the Left in general:

      On January 14, 2021, conservative commentator Ben Shapiro was featured as a guest writer for Politico’s Playbook newsletter, where he defended Republicans in the US House of Representatives who opposed the second impeachment of Donald Trump. The newsletter drew backlash from Politico staffers.

      Why aren’t there any suggestions or implications, merely from things like that, that screwing with their polling to produce results that agree with their narrative? I do have to admit they’re perfect reading for New Zealand Centre Rightista.

      I suggest you read RealClearPolitics instead. They at least allow each side to have the floor for arguments.

      Tom Hunter

      August 14, 2022 at 9:46 pm

  5. LOL – you are still fixated on Donald Trump and have yet to grasp that the American Government and its institutions have long since ceased to represent wishes of the American people or their interests.

    As Stalin is s alleged to have said (hint he didn’t, its a made up quote) “its not who votes that counts its who counts the votes that counts”

    It is now a race between another American Civil war where regular Americans reclaim their nation from the creeps who have seized control of it or World War III where the absolutely ghastly people now in control decide to pull the whole house down rather than surrender their power

    Andrei

    August 14, 2022 at 9:41 pm

  6. This seems appropriate to the topic….:

    On April 18, U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle struck down the federal requirement for wearing surgical masks on airplanes, in airports, and while riding mass transit. Online videos showed passengers and airline staff ripping off their masks and celebrating in mid-flight. Given the accumulated frustration of two years of pandemic travel, the reaction was understandable.

    Far more remarkable was the vehemence of those opposed to the ruling. Judge Mizelle was unfit for office, they said. She was too young, at 35; she was unelected; she was a single, unrepresentative voice. Worst of all, she was an “activist Trump judge” and thus branded with the mark of the beast. Rescinding government policy—the kind of thing that American judges engage in with abandon, and usually to progressive cheers—in this instance was condemned as a usurpation of the powers of the executive branch.

    Judge Mizelle had crashed an exclusive party reserved for people of higher caste. “The CDC has the capability, through a large number of trained epidemiologists, scientists, to be able to make projections and make recommendations,” said Anthony Fauci, bureaucratic czar of all things Covid-19. “Far more than a judge with no experience in public health.”

    Tom Hunter

    August 14, 2022 at 9:55 pm

  7. Vet’s definition of a “moderate”

    An American of the middle class who was happy to see his job exported to China so that the world could be a safer place.”

    A definition of a New Zealand Moderate

    A New Zealand who is happy to see the institutions he grew up with eroded and destroyed by both main parties”

    Definition of a Trump supporter

    “Someone who understands the reality of the world, and therefore America’s geo political decline and is prepared to do something about it

    rossco

    August 15, 2022 at 10:07 am

    • Rossco …. I decline to play your stupid game except to say that as an avowed Trump supporter clearly you are happy to align yourself and your values with a draft dodging narcissist consumed with his own importance who wouldn’t know right from wrong if it bit him in the bum. Trump isn’t a Republican … he’s Trump and his legacy will be a bruised and divided party leaving the Democrats laughing all the way to a second term in the White-house.

      The Veteran

      August 15, 2022 at 5:10 pm

  8. For Vet to enjoy!

    I’m sure he is pleased another RINO has been cleaned out. If only National could

    rossco

    August 17, 2022 at 9:03 pm


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