There is increasing media speculation that the Prime Minister will bail to accept some cushy number in the UN or wherever. Its an interesting debate. Certainly there’s a very real chance that post the election Labour will, at best, be forced into a coalition of what in NZL constitutes the ‘hard left’ (Greens and Te Pati Maori) while at worst it will be consigned to the opposition benches.

Any Prime Minister (any Member of Parliament) would prefer to depart on their own terms with their head held high rather than be shown to the door by the electorate. Ardern, for all her faults, is no fool and she knows her star (and Labour’s) is on the wane. But here’s her dilemma (per courtesy of that ‘nice’ Mr Shama). Does she go before the by-election and make a difficult job for Labour all that more difficult or does she go after the event when, if Labour loses, she can rightly be accused of cutting and running.

I suspect there will be huge pressure on her to stay. Labour knows she is probably worth between 5-10% to them in the polls and even if they lose the 2023 election they will lose better with her in place. And one thing for sure … Ardern is Labour to the core … she will not want to see her legacy defined as leaving Labour to face a rout.

So, on balance, I think she will stay for now unless of course she wakes up one morning and sez to herself ‘I’ve had enough’ … could happen.