Here are my (political) predictions for 2023 … in for a penny, in for a pound. Feel free to argue the toss …
Jacx will not lead Labour into the election
National and ACT will form the next government
The Greens will struggle to hold onto their ten seats
NZ First will not be in parliament.
Te Pati Maori will pick up two additional seats … one List seat and Tamaki Makaurau
John Campbell will lose his cool on election night
David Seymour will be Deputy PM
Nicola Willis will be Finance Minister
Gerry Brownlie will be Speaker
ACT will pick up Education, Local Government, Defence & Veterans’ Affairs plus one other ‘name’ portfolio as well as having two ministers outside cabinet
Post the election there will be a bruising battle for the ‘soul’ of the Labour Party.
No Minister 
Vet while ACT will take a number of Cabinet Portfolios as you suggest I am not sure that Seymour is or will be interested in Deputy PM.
Erica Stanford to take a high ranking front bench seat.
Chris Penk for Justice or Attorney General.
Not sure the Maori Party will get an extra seat and if Labour put up someone more palatable than Tamati Coffey in Waiariki they (the Maori Party) could be back on the outside looking in as a result of the kick back against co-governance. Paying a price by association for Labours deceit with this rort.
One more thing – Luxon has tightened up the National Caucus in the last year – now he needs to harden up and take a couple of Labour scalps in the house in the lead up to the election.
Okay, I’ll bite, even though I try to ignore much of NZ politics….
Jacx will not lead Labour into the election
She took a brain-dead, policy-dead party from 24% to 37% in 2017 and then 50%+ in 2020. Who the hell else have they got that could come close to that, even taking Covid into account for 2020? Without her they’re back to a bit over 20% and they know it, especially now all their plans have turned to shit and they have to defend rather than just attack. And she’ll be guilted into staying in the role; recall that she didn’t really want it in the first place due to self-doubts.
National and ACT will form the next government
Yep, though it will likely be because things are going to get worse economically, rather than because of positive appeal.
The Greens will struggle to hold onto their ten seats
Really? I’d like to think so but there always seem to be just enough deluded bastards out there for them every election.
NZ First will not be in parliament.
God, I’d like to think so, and it will be if Luxon does what Key did in 2008 and what English should have done in 2017 – cut the bastard off at the knees with a firm NO to coalition with National so that he can’t pull his usual pox-on-all-house playbook. Luckily he’s already canned Labour himself.
Te Pati Maori will pick up two additional seats … one List seat and Tamaki Makaurau
Bugger, but … yeah. They know how to do narrow appeal and that’s all they need.
John Campbell will lose his cool on election night
Nah. You’re channeling the US TV election-night-desks in 2016. He’s not American, has been around too long and as a “real” Leftie he’s already shed all his tears for this useless government that can’t even deliver what he wants, which is the Alliance shite.
David Seymour will be Deputy PM
I guess. Is it a useless position? Has always seemed that way to me.
Nicola Willis will be Finance Minister
Interesting. Don’t know much about her background.
Gerry Brownlie will be Speaker
Good. Despite me not being very impressed with him as an MP or Cabinet Minister he knows the ropes and should play fair – not that Labour will ever return the favour as Lockwood Smith to bloody Mallard showed.
ACT will pick up Education, Local Government, Defence & Veterans’ Affairs plus one other ‘name’ portfolio as well as having two ministers outside cabinet
Good, the first two need a hell of shakeup. The latter…. sadly I don’t know if any Minister or Party can do what needs doing there. At best they might give the groups “supporting” the Vets a good kick up the bum.
Post the election there will be a bruising battle for the ‘soul’ of the Labour Party.
Political parties don’t have souls.
No, there will be rending of garments as to why they did so little “real” Lefty stuff with a sole-party majority, followed by the same leader-meltdowns and in-fighting that we’ve seen in Labour post 1990 and 2008, and National post 1999 and 2020. They’ll be back in 2029 or 2032 with the next new, young, shiny, “charismatic”, “telegenic”, “cool” Kirk / Lange / Clinton / Blair / Obama type that Lefty activists and MSM always orgasm over – and who always disappoint, for which I’m always grateful.
When the left get pummelled, their usual excuse is: “We didn’t get our message out.”
In other words, they cannot and will not admit that their policies are shit.
My impression is that she knows bugger all about finance. Nick K knows more.
Ever since she cooed over vax passes on Nick Mills’ Newstalk ZB morning show, I have been very suspicious of her. More lately, she’s warned Luxon that if he wants to change abortion laws, she is out. We have legalised abortion to right before birth, which should be a no-brainer to change. So, IMO, there is something terribly wrong with her & therefore she should not be anywhere near finance.
LM … the abortion debate is a settled issue … there won’t be one and, if there was, it would be determined on a conscience vote transcending Party lines. The feedback from industry leaders and movers and shakers in the finance world would indicate that they are very comfortable with Willis in that role … not sure where you are coming from you’re entitled to your opinion.
the abortion debate is a settled issue … there won’t be one and, if there was, it would be determined on a conscience vote transcending Party lines.
ACT didn’t help with their support of the restrictions on protests around abortion clinics, which sounds okay in theory IF you assume such protests are going to be loud or even violent. But looking at what happened in Britain recently I wonder when we’ll see the same here:
Arrested for praying silently across an abortion clinic. Literal Thought Crime
And there were British people who were fine with this:
One Twitter commentator refused to accept that hair-splitting BS:
If it can happen in Britain it can happen here, and after what I’ve seen of Kiwis and Cops during Covid lockdowns, I’d bet such an arrest would be fully supported by the majority.
“Don’t know much about her background.”
According to Wikipedia:
She graduated with a first-class honours degree in English literature from Victoria University of Wellington in 2003,[6] and earned a post-graduate diploma in journalism from the University of Canterbury in 2017
After graduation, she took up a position as a research and policy advisor for Bill English and went on to serve as a senior advisor to John Key in 2008[8] In 2012, Willis joined dairy co-operative Fonterra, taking on senior management roles, as well as serving on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand
Am not aboard with the labour scenario, there will be some more fortunate who will find another trough but there is an inexhaustible supply of airhead socialists who know nothing yet consider they collectively know best, to step right in.
The current Prime Minister an outstanding example.
With the welfare state masking the abject failures of socialism it is extremely unlikely Labour will ever threaten Bill English barely getting 20% in 2002, however with an educated voting public and they would struggle to get the 5%
From afar:-
“Jacx will not lead Labour into the election”
Vet, you don’t seem to understand, they’ve got no one else who knows how to smile and wave. (Of course, she doesn’t know how to do anything else.)
Vet, I assume by “jacx” you mean the current communist dictator.
There is no bloody way it will give up it’s position voluntarily and there’s not a single one of the groupies in Labour who have the ability to alter that situation.
The other predictions I have very little argument with although I point out that those who don’t live in NZ have supported the Reds election after election – I doubt that will change.
As for the racist apartheid group ( both segregational and communist), I suspect they will lose, not gain.
Reblogged this on Utopia, you are standing in it!.
The Maori Caucus in Labour will desert to the Maori Party en bloc.