My thought when I saw the title of this economics piece:
MMT Is Dead. It Must Now Be Buried for Good
MMT stands for Modern Monetary Theory and you’ve likely seen it pushed by Lefties in the last decade, including some commentators here.
It was never as smart as its proponents claimed, being merely an extension of Keynesian economics, except that with MMT the government simply blew created credit into an economy and then used increased tax rates to suck it back out when the economy grew too hot (meaning inflation) – as opposed to the rather mundane world of Keynes where the State simply runs budget deficits and piles up debt during a recession and then runs budget surpluses during economic expansion and uses those to pay down the debt.
New Zealand actually did this from the early 1990’s until recently under a succession of National and Labour governments, which is quite admirable, but most governments around the world – especially the USA – have abandoned that approach in the last two decades and run endless deficits and piled up debt even during good economic times.
Central banks aided this by crushing interest rates to zero and then keeping them there for years after a recession had passed. This so-called Quantitative Easing (QE) was basically MMT, but without the rise in taxation to control the money supply. Given how reluctant even Left-wing governments are to raise taxes that was always going to be the case; one of MMT’s fatal flaws:
Like water, though, money eventually finds its way and breaks the dam. With stocks and crypto and real estate headed to the moon, it was only a matter of time before all that money found its way to consumer goods. Inflation, as we commonly understand it, had arrived. It was mathematically pre-ordained, and yet still somehow unexpected.
I feel the need to add “DUH” to this statement. But to be fair to MMT, the old Keynesian theory had a fatal flaw also:
In his basic economic textbooks, Professor Paul Krugman preaches Keynesianism. He teaches students about a government spending multiplier. In his fairy tale, the government spends a dollar and the economy grows by more than a dollar. The student’s first question should be: Where does that dollar of spending come from? The student’s next question should be: If this mystical multiplier were in fact real, then why not spend and spend and spend?
That magical multiplier had already begun to fail in the wake of the GFC in 2008. It could be argued that in pre-1970’s Western economies it could be seen. But in the wake of the GFC, no matter how much money was tipped into the US economy by the State, there was no sight of a multiplying factor.
In fact it seemed that all the money was just soaked up. Obama was constantly disappointed by the economic growth and job numbers in the wake of his 2009 stimulus bill (The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act): he truly believed it would work. Naturally Paul Krugman claimed it failed because at $787 billion it wasn’t big enough: he wanted $2-3 trillion. Given that it’s 13 years later he probably wants $4-5 trillion now.
And that’s why MMT and Keynes are not dead and buried. Because governments are addicted to spending ever more money – especially Left-wing governments, but as we see with the British Conservative government and the GOP in America, the Right are little better – and whatever economic theory supports that desire will continue to live.
it’s all very good until it comes crashing down. NZ now has more debt than it can ever pay back.
We’re not as bad as Japan, where it’s more than 250% of GDP, and the US, where it’s more than 100% and heading for 200%+ by the 2030’s – and that’s probably conservative because economic “shocks” run about once a decade and governments hit the Keynesian panic button every time.
Whether the US can continue doing that with interest rates heading for 10% AND $40-50 trillion in debt is one of the big questions. And if those figures sound crazy bear in mind that when I first started writing about this stuff on No Minister in 2019 the US debt was $22 trillion and now it’s $31.5 trillion just three years later.
Part of the problem is what defines the value of currentcy, and can this go on indefinitely?
If I had more debt than I can ever repay, aren’t I technically bankrupt?
As an aside, what I find interesting about the Ukraine/Russia event, is the financial war going on in the background.
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Sixty years ago it was called Social Credit, promoted by Kaikohe crackpot Vern Cracnell.
New Zealand actually did this from the early 1990’s until recently under a succession of National and Labour governments, which is quite admirable.
Seems to me to be exactly the reasoning Mr Muldoon used to justify “Think Big”.
I’ve never seen you refer to Muldoon as “quite admirable”.
Muldoon predates the 1990’s of course, and Think Big was about government investment to build core industry – what Labour called “the commanding heights of the economy” – rather than just dumping money into the economy and waiting for the Multiplier Miracle to happen.
Having said that, both theories are delusions and while there’s no question that Muldoon was a Keynesian (everybody was until the 1980’s), that wasn’t the thinking behind Think Big.
Borrow money that will be paid back by surpluses caused by independence from foreign markets.
It appears to be the same economic theory to me.
Other factors made Muldoon’s economic management a failure (protectionism etc.), or, of course, I could be just shit-stirring.
Beats discussing that a private citizen doesn’t want to communicate with someone/thing else.
MMT – practiced very successfully by the USSR. Until the demise of the said USSR.
Keynesianism is predicated on a similar principle to the film Field of Dreams. In that movie, the mantra was “If you build it, they will come.” In economic terms, it becomes “If you spend it, it will exist”. Keynes operated on the hope that, if you just print money and spend it, the economy will be stimulated to the point where it will soon turn into real wealth.
This is not a complete bollocks theory, of course. Printed money invested in capital will often result in some stimulation whereby wealth is created that didn’t exist before. But it is never even close to enough such that the dollar you create generates a dollar (or more) of real wealth. It’s always much, much less, and the result is that the created dollar will simply be absorbed into the current level of wealth, causing inflation.
The only way economies grow is if capital resources (ie. real, pre-existing wealth) are maximized and directed to those with innovative, wealth-creating ideas. And since governments are completely unable to detect and put any such system in place, the best way we have to date of ensuring this happens is to liberate the free exchange of goods and services between individuals so that capital flows naturally to innovaters without interference.
I think there’s a symbiotic relationship with what I wrote about in All the right connections
Reblogged this on Utopia, you are standing in it!.