I put this on Facebook about an hour ago and just now thought – why not share my predictions here as well. So here we go.
I expected Roy Morgan to publish their September Poll this week especially as they were the most accurate pollsters for the 2020 election and I think 2017 as well. To compensate I have re run their August poll published on 5 September along with my own predictions.
| Party | Roy Morgan(%) | Me on 13/10/2023 (%) |
| National | 31 | 37 |
| ACT | 18 | 15 |
| Labour | 24 | 24 |
| Greens | 13 | 9 |
| NZFirst | 5 | 6 |
| Maori Party | 4 | 2 |
I will be watching the NewstalkZB coverage tomorrow night on YouTube with interest. It will also enable me to keep track of the HB v Wellington NPC Semi Final.
Do not forget to vote tomorrow if you haven’t voted already.
No Minister 
I am hoping for ACT to be second and so push labour back a peg…
That would be good Kevn but maybe a step too far in this election. If they can get around 20MP’s after tomorrow then maybe in 2026 your hope will be fulfilled.
Perhaps you could try a draft on word, then copy image to NM.
When all else fails, ask Tom.
Thanks Adolf – my skills don’t allow plan a.
Plan b could be an option.
😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
Thanks Tom – I assume it was you who tidied my mess up.
pdm … I think you are about right except for ACT. Seymour has presided over a halving of their vote … to the point where they are likely to end up on Sunday with less MPs they had on election day … by any measure he ran a clusterf**k of a campaign which, more likely than not, will see Winston First back in Parliament with potential ACT voters defecting to NZF in a ratio of 3:1 (with National picking up the dregs). Thanx a million Seymour … your legacy.
I will reserve judgment until about this time tomorrow Vet.
I think Polls over the last two weeks have distorted the dislike for Labour and its fellow travellers, including NZFirst.
Plus I was disappointed Roy Morgan did not front in the last week or so.
Poll results aren’t actual votes (obviously). We will only know the actual level of party support later tonight. Because Seymour is in Parliament it was natural for ACT’s support level to be higher than Winston who is out of Parliament. Now that Winston is in full campaign mode it is also natural that he would erode votes from Nats and ACT. Roll on 7pm 👍
I voted with a view to looking myself in the mirror and sleeping well at night. Like Trump, I have little in common with Brian Tamaki’s personal life and religious views, but I read his policies and agreed with them all, so that’s where my vote went. I joked about him being a successful businessman, but it was only a half joke. If you can run a prosperity gospel church, you can’t do much worse than the the clowns running our country now.
I think on balance National/ACT would be positive for law and order, bur that’s the only concession I’ll make to them. I really don’t care if Labour squeak back in after all. NZ is already a shtshow. Nobody is offering any hope. If anything, I hate National more than Labour, because at least Labour don’t pretend to be, as Key once milquetoestedly phrased, “ambitious for New Zealand”.
Voting for that party is about as effective as drawing a c&b on your voting form in my opinion. I have more chance of a hot date with Tay tay than he does of winning a seat in Parliament 🙂
A c&b would have equally conveyed my political views! I considered the Tamaki vote the equivalent of a gigantic middle finger to the political process. As Solzhenitsyn once said, if evil is to come, let it come, but not through me.