In parliaments and legislatures around the world, a common prior career for many politicians is to serve in the Armed Forces. I’m thinking particularly the UK, Australia, Canada and the USA in the West, not to mention South Korea and Singapore from two of the more ‘democratic’ Asian countries (well, more or less!).
How does NZ fare after the last election? Let’s look by party, including unsuccessful candidates:
| Party | Successful | Unsuccessful |
| Labour | Nil | Daniel Rosewarne (Waimakariri, 32) |
| ACT | Nil | Ben Harvey (Selwyn, 15) |
| NZ First | Nil | Nil (Darroch Ball was campaign manager, now CoS I think) |
| Greens | Nil | Nil |
| TPM | Nil | Nil |
| National | Andrew Bayly (TF Army, unknown corps) Chris Penk (RNZN / RAN) Joseph Mooney (TF Army Infantry) Vanessa Weenink (RF Army Doctor) Tim Costley (RNZAF helicopter pilot) Shane Reti (TF Army Doctor) Tim van de Molen (TF Army Infantry) Penny Simmonds (TF Army, unknown corps) | Nil |
It was a pity that Dan Rosewarne wasn’t rated higher than he was. He is proper old-school Labour – working class roots, a hard-working man from a trade (vehicle mechanic before he commissioned to be an officer), faithful family man (even married to a woman!). But those things don’t fit with the new Labour of academics, lawyers, unionists and activists, and so the odious Reuben Davidson was selected ahead of him in the safe seat of Christchurch East.
But looking at National, that is a fair amount of MPs who have served in the NZDF, in a wide variety of capacities.
One can only hope that the issues plaguing NZDF, such as the terrible state of the camps and bases and own goals kicked in the form of centralisation and corporatisation might get some attention from the new government. But I fear that buying new VIP planes for the RNZAF will take precedence over the issues which servicepeople actually care about.
No Minister 
The addition of Costley and Penk into the mix bodes well. We have had no one in Parliament with their level of professional Defence experience since ACDRE Frank Gill over 40 years ago. Yes this is the largest cohort of ex NZDF personnel in Parliament for 40 years, at least since the WW2 serviceman generation started to retire.
I have no problem with the NZ Government leasing an interim couple of aircraft for the next 4 years until the Boeing replacements are arrive in 2028. Leasing seems to be the likely option. In recent years we have spent $70 million trying to keep these things going. We will spend tens of millions more to keep them for another 5 years. Luxon would have a very good grasp on what are the numbers, contract types and to be honest deeper contacts in the aviation lease industry than anyone one in Defence acquisitions.
Under the original force structure plan following the 2016 White Paper the two Boeings were due to be replaced this very month (December 2023). Then they were pushed out to 2025, then 2028.
Moreover, they are not solely for VIP duties, which only make up around 25% of their allotted annual flying hours (which they never meet because they are crap). Their primary job is to rapidly undertake the strategic lift of HCU-6/E pallets and troops.
Of course with Andrew Little gone I have no trust that the remaining drones in the current Labour party will continue the recent bi-partisan approach to defence. My guess is that Labour will further align with the Greens and TPM position from now on. I would also expect that the MSM will continue to take the lefty shrill stance from the sidelines.
People should also note that unlike the past Luxon is traveling to Canberra today where defence and regional security will be the headline discussion and not just an also ran item on the trans-tasman prime ministerial agenda like in the past.
The critical issue is the next full budget this May. The current coalition government cannot be seen by our regional allies whom we want to work with and thus gain both security and economic advantages with, to drop below the current $6.51 Billion combined Vote Defence and Vote Defence Force appropriation benchmark for the next three budget cycles, and then from FY 2026/27 progressively build it up to 2% of GDP by 2030.
The $6.5 Billion investment into Defence this year was a good uplift by Andrew Little (1.5% of GDP) so for a National-ACT-NZ First to simply match that would be both hard for the left to criticise and frankly is needed to send a message to our allies that things have changed in NZ and that we can once again be taken seriously.
Frankly, if we want to get inside and benefit from the economic transformational benefits that can flow from our membership of AUKUS Pillar II over the next 30 years, we need to demonstrably start hitting the membership entry benchmarks of 2% of GDP as soon as possible. Beyond the media – hollywood celeb stuff Jacinda was not taken seriously in the capitals that mattered and nor was Henare or Mahuta. Dropping defence spending now would be very damaging to the new brand New Zealand that Luxon is trying to path.
That is also why I need Luxon, Judith and Winston on a plane at every opportunity over the next 12 months fronting up in Canberra, Singapore, Ottawa, Tokyo, Seoul, London and Washington DC. It is a hell of as lot more important right now for us to be seen and be keen than many people realise.
Thought you might be interested in this recent post about RAN by CDR Salamander, a retired US Navy guy, What a Balanced Fleet Looks Like
Yes I read his musings from time to time. Always thoughtful. He is right that fleet balance is important, and to a certain extent the RNZN needs to return to providing part of the balanced dimension of the RAN fleet just like we have recent done with Plan Anzac for the NZ Army.
With 1 RNZIR + supporting components to focus on amphibious warfare in the littorals and 1 NZSAS to be able to generate a Special Operations Task Group the force structure design of the RNZN in how it delivers for us within the context of much more combat focused combined operations where we are bedded down into specific ADF units (7th or 1st Brigade) is going to be interesting.
IIRC Bayly was infantry and UK TF Paras. His twin brother retired as full Colonel of TF infantry as a Bn Commander having served in Timor and Sinai.