So says the WSJ in an article published just the other day:
U.S. defense spending falls to a projected 2.4% of the economy in 2034, down from an estimated 3.1% this year, which is half the nearly 6% spent during the 1980s when the U.S. was rearming to win the Cold War.
And it’s also not far above the levels that Trump demanded from NATO members.
No doubt there will be many in the West who will be ecstatic about this news. They’ve been gagging for this news for eighty years.
It’s also hard to argue with when you read about not just broad spending data but detailed examples:
On our side of the Pacific, carrier production is behind schedule, over budget, and has less than zero room for error. Bryan McGrath warned in a new Defense One report that the Navy’s plan to delay production of our next Ford-class carrier by two years would result in layoffs and further erode our shipbuilding base.
“These developments would represent steep challenges to the continued production of aircraft carriers. And because many suppliers of aircraft carrier parts also furnish components for submarines (both are nuclear-powered), the delay would also undermine the already insufficient submarine industrial base,” he wrote.
Also, the Navy will sacrifice production of a vital Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine in this year’s budget to free up funds to keep suppliers in business
How is the USA going to produce those nuclear subs for Australia when they can’t even meet their own needs? And it’s not just the US Navy:
Next year, the Air Force will retire 250 aircraft, “dropping its total aircraft inventory below 5,000, an unprecedentedly small number,” according to Air and Space Forces. “The Air Force wants to purchase 42 F-35As and 18 F-15EXs—a total of 60 new fighters. That will not meet the service’s stated long-term goal of at least 72 new fighters annually.”
What’s behind this is not just problems with America’s strategic thinking and senior officer class following the Obama purge of a few years ago (he fired an unprecedented 197 senior officers in five years), but also the increasing impact of America’s relentlessly growing US deficits, debt and interest payments. This was always going to happen if those things were not reversed.
Admittedly China is not in great economic shape either from the perspective of debt/GDP ratios, economic growth and economic and social problems. But if push comes to shove they can direct spending from other parts of the economy and their already minimal social welfare systems, towards continuing to build their military. After all, they’re a Communist nation with the usual centralised command and control, plus the usual security forces and the callousness required to use them to suppress any whingers.
No Minister 