Two reports on Iran, neither of them good on their own but put together they could be literally explosive.
According to a report from the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Iran has increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium from 121.5 kilograms to 142.1 kilograms in just the last few months.
IAEA’s latest reporting shows Iran is steadily increasing its proximity to nuclear weapons. The Biden admin. naively believes Tehran is undertaking restraint via indirect talks and U.S. sanctions relief…
The term “enriched” means that the proportion of the isotope U-235 in a chunk of Uranium metal has been increased from its natural concentration of just 0.7% to higher levels. Getting it to 60% is the hard part, multiplying it almost 86 times (or 86-fold if you prefer, or 8,600%). It is then a trivial and fast effort to use the same process – in the case of Iran, ultra-high-speed centrifuges – to increase the concentration, the “enrichment”, to the 90%+ level needed for an atomic bomb (that’s a multiplication of just 1.5 times). Given their stockpile and estimated processing capacity (based on what’s been produced to date), it would take them about seven days.
In other words, after decades of effort, Iran is now at the breakout point to produce a nuclear weapon – and not just one either.
Iran had enough enriched uranium to produce 13 weapons after the uranium is enriched to 90%. The regime could produce nearly four weapons right now using just its stock of 60% enriched uranium.
Then there’s the fallout (no pun intended) from the recent death in a helicopter accident of the asshole pictured below, President Ebrahim Raisi. As good as it was to hear the news – and a lot of Iranians cheered – it was always likely that he’d be replaced by someone just as bad, or even worse.
That process of replacement is still underway but the really bad news is that it may have destablised the regime:
In the immediate aftermath of Raisi’s death, Khamenei faces the daunting task of replacing his most trusted enforcer. The regime is likely to intensify its crackdown on dissent and ramp up its destabilizing activities abroad in an effort to maintain power and control. However, these actions may only accelerate its downfall by further alienating the Iranian people and attracting greater international condemnation.
On that last note we can hope, but a shaky, paranoid regime armed with nuclear weapons is more frightening than a totalitarian regime so equipped. Adding to the shakiness the Foreign Minister was also killed:
The loss of Foreign Minister Abdollahian compounds the regime’s predicament. Abdollahian was instrumental in cementing the IRGC’s dominance over Iran’s foreign policy, ensuring the regime’s aggressive posture in the region. His absence disrupts this delicate balance and weakens the regime’s strategic foothold.
The words about Raisi, “trusted enforcer”, are not hyperbolic. Back in the late 1980’s, as Tehran’s deputy prosecutor, Raisi played a key role in the Death Commission that executed thousands of political prisoners.
Raisi was more than just a functionary; he was Khamenei’s enforcer, unwaveringly obedient, and fiercely hardline. His departure leaves Khamenei in a precarious position, struggling to find a successor who can match Raisi’s zeal and loyalty.
When the USSR began collapsing in 1991 there were fears about what might happen to their nuclear weapons, but there was comfort still in MAD and the fact that the Soviets military command and control structures seemed to be intact even as the political ones were falling apart.
In this case Iran does not yet actually have a nuclear weapon (or four), but if they’re this close you have to wonder what Israel will do? Will their long-standing Cold War go hot? Their war against Hamas in Gaza is ongoing but appears to have reached the mopping up stage (which admittedly could last months), and as I pointed out in the Cold War article, their next target will likely be the Hezbollah terrorist group to the North.
But an Iran with nuclear weapons would likely take precedence. Given the 7-day breakout period we can only assume that Israel’s spies in Iran, which have proven close to the nuclear program in the past, are keeping a stop-watch on things and that a secret trigger point has not yet been reached; it seems the prime reason so far why Israel has not struck, even more so than their wars with Hamas and Hezbollah.
No Minister 
Apart from the United States, since it was the first, every nation that has developed nuclear weapons has had a nuclear armed adversary they wished to deter.
Soviet Union vs the USA, 1949. The UK vs the Soviet Union, 1952. France vs The Soviet Union (and secretly NATO), 1960. China vs the USA and the Soviet Union, 1964. India vs China 1974. Pakistan vs India, 1998. North Korea vs the USA 2006.
There is one notable exception from this list, Israel (Apartheid South Africa might count as a partial exception but their program was a joint one with Israel).
If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, then they will be following the same strategic logic that America, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea but not Israel have followed.
The usual counter argument to this is that Israel is a special case and that the normal rules don’t apply to them because they are facing “mad dog” mullahs who follow an apocalyptic death cult.
Israel is a special case, and they don’t follow the normal rules, but if they were really facing mad mullahs then that would be considerably to their advantage as the mad are easy to beat.
But to paraphrase Forrest Gump, “Crazy is as crazy does” and arming yourself with nuclear weapons when facing an enemy armed with nuclear weapons is far from crazy. It’s perfectly rational and eight other nations have done it.
Is Shia Twelver Islam an apocalyptic death cult? Perhaps, but there is plenty of that going around, especially in the middle east. Christian Zionist explicitly want the battle of Armageddon and end of the world and think they need Israel and the destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque to achieve it.
Who is closer to having their finger on the red button right now, a Mullah or a Zionist?
Zionism is a political ideology wheres as Judaism is a religion and Islam is both.
And we’ve effectively been “trusting” the Zionists for more than fifty years not to press the red button – and by we I mean all those Arab nations that could have gotten nuclear weapons if they wanted to, being not short of money, but who didn’t because they clearly didn’t think the Zionists were that nuts.
By contrast it’s been pretty clear for at least two decades that the Saudis may well go nuclear if Iran does.
Will be interesting to see if some thing major happens inside Iran sponsored by Israel in the next few months.
If Iran are as close as you imply then the logic of the 7 Oct attack becomes clearer…..
A distracted Israel fighting Gaza may be dropping the ball on preventing Iran getting the bomb….