Economists have the least influence on policy where they know the most and are most agreed; they have the most influence on policy where they know the least and disagree most vehemently.”

I’d never heard of it before and it’s quoted in this review of a book called “Free Lunch Thinking – How Economics Ruins the Economy” by a guy called Tom Bergin. The reviewer says that Bergin really does understand free market economics, in the sense that he could pass an “Ideological Turing Test”:

…that is, he could write an article pretending to be a free-marketeer, and actual free-marketeers would not spot that he is not really “one of them”.

But he most definitely is not “one of them”, being opposed to much of it. The review’s critiques amount to the following:

  • It’s not actually a critique of economics, Bergin just picks a side within the economics community.
  • Most of his criticisms are of small-state, pro-market economics, which is little different to that of other Lefty economists like Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz.
  • Most of the issues covered are where there’s not much agreement between economists and lots of competing studies, with more produced every day. So when he says that some pro-market idea has been “debunked” one could easily find other studies that “debunk” his arguments.
  • The book seems to be stuck in the Reagan-Thatcher era when small-state, free-market thinking was in the ascendency. In the wake of the GFC and general economic malaise, that’s far from the case now, especially on the Right-wing side of politics, where things like Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods are far more accepted than the 1980’s GOP (or the 1990’s Democrats) would have believed possible.
  • Economists are not as influential as Bergin claims they are, from the following quote made me laugh:

    But how influential are economists, free-market or otherwise, really? Politicians constantly ignore economic advice, and do things which make economists tear their hair out. Perhaps ironically, this is especially the case in areas where the empirical literature is relatively conclusive, and where there is something approaching a consensus among economists.

Thus the reference to “Murphy’s Law of Economic Policy” and the reviewers observation that:

Economists are influential when they are not just economists, but also public intellectuals and commentators. The aforementioned Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz come to mind, and so do Thomas Piketty, Mariana Mazzucato, Yanis Varoufakis, and Ha-Joon Chang. Of course, none of those could be remotely described as free-marketeers.

Still, I think I’ll try and borrow the book from a library. As befits a modern free-marketer there’s no way I’ll be paying for it but will instead free-ride on my fellow tax-payers. 😆