The Russian Ukrainian war is entering a fascinating stage, the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end ,to paraphrase Churchill.?

Russia will never be the same again, the forces at play are so huge  that ultimately Russia is going to have to change. The new Czar will face an economic situation that rivals the planet Mars and aren’t we all so lucky to be alive to see it play out. The end of what Bonaparte started way back in 1812.

The Ukrainians selected a very auspicious month and a very auspicious part of Russia to invade. In Russia the month of August is called the month of curses, as most disasters in Russia occur in this month. The 1991 coup occurred in this month, and of course the Kursk submarine sank in this month. The Kursk sinking showcased Putin’s cruelty and lack of human feeling but it also exposed his lack of ability to organise and run disasters.

The Ukrainian left hook is what I am calling it. Brilliant miliary strategy that I am sure even Bonaparte would admire. I also believe the Ukes have understated the number of troops involved deliberately. I have watched a lot of video and I reckon they could have 20,000 to 25,000 men troops there. As someone said always reinforce success.

And believe me Kursk attack is so important on so many levels as is the choice of Kursk as the target. This is no simple feint to back out of when the going gets tough. The question in my mind is how far will the Ukes be prepared to drive ?

You see 25-35% of Russian GDP is generated around Moscow, mainly in IT and services. St Petersburg contributes about another 15%. Kursk less than 1%, so you think ah it’s a shithole. Nope, it is a vital agricultural state for Russia as it borders the great fertile farmlands of Ukraine. This year there will be no planting, next year there will be no harvesting. Prices of food in Moscow are rocketing as Russians begin to realise. The neighbouring state to Kursk, is exactly the same, vital for agriculture.

Bet you didn’t know there is only one combine harvester manufacturing plant in Russia. No parts , no repairs, no manufacture, therefore no harvest, due to sanctions. But there are no youth to work at the plant, there is no youth to work in construction, there is no youth to work in refinery repairs, there are no youth to work on war repairs.

Labour shortages and capital shortages (physical assets) are all in short supply and the price is going through the roof.

They are literally down to their army conscripts. But due to the unwritten rule families surrender their children for training but they can t be sent to the front. Of course they were languishing in Kursk, now they are dying like flies or surrendering. The Russian mothers are coming out on the streets.

Russia chose Guns not butter, in that famous economic “saw” from my youth. Plenty of tank factories but only one combine harvester plant at Rostov on Don.

Russia is finished, there is no way out. This winter, if they don’t surrender, then economic Armageddon is knocking at the door.

As a famous American economist noted rural Russia is on a par with Rural Kenya economically. In Kenya people are happy as they have a future and it is sunny, Russia has no future and winter is coming