Oh dear, this again?

The reason for these comments from Putin is outlined here:

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said “I talked to Blinken two days ago, and he is traveling with his counterpart from the UK to Kyiv to basically tell them that they will allow them [to hit Russia with ATACMS]” during an interview at TribFest24 on Friday

Using ATACMS means deep strikes inside Russia, and while there’s no concrete decision yet Putin is assuming that it’s been made, which is probably the correct conclusion.

But surely Putin can’t be surprised, unless he thinks that Russia’s continued use of poorly targeted ballistic missiles hitting military as well as civilian targets in Ukraine while the latter is prohibited from hitting their launch sites and other military targets inside Russia, was going to continue forever? In fact Ukraine has hit such sites, but usually only with drones, which pack a limited punch compared to something like ATACMS or the British-French Storm Shadow cruise missile, and on that last it sounds like the Brits are onboard with the USA and France.

So, WWIII it is, correct? Well maybe not!

Perhaps that’s why this well-known Russian “milblogger” is so unhappy about the current situation.

I get that these milbloggers have served a useful purpose inside Russia in keeping patriotic sentiments stirred up over this war, but they’ve always been a double-edged sword for Putin, and Guzenko has not been alone in criticising the Russian military as a way of helping it fight better in Ukraine.

But when you start attacking Putin himself – Guzenko even saying that “Grandpa” (Putin) had “soiled himself” – I’d say you’ve entered Wagner Group world, with the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin staring you in the face.

Having said that either Putin’s grip on power has become so weak and feeble that Guzenko feels he can get away with this, or something else is going on that we don’t yet understand. See The Russian ultra-nationalists defying Putin – New Statesman for more details on this growing phenomenon.

As far as the overall war is concerned, I can’t see it ending in a victory for either side, either in terms of Russia’s original plan of taking over the whole country, or Ukraine pushing the Russian Army back to the original borders of 2022. Neither side has the combat power to achieve those aims and that’s been obvious since at least early 2023.

There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement sooner or later. Both sides will hate it but it’s either that or a forever war. Perhaps Putin will continue to hold fast to things that Ukraine regards as non-negotiable (I can’t see them accepting the total loss of the Black Sea coast). Perhaps the West can outlast Russia in military production – see this report of the rapidly expanding US and European production of 155mm artillery shells. But the sheer lack of bodies will be the ultimate decider sooner or later, reducing the ability of both sides to advance, even for Russia, which has five times the population of Ukraine. At a certain point for both nations, no “Code Red” will be sufficient to press more men into service.

It will turn into a 21st century Verdun of sporadic artillery and missile exchanges. Sadly, perhaps that has to happen for talks to begin.