In the closing days of the US election a pollster with a good reputation went to Iowa to conduct a poll for the Capital Newspaper, The Des Moines Register. It was published, giving Harris an election winning advantage over Trump (The Shock Iowa Poll – DPF on Kiwiblog), if conflated with the seven so called Battleground States, many of which are needed to get to the Magic 270 Electoral College votes to become the president.
It was a rogue Poll that the Democrat supporters all hung their hats on. Anne Selzer is gold standard yet this poll turned a three point lead for Trump into a three point lead for Harris, a six point swing that would decide the election.
It was always entirely unlikely as all federal house seats for Iowa are Republican held, both Senate seats are in the Red column, and in fact in state politics there is a decided bias to the Republican Party.
Add in the fact that in 2016 and 2020 Iowa was Trump’s, and the Poll from Anne Selzer must now be inquired into as to its shattered veracity.
How to (not) win votes in Florida…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fema-official-directed-hurricane-relief-workers-avoid-homes-trump-signage-agency-conducts-cleanup
I thought Farrar blogging on that poll was one of the most pathetic things I’ve ever seen. Every other fucking poll of Iowa was showing Trump with a healthy lead. Polling is literally the man’s job, but he decided he would be intellectually dishonest and wishcast on that shit anyway. It’s the sort of thing that makes it hard to take him seriously even when he’s blogging about things I agree with him on.
Can you explain why anyone bothers to read Kiwiblog? It is a complete mystery to me.
Because I often find myself wondering: What do Benedict Yu and David Garrett think about this issue?
But seriously, it’s because it was a good blog twenty years ago, in the same way that Bill Kristol was a respected political pundit, and George W Bush was the OG Literal Hitler. At this point it’s just pining for a simpler time when Britney Spears was still somebody people wanted to have sex with.
(to be fair, I still would with Britney. Her crazy/hot ratio is a little high these days, but… I can fix her…)
It’s the only way I know even some of what’s happening in NZ. 😂