I think it shows a middle of the road perspective after the two polls from last week that basically contradicted each other. It also raises a point that I read about or heard discussed briefly in the last 4 or 5 days – I will cover my interpretation of that after these polling details.

National 31.50%

ACT 12.00%

NZFirst 6.50%

Total 50.00%

Labour 29.00%

Greens 11.50%

Maori Party 4.50%

Total 45.00%

So a 5% gap opens up – not forgetting the effect of the possible overhang the Maori Seats may bring.

TOP feature in this poll at 3.00%. Will they give the Maori Party a nudge for the 6th place Party Vote wise in the 2026 election? Early days but, it seems they may now have a core constituency around the same 3% I believe is where the Maori Party sits without the benefit of their `Special Electorate Seats’ which of course result in the overhang.

Other Minor Parties and there are five or six of them, come in collectively at 2%.

Now The Situation I referred To Above.

Someone somewhere raised this prospect last week. I cannot remember if I read it or heard it but here is the guts of it.

What will the electoral scenario look like if both National and Labour continue their slow but, steady polling slide to the extent that both parties finish up below 30% and bear in mind in this Poll Labour are already there and National are nudging it in most if not all the recent polls. Such slides would almost certainly provide growth for ACT, NZFirst and probably the Greens – I don’t see any growth for the Maori Party but, it could bring TOP further into the picture – who would they go with?

Envisage this – National 27% and Labour 25% – there is a lot of slack to be picked up. Where will it go?

Tell us what you think in the comments.

As always Roy Morgan have a lot more information to absorb so here is a link to the whole shebang.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9963-nz-national-voting-intention-may-2025

BTW there will be a Taxpayers Union Curia Poll in a day or two I should think- will that thicken the plot more?

An after thought

I thought a link to Michael Laws analyses of the two earlier polls might be helpful too.

Michael Laws Analyses The Two Polls Earlier In The Week.