For the tenth straight month neither major party has managed to secure a third of the vote.
The survey results for July would lead to 63 seats (down five seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 57 seats (up two seats) for the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition.
Here are the details:
National 31.0%
ACT 10.5%
NZFirst 9.5%
Total 51.0%
Labour 31.0%
Greens 11.5%
Maori Party 3.5%
Total 46.0%
Other total 3% but are not specified.
Biggest winner is NZFirst up four seats and who knows what Winston Peters will do with the negotiating flexibility that number of seats will give him. I for one would not rule out him going with Labour if they dump Hipkins in the next few months and then I think of the damage that did from 2017 to 2023 and shudder.
As always Roy Morgan include a lot of other information and data so here is the usual link.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9984-nz-national-voting-intention-july-2025
No Minister 
I think that Winston will stick with National. He’s managed to play in the sandpit and share his toys with David Seymour, and I’m sure he’d rather do that then with Chloe in a Labour/NZ First/Greens coalition (with maybe TPM just for laughs)
NR you are probably right but, he does have form in seeking the best baubles and looking for the weakest link.
You fall in to the trap of crap.
Winston put Jacinda in power in 2017
But NOT in 2020!!
I am with Nick.
Keep in mind that Winston has all that he wants now.
Millionaire lifestyle via his girlfriend.
Minister Baubles and deputy PM status.
World travel (Min Foreign Affairs
Why on earth would he go to a bushfire with a labour Green coalition.????
Also, not sure of his health, smoking and lots of whisky probably meaning he may not last the next election cycle. At 80 years old and Maori Ancestry on his fathers side his horizon will be limited????
Winston as Kingmaker is a very scary thought.
Winston as kingmaker in the next election is akin to giving the deaf, dumb and blind kid an AK47 and crying out SHOOT!
Winston Peters propensity to partner with either major political party has seen him essentially deciding the outcomes of the 1996, 2017 and 2023 general elections! Each election having enough bargaining power to secure the role of deputy prime minister.
The man who eschewed the “baubles of office?”
If you look at it logically, what’s best for the country, and the easiest to go with, you’re guaranteed to get it wrong. With Winston you have to consider what’s best for Winston.
At this stage of the cycle I can see Winnie preferring to go with Labour – with or without Chippie. The main reason for this is they will be desperate and willing to offer Winnie the most.
Bald Jacinda’s performance so far will make it an easy sell to Winnie’s fan base.
What a shame New Zealand has chosen to go with the Soviet-style politics giving New Zealand voters only a choice between incompetent communist A and incompetent communist B.
Should Winnie go with Labour makes a mockery of MMP.
The makeup of parties is supposed to be proportional but Winnie’s decision would then be completely out of proportion.
He has no love for Labour. He only went with them in a previous election BECAUSE BILL ENGLISH refused to work with him. Blame
B I L L ….
No Gill, Winston hated Bill from Winnie’s time in the National party. Winston bears a grudge and has a long memory. He would rather stuff the country than work with Bill.