No Minister

Posts Tagged ‘Covid-19 Stats

Only 49,791 to go

with 4 comments

New Zealand could be facing 50,000 daily Omicron infections by Waitangi weekend, according to modelling by a highly-respected, overseas health research organisation, peaking at about 80,000 each day just a few weeks later.

It gets worse, the “predictions” that is:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections, updated last Thursday, predict an outbreak in New Zealand lasting about three months, with death rates projected to total more than 400 by 1 May. Daily fatalities are predicted to spike at about 10 through mid March.

These are of course predictions and should be viewed as such, however they have been given credence by New Zealand’s leading experts including University of Otago professors Nick Wilson and Michael Baker: “Our impression is that this work is of high quality and should be considered by NZ policy-makers … [it’s] an organisation with a very strong track record for analysing health data (with some of the best epidemiologists, health data scientists and computer scientists in the world).”

These “modellers” obviously never spoke with the expert who said this less than a month ago:

Blakely said Omicron was “way less severe” thereby reducing the number of people that died or had to go to hospital.

“Omicron is less dangerous than Delta … we’re talking somewhere between 1-5 per cent of the mortality risk of a Delta infection.”

Yesterday New Zealand reported 209 cases.

All of this is the result of “science” and “medicine” being politicised. I’ll never believe any of them ever again.

Written by Nick K

February 5, 2022 at 11:00 am

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with

Hey Kids! It’s your Covid Jab Day

with 14 comments

I already wrote about the nonsense of vaccinating kids aged less then 12 against the “deadly” C-19 virus, in the post The kids are alright.

That article noted some of the horrendous reporting that has happened on this specific issue via places like the New York Times, where claims of 900,000 kids hospitalised with C-19 since early 2020 were so wrong even that publication had to correct its “facts”.

Scanning Newshub the other day I noticed that the trick is now simply not to mention at all the extraordinarily low numbers of kids getting sick and dying from Chinese Xi Snot virus. Charts like the following from the CDC in the USA will not be seen in our local MSM.

That’s basically the Delta virus at work, but the statistics for Alpha in 2020 were no different for young kids (and young adults).

Such a chart won’t be seen in our MSM for good reason; it might increase “vaccine hesitancy” and the government can’t have that. There’s also this from my previous post:

“Then for other children in the 5-11-year-old age group, you really have to put a high premium on ensuring safety. Because we know that once you’ve excluded that probably 2 or 3 per cent of children with severe other problems, then the rest of the children, the chance of them getting even more than a cold or something they may not even notice, is really very small.” 
– Peter McIntyre. Otago University professor of women’s and children’s health,

To be fair that quote actually did come from Stuff.co.nz, which had an entire article on the question of vaccinating kids for C-19. But it’s the only such article I’ve seen, and it’s hard to find even on Stuff unless you have the link.

I wonder how many of those who are vulnerable to the virus, clearly shown in the chart, feel any guilt or shame about this at all? My read is few.

Written by Tom Hunter

January 17, 2022 at 10:47 am

“I’m gonna shutdown the virus”

with 3 comments

Of course you aren’t, you imbecilic, senile old fool, and now even you realise it with case numbers like those.

Also, as predicted, Biden’s C-19 death toll has exceeded that of Trump’s, despite having vaccines, and with seven days to go in the first year of this “Administration”.

There’s also these things happening on his watch. From the Marietta, Georgia area.

In Fredericksburg, VA (H/T Instapundit)

If you look closely at the petrol pump in the first photo, you’ll see the “I did that” Biden sticker pasted to it and pointing at the gasoline price.

Somebody should start producing the same things for Ardern here in New Zealand. They’re going to be useful in 2022.

Covid statistic for the day

with 3 comments

From the New York Post:

New statistics show that more than 40 percent of the state’s hospitalized coronavirus-infected patients were admitted for “non-COVID reasons” — with the ratio in New York City “about 50-50,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said Friday.

Wednesday’s statewide 42 percent figure was up from 39 percent Tuesday, Hochul said during a news conference in Manhattan.

To reduce it to simple terms, In December in New York, patients admitted to all hospitals for aches and pains and other ailments, not Covid/are asymptomatic, but are routinely tested while in hospital, and they return a positive test. These patients are then reclassified to be a Covid patient. They’re then added to the list and voila, mysteriously we have 11,548 Covid patients in hospital in December in New York. But of that number being reported as Covid admissions 43% or 4,928 were not admitted suffering from Covid symptoms.

It’s a farce, and the public is being lied to and fooled.

Naturally, being the MSM, included with the story are these photos

UPDATE: Here are the numbers.

Written by Nick K

January 11, 2022 at 6:52 pm

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with

From ZOMG Omicron to “Long Covid”

with 6 comments

I’d already covered much of this in the post, Political Science, but other recent news is worth adding into the picture.

That was Dec 27 and just like clockwork, here’s the Associated Whores on Christmas Eve.

You’d have to dig deeper to discover the amazing fact about NYC, or that nearly every other state has also broken records. Like most of the MSM they rely on 80% of their readers not going beyond the headline.

Then there’s this Christmas news and the speculation about an end to Covid-shaming:

Of the top 10 states (including Washington, D.C.) with the highest COVID-19 infection rate at the moment, seven of them are governed by Democrats.

Unfortunately for CNN and MSNBC, that fact can’t be directly traced to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis so they’ve chosen not to really talk about it, but if they did, they might ask what Democrats are doing so wrong in D.C. (averaging 1,313 new cases each day), New York (32,566), New Jersey (14,028 ), Rhode Island (1,382), Delaware (1,029), Illinois (12,426), and Hawaii (1,361).

What’s going on? Why aren’t they Following The Science? Are Democrats trying to kill people?

The national media’s beloved New York, the place Saint Anthony Fauci once said was doing everything “correctly,” has seen a 55 percent increase in hospitalizations as of Monday. D.C. has seen a 94 percent increase.

Actually this is good news for two reasons.

First, because Omicron fear will not long survive the stats on low hospitalisation and death rates:

Second, because political fear is rapidly exceeding health fear:

The administration of floundering bozos who currently run the country are desperate to get out of the epidemic… Nothing is going to stop the butt-kicking coming in November, but it will be magnitudes worse if we aren’t out of the epidemic by then, so I predict that sometime in the spring, the Presidementia will declare victory and do everything possible to end all restrictions and return to “normal”, if we even remember what that was.  He and his party have to get the CV-19 millstone off their necks.

As pointed out yesterday the process has already started but I’ll let the Health Skeptic sum it up:

You can read the tea leaves from Fauci, Walensky, et al, the political stooges of the White House.  Backtracking as fast as they can from their former rigid orthodoxy about how the epidemic had to be handled.  Suddenly PCR tests aren’t reliable indicators of infectiousness and maybe every hospitalization and death attributed to CV-19 actually wasn’t caused by it.  Two Democrat governors have said very clearly that mask mandates are worthless and masks do nothing to stop the spread [“Well it’s not curbing the spike down in New York City, which is probably ground zero,” Connecticut Governor Lamont responded.] I am shocked that they were not instantly struck down with lightning bolts for such heretical apostasy to the mask religion.  The mass media, which is slavishly devoted to the interests of the progressive wing of the Dumocrat party, is even publishing articles about the need to move on.

Of course there are grifters out there for whom “moving on” means shifting the goal posts:

What exactly is “long COVID”? Good luck finding a solid, evidence-based answer to that. It’s typically described as a set of symptoms that could possibly be caused by the lingering effects of previously having the coronavirus. The problem? The symptoms in question (brain fog, low energy, etc.) are so generic that they could literally be caused by dozens of other ailments, or they could actually be nothing at all.

For example, as RedState reported months ago, a study out of the UK examined “long COVID” in children. Incredibly, the results showed that kids in the control group (i.e. those who never even had COVID) had a higher prevalence of “long COVID” symptoms than those who had actually been infected at the four-week and 12-week intervals of the study.

What does that tell you? Well, it seems to suggest that “long COVID” could very often just be people being human. Humans tend to get sick, have headaches, feel spaced out, etc. from time to time. To assign every preceding ill a person endures to a past COVID infection is highly dubious.

The perfect scam. You don’t have to actually prove that “long COVID” is highly prevalent and a serious issue. You can just claim that a whole group of common ailments that likely have nothing to do with C-19 are a result of “long COVID” and then demand others to prove the negative.

Written by Tom Hunter

January 8, 2022 at 6:00 am

They got it wrong again.

with 5 comments

Having already written in 2020 about the insanely wrong predictions made early that year by British epidemiological “expert”, Neil Ferguson, followed by his total hypocrisy in breaking his own lockdown rules for a little bit of crumpet on the side, I didn’t think I’d ever have to hear from him again.

I should have known better since that first post listed equally hysterical and wrong predictions from him going back twenty years across Swine Flu, Bird Flu and Mad Cow Disease. If they were still listening to him after those then his failures on the Chinese Xi Snot Alpha virus would not have stopped the MSM turning to him again for Omicron predictions:

I’ll let Mr Watson explain further.

Written by Tom Hunter

January 7, 2022 at 4:00 pm

The Newspaper of Record is mystified

with 2 comments

Mr Blow is one of the voices employed by the New York Times to explain what’s happening in the world to its otherwise mystified and unknowing “Liberal” readership.

Thus there is a problem when Mr Blow is the one who is mystified and unknowing, along with the rest of the NYT staff who apparently don’t know enough about the Chinese Xi Snot pandemic to be able to provide him with explanations.

It’s an even worse situation when he feels entirely comfortable in going public with his mystification and in so doing, revealing the problems of the little bubble in which he lives and works, thus providing amusement to the non-NYT worshipping crowd.

I’ll give just one small glimpse into the explanation Mr Blow is seeking: the CDC is not the only place where disease experts reside and the imprimatur of having a PhD and working for a government organ is not proof of being an expert, let alone a wise one (see also NASA, Department of Defence, Department of Education, NIH, …)

Written by Tom Hunter

November 14, 2021 at 3:37 pm

The kids are alright

with 20 comments

According to those who still pay attention to the NZ MSM, Chris Bishop – National’s Covid-19 Response spokesman – said on some TV program a few weeks ago that children will need to be vaccinated soon. In this he was merely parroting what we’ve been hearing from the government for a while now.

In the USA Pfizer, after weeks of pressing for children from 5-11 to be vaccinated, finally got the FDA to agree, though it is only “emergency” use.

What emergency is that? I’d like to think it’s for kids who have health problems that Covid-19 might take advantage of. But I suspect the fear pornography will be ramped up again to include all kids.

For example, did you know that 900,000 children were hospitalised with Xi Snot Virus on the USA in the last year, according to the New York Time’s dedicated Covid reporter?

At least they issued a correction, but what confidence can you have in such a reporter who can’t even get a basic count correct?

Of course the really important numbers would be how many of those 63,000 had other health problems, how many got severely ill, and how many died. The latter at least we know: 700 since the onset of Alpha, (to Nov 11) out of a nation of 330 million. Annualised it’s about 400.

Based on those figures, it would seem that New Zealand might have around 6 children under the age of18 die from Covid-19.

Each year about 100 children die from unintentional injury.

“Thinking that everyone must be vaccinated is as scientifically flawed as thinking that nobody should. COVID vaccines are important for older high-risk people, and their care-takers. Those with prior natural infection do not need it. Nor children.”

What fringe nutter said that? What weirdo website came up this guy?

Dr. Martin Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and a biostatistician and epidemiologist at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital. He helped develop the CDC’s current system for monitoring potential vaccine risks.

A Harvard Medical School colleague specializing in drug and vaccine safety research, Jeffrey Brown, said that Kulldorff is a “world-class” vaccine safety “superstar,” “His qualifications are spectacular,…He’s an international expert in vaccine safety. No one on earth would question whether he’s qualified. … He’s a pioneer.”

Okay. So what about the claims that the children will spread the virus, even if they don’t get sick and die from it? After all, even the great Dr Fauci has made this claim (yes, I know his history of bullshit and flip-flops):

The lecture took place shortly after the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) decided not to recommend vaccinating all children between the ages of 12 and 15 years old for COVID-19 after a risk-benefit analysis. 

During the lecture, Fauci discussed why he felt it was important to vaccinate children… Fauci referred to children as “vehicles of spread.”

Fauci discussed hospitalizations among children in the Southeast during the Delta surge. He said, “We are almost overrun. We have a lot of children in hospitals now. So even though, relatively speaking, compared to an adult they don’t get as seriously ill. We have lost more children from SARS-CoV-2 than we ever lose for influenza — and we vaccinate children against influenza.”

That was two months ago and even then the data did not support his claims:

First, the Southeast was experiencing a surge in the Delta variant while it had an offseason spike in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)According to the CDC, 58,000 children under the age of five are hospitalized for RSV annually and the symptoms are very similar to COVID-19. The CDC’s Associated Hospital Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) collects age-specific hospitalization data for COVID-19. Through September 11, 2021, the week with the highest number of hospitalizations for children under 18 during the Delta wave, 117 children in its network were hospitalized with COVID-19. The network includes Georgia, which Fauci cited specifically in his lecture. If pediatric beds were full, they were not filled with COVID-19-positive children even, if all 117 were in Georgia.

As regards child transmission:

There is no data to indicate that children transmit COVID-19 to adults at greater rates than they did early in the pandemic. An early genetic study in Iceland found that transmission almost always went from adults to children. We should study whether Delta changes that pattern. We should not assume (in order to justify vaccinating children) that because Delta is more transmissible, it has changed the pattern

We know that cases fell in schools in the UK during the Delta surge. Rates of transmission were lower in schools than in the surrounding community despite there being no masking requirements. No one knows why this was the case. It could be due to the twice-a-week testing requirement, the overall seroprevalence due to asymptomatic infections in children earlier in the pandemic, or the lower transmission rates for children. We should probably find out.

Fauci did not know what he was talking about.

This also came just after his public claims about booster shots blew up in his face. Fauci said that the third dose of the vaccine would provide maximum immunity and, along with President Biden, set the expectation that all vaccinated Americans would be eligible for a booster shot. Millions of Americans probably believed him.

Then the FDA voted against recommending COVID-19 booster shots for all Americans 16 and older. The vote was based on the clinical data and a risk-benefit analysis, and was not even close, with 16 voting against and only two voting for the broad-based booster. Fauci promptly did what he’s best at and scrambled to walk back his words by going on five Sunday talk shows.

The FDA discussions made public were an alert in themselves when it comes to kids:

Doran Fink, M.D., deputy director of the clinical side of the FDA’s Division of Vaccines and Related Products Applications, provided some insight into the frequency of myocarditis. The highest reporting rate in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is for young men between the ages of 16 and 17. Health claims data in the U.S. show an incidence of approximately 1:5,000, largely following the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. Israel, which has electronic medical records to base reports on, shows a rate of 1:6,000. Fink stressed that there is no data on the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following the third dose in any age group.

Dr. Arnold Monto, the acting committee chair, asked Fink if it was possible to determine at what age the side effect ceased to be a problem. Fink’s complete answer was astonishing.

“If you look at the healthcare claims data, you see that there is evidence of some attributable risk at all age groups, although, the older you get, the higher the risk of complications from COVID that offset the risk of myocarditis. So, when you look at the balances of risk versus benefit, what we really start to see is risk of myocarditis being higher [than COVID-19] in males under age 40.”

The following is an FDA chart on the benefits and risks of child vaccinations, and the tradeoff between ICU stays for COVID and ICU stays for myocarditis and pericarditis. The numbers for 5 – 11 year-old boys jumps out at you.

Incidently, before the claim is made that these are all “pandemics in the unvaccinated”, people should read this new analysis published in the European Journal of Epidemiology that shows no discernible relationship between the proportions of populations fully vaccinated and new Covid-19 cases.

Or you could address the study published by the CDC that refutes the common claim that COVID-19 is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” Coauthored by more than 50 MDs and Ph.D.’s, the study contains data on the vaccine status of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at 21 U.S. hospitals across 18 states from March to August of 2021. This article takes a look at it and the British figures, which are more detailed.

the study found that 13% of patients hospitalized with C-19 had been fully vaccinated. Moreover, that 13% figure is just the tip of the iceberg because the authors excluded from their study a large group of hospitalized C-19 patients, the bulk of whom were likely vaccinated.

About half of the omitted group and 27% of the C-19 patients in these hospitals were people with “immunocompromising conditions,” such as cancer, HIV, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, scleroderma, and Crohn’s disease. In the words of an FDA official and 18 other coauthors published in a medical journal, “immunocompromised individuals” were “prioritized for early immunization” and are “plausibly more likely to be offered and seek vaccination” because they are highly vulnerable to C-19.

The authors of the CDC study also excluded another 25% of all people hospitalized with C-19 because they were partially vaccinated, “received a COVID-19 vaccine other than Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, or Janssen [J&J],” or “received doses of two different COVID-19 vaccine products.”

Meantime from the British National Health Care system came this:

Filling the gap left by the vagueness of the CDC’s study, a precise measure of the vaccine status of people who died from the COVID-19 Delta variant is available from the United Kingdom, where the government keeps detailed healthcare records on nearly all citizens. Relevantly, the U.S. and U.K. have very similar C-19 death rates and had roughly equivalent vaccination rates over the period of the CDC study.

In the U.K. from February through August 2021, 62% of all COVID-19 Delta variant deaths were among the fully vaccinated. This amounts to a conclusive majority in a dataset with virtually every death included.

The article also contains a detailed list of the MSM sites and articles that pushed the claim and analysis of why there data was so misleading – and likely still is, since I’ve not heard any of this being walked back by them.

The story behind the talking point that COVID-19 is “a pandemic of the unvaccinated” is a textbook case of how false statistics are born and proliferate. Hence, it provides valuable insights into the dangers of blind trust and how to recognize deceitful rhetoric.

Perhaps somebody should ask the people at the Podium Of Truth whether NZ is, at a minimum, buying monoclonal antibody treatments? Some questions about vaccinating kids would be nice as well and although I was heartened by finding this Stuff article – Should we vaccinate kids? – it’s swamped by the alternative Narrative:

“Then for other children in the 5-11-year-old age group, you really have to put a high premium on ensuring safety. Because we know that once you’ve excluded that probably 2 or 3 per cent of children with severe other problems, then the rest of the children, the chance of them getting even more than a cold or something they may not even notice, is really very small.” – Peter McIntyre. Otago University professor of women’s and children’s health,

Written by Tom Hunter

November 13, 2021 at 12:17 am

Your Brain on Murder – and Covid-19

with 5 comments

A year ago, during the insanity of the BLM/Antifa riots across US cities that killed dozens, caused billions of dollars of property damage and screwed up a number of Central Business Districts (CBD’s), I came across a statistic that should not have surprised me but did.

The number of unarmed Black men that the public think are killed by the police in the USA in 2019, broken down by political ideology.

Putting that into an even simpler form:

Very Liberal respondents:

  • 14.29% said ‘about 10,000’
  • 31.43% said ‘about 1,000.’

Liberal respondents:

  • 6.67% saying ‘about 10,000’
  • 26.67% saying ‘about 1,000.’

According to the database at Mapping Police Violence, the number was actually 27 in 2019.

As you can see from the above chart, it’s the Moderate, Conservative and Very Conservative thinkers who have a much better grip on reality in this case.

Is it any wonder that these “Liberal” and “Very Liberal” people were all in on the BLM violence in 2020. I suppose you can at least say they’re genuine in their rage.

But then I ran across the same gap between reality and human minds on another issue, Covid-19, this one from a Gallup poll and splitting only by US political affiliation (Democrat, Independent, Republican):

Again making it even simpler, the percentages of those groups who think that the unvaccinated have a 50% chance of being hospitalized because of COVID:

  • 41% of Democrats believe that
  • 26% of Independents believe that
  • 22% of Republicans believe that.

The correct answer: Fewer than 1% of unvaccinated people infected with COVID will have to go to the hospital.

The good news, sort of, is that at least all three groups had a near majority thinking that the chances of vaccinated people being hospitalised is less than one percent, which is the correct answer for the USA:

The hospitalization rate for both vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID patients is under 1%:

  • The hospitalization rate for vaccinated COVID patients is 0.01%, or 1 out of every 10,914 patients
  • The hospitalization rate for unvaccinated COVID patients is 0.89%, or 1 out of 112 patients.

While it’s easy to be snide about the political and ideological mindsets that lead to such conclusions, if we like to think that most people, maybe more than 50%, are intelligent and rational enough to accept factual data – and god help me I want so much to believe that – then the fault for these massive differences from reality must lie with our MSM, Social Media and governments, who have such great influence in telling people what’s going on.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 7, 2021 at 6:46 pm

Faces are nice and numbers are boring.

with 4 comments

In my previous post, Fear Pornography, I said that with the great vaxathon behind them, Level 4 Lockdowns dead and buried – despite, you know, the “science” and scientists still demanding them – the government would start declaring victory and moving on.

They’re not quite there yet, with their silly 90% vaccination target still out there, but they’re talking it down as well, and doing things like this.

There are 51 new community cases today, including four in Waikato, the Ministry of Health says.

There was no media conference today.

Well of course there wasn’t. There are various simple little tricks any government can pull when it wants people to stop talking about things, or not start in the first place. Friday afternoon document dumps of bad news and embarrassing admissions have long been a favourite.

But simply not having a media conference is another. They know that without a human face, especially Jacinda’s smiling one, TV is not going to cover it; there’s literally nothing to look at. They’ll cover some news that does have a human face. Even radio will give way without a human voice.

So you can just make a press release announcing the dry, boring numbers and TV/Radio will report that but quickly move on. We’ve already noticed that, as the bad news of rising cases began to turn up, Jacinda and her team were quick to pull her from the daily Podium Of Truth, leaving it to her minions to deliver the news.

Normally I’d say that they’d also be left to take the heat, but this is the NZ MSM we’re talking about here. They’re simply not smart enough to ask good questions, especially ones that might start counter-arguments to the narrative that they and the Labour/Green party supports.

Now, even those faces have been removed as the whole thing begins the process of being downgraded to the same level as roadbuilding budget announcements.

At some point soon I suspect that Adern and company will not even bother talking about the vaccination rate, and if questions about either it or case numbers are mentioned, they’ll just waffle around them.

No, even though they can’t quite bring themselves to do it yet, they’re probably soon going to start talking about a different number; the number of the day and month on which New Zealand will open up, both internally and to the world. A “Freedom Date” as the British called it.

To do otherwise would be to take numbers that have been useful to the government so far – case numbers and vax rates – and watch them be steadily turned against the government, as they already are.

In any case there are new battles to fight, even on this disease, and on better ground, as we see in the USA.

Written by Tom Hunter

October 17, 2021 at 2:54 pm