No Minister

Posts Tagged ‘Global Warming (AGW)

Two crises, same response.

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It’s often said that a photo is worth a thousand words, but there are few photos that convey the same message about two different and vast crises afflicting humanity.

That’s Barack Obama, photographed talking with a bunch of construction workers about the work on his new multi-million dollar beachfront house in Hawaii. To be fair he’s probably fairly confident about the oceans not overflowing his mansion because of his ascension to the Whitehouse way back in 2008 – which is why he also owns another mansion at Martha’s Vineyard, about 1m above sea level in Massachusetts.

This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.

The other thing about that photo is that Obama does not have a mask on while all the lowly construction workers and others do. He’s not alone in that.

Obama knows that the oceans won’t rise in any significant way over the next decades or even centuries, just as he knows he’s not at serious risk of dying from COVID.

But it’s very important that the little people be frightened enough of these and other things so that they can be more easily controlled, for their own good of course.

Not Seen on the ABC

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Look out! Global coldening is on the way.

Signs of Winter

Sky News host Rowan Dean says record cold snaps and rainfall globally are making the continued “global warming predictions” and alarmism “laughable or criminal”.

“I drove home last night from the studio through an absolute deluge; trees down, roads flooded, swollen rivers, and a thousand waterfalls along the motorway,” he said.

“Naturally, I only had one thought that kept replaying over and over in my mind. That was of course one of the key climate change predictions from Tim Flannery from the beginning of this century, and just one of the many, many predictions that was so wrong it is either laughable or criminal.

“Indeed, it was also predicted that by 2020, children in Europe and Australia wouldn’t know what snow was anymore. This prediction was repeated as recently as 2014 by the New York Times who postulated ‘the end of snow?’.”

The northern hemisphere winter this year was one of the “coldest in decades”, with experts in Finland suggesting record snowfall will likely not even melt through summer.

“Who can forget over in America, it was so cold the windmills froze, plunging the state into blackouts with people tragically dying simply trying to stay warm? More cold weather is due again this week in Texas,” Mr Dean said.

“Yet this morning in Melbourne’s CBD, the climate crazies were out in force again with Extinction Rebellion protesters causing peak-hour chaos, blocking the intersection of Flinders and Swanston streets with a moving truck.

“That would be, of course, a large fossil-fuel-powered truck emitting an abundance of carbon emissions, but what’s a little hypocrisy when you’re saving the planet from imminent Armageddon?”

Mr Dean pointed to the high level of emissions from China, noting it has “over 3,000 coal-fires power plants built or being planned”.

“Instead, our leaders are hellbent on paying lip service to an unproven scientific hypothesis that CO2 is heating the globe to levels that threaten mankind – and even the planet’s – existence when the evidence of our eyes and the tips of our fingers and noses is often completely the opposite.

“As far as I can tell, major economic decisions across the planet are predicated on a theory from two decades ago – if not longer – that doesn’t stack up, for the obvious reasons that so many predicted outcomes have not occurred.”

Written by adolffinkensen

January 2, 2022 at 10:44 pm

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Is COP-26 over yet?

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I ask because, aside from all the billionaires who flew into the Glasgow soiree in their private jets, I understand that New Zealand had a contingent over at the blowhardfest as well and that they will soon be returning.

On Sunday, MailOnline observed at least 52 private jets landing at Glasgow – while estimates put the total number flying in for the conference at 400. Conservative predictions suggest the fleet of private jets arriving for COP26 will blast out 13,000tonnes of carbon dioxide in total – equivalent to the amount consumed by more than 1,600 Britons in a year. 

I assume that they will not be getting the “greeting” that Democrat Senator Manchin got the other day as Climate Activists attempt to convince him to vote for Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) bill, which contains all sorts of juicy subsidies and the like for renewable energy. He and Arizona Senator Sinema have already done a great job in hacking it down from $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, but it’s still stuffed with “pork”.

The term was further popularized by a 1919 article by Chester Collins Maxey in the National Municipal Review, which reported on certain legislative acts known to members of Congress as “pork barrel bills”. He claimed that the phrase originated in a pre-Civil War practice of giving slaves a barrel of salt pork as a reward and requiring them to compete among themselves to get their share of the handout.

That sounds about right.

The joke is that those protestors are already living a great life. Mostly white, mostly middle and upper-class climate activists don’t have to worry about the cost of electricity as Manchin’s considerably poorer West Virginian voters do, to the extent that it becomes a question of paying the food bill or the power bill.

This comment is a precise summation of this Glasgow farce:

“The COP has turned into a PR event, where leaders are giving beautiful speeches and announcing fancy commitments and targets, while behind the curtains governments of the Global North countries are still refusing to take any drastic climate action.”

That’s “You robbed my future” teenage fanatic Greta Thunderhead who, despite her autism, appears to be finally learning the grim human realities that politicians are facing, which is the yawning gap between the voting public’s supposed desire to “do something” about AGW and the cost of doing so via government imposed rules, regulations, taxes and “markets”.

The thing is that while Greta can be excused for not learning this until now because she’s a child – a remarkably pampered child – there’s no excuse for the millions of idiots who’ve followed this path since the original Kyoto Treaty.

BTW, “doing something” with these people always and only means that government is doing something: anything outside of that is not counted as doing something, despite things like this.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 8, 2021 at 11:18 am

No MSM news is good news

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I don’t know why people continue to be surprised by the following revelations but they are:

I&I/TIPP Poll: Trust In Media Is In Free Fall

According to a recent survey conducted by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford, among 92,000 news consumers in 46 countries, the United States ranked last in terms of media trust at 29%.  Finland received the highest level of trust in the study, at 65%. The United States performed worse than Poland, the Philippines, and Peru.

Regrettably New Zealand is not in that survey, but I would think that we have worse results than Australia because they do at least have some rightish MSM, as this recent SKY News coverage of Biden shows.

One interesting aspect of this latest survey is that they looked at both the “traditional” and “alternative” MSM. Here are the US results:

Generally speaking, how much trust do you have in the traditional or established news media (Example: Washington Post, New York Times, NPR, CBS News, etc.) to report the news accurately and fairly?

 Generally speaking, how much trust do you have in the alternative news media (Example: New York Post, Washington Times, NewsMax, The Daily Caller, RealClearPolitics, etc.) to report the news accurately and fairly?

There’s a lot more detail at both the first link, and it’s sub-links, but I fear they are in lala land when it comes to their optimism about the media regaining all this lost trust. That could be done but only if there was a dramatic transformation in the way modern reporters approach a story, which is that a Narrative must first be crafted for the article, just like a storybook, after which facts and edited interviews and quotes from “experts” and whatever else is needed to support that storybook are included – and anything that does not or conflicts with the story is excluded. “Editorial choice” also covers a wide range of sins.

There are some who just cannot stomach it anymore, like Ole Skambraks, who worked as an editorial assistant and editor at the German public broadcaster ARD for 12 years. His particular issue is around the coverage of the Covid-19 pandemic in the last two years, but what he says could apply to any story covered in the last twenty or thirty years:

Scientists and experts who were respected and esteemed before Covid, who were given space in public discourse, are suddenly labelled cranks, tinfoil hat wearers or Covidiots. As an oft-cited example, consider Wolfgang Wodarg, a medical specialist in several fields, an epidemiologist and a long-time health politician. Until the Covid crisis, he was also on the board of Transparency International. In 2010, as Chair of the Council of Europe Health Committee, he exposed the influence of the pharmaceutical industry in the swine flu pandemic. At that time, he was granted the opportunity to express his opinion on public service broadcasting, but in times of Covid this is no longer possible. His voice has been replaced by that of so-called fact-checkers, who seek to discredit him.

Instead of an open exchange of opinions, a “scientific consensus” was proclaimed, that must be defended. Anyone who doubts this and demands a multidimensional perspective on the pandemic, will reap indignation and scorn.

In this context, it is less revealing which topics are being discussed in public service media, than what is not being discussed.

TPTB and their many lackeys are of course perfectly happy with this. But read his whole article, which is basically a list of questions that should have been asked if the MSM was actually useful.

You should also read this latest article in The Tablet, Why Don’t They Believe Us? which covers much of the same material I have here on No Minister. Even Kiwiblog has a post on it, which I guess means the “Moderate Right” has detected a change in the winds – or perhaps a stench.

The same people who told you Brexit would never happen, that Trump would never win, that when he did win it was because of Russian collusion but also because of racism, that you must follow lockdowns while they don’t, that masks don’t work, that masks do work, that social justice protests during pandemic lockdowns are a form of “health intervention,” that ransacking African American communities in the name of fighting racism is a “mostly peaceful” form of protest, that poor and underserved children locked out of shuttered schools are “still learning,” that Jussie Smollett was a victim of a hate crime, that men are toxic, that there is an infinite number of genders, that COVID couldn’t have come from a lab until maybe it did, that closing borders is racist until maybe it isn’t, that you shouldn’t take Trump’s vaccine, that you must take the vaccine developed during the Trump administration, that Andrew Cuomo is a great leader, that Andrew Cuomo is a granny killer, that the number of COVID deaths is one thing and then another … are the same people telling you now that the vaccine is safe, that you must take it, and that if you don’t, you will be a second-class citizen.

Fuck these people. Let them burn. In fact fuck the idiots who read and watched this and believed all of it, some of them even now.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 3, 2021 at 2:38 pm

A tired old man

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“I’ am a tired man”, US President Abraham Lincoln once confessed to a friend, “Sometimes I think I’m the tiredest man on earth”.

But he said that in 1865 and had every reason to feel that way after four years of leading the nation through the most brutal war in its history and then facing the prospect of trying to pull it together again when the bitter conflict ended and 600,000 bodies lay in the ground.

By contrast the only reason the current POTUS is tired is that he’s an old man placed in a job he is simply not capable of performing, and never was.

Painful to watch. Xi Jinping, Putin and a host of others are watching this and know they have three more years to make their moves.

Having said that I couldn’t blame Biden for the following; I’d have fallen asleep as well listening to all these hypocrites droning on about a Climate Catastrophe their many actions demonstrate they don’t believe in:

“Appears”? No, this is not like the meeting with Boris Johnson a couple of months ago where the “Fact Checkers” of the MSM made excuses about how Biden had just briefly closed his eyes while Johnson spoke. No, in this case Biden most definitely fell asleep for almost a minute before some aide comes to wake him up before the nanna-nap becomes too deep.

The MSM will cover for him as best they can, as they have done for two years now, but if you want a more precise example of the double standards just recall this response to a Trump official’s comment all the way back in 2017:

“When you are trying to convince America that its new leader is not a fascist,” New York Magazine’s Margaret Hartmann and Chas Danner suggested recently, “it’s best not to make any Mussolini references.”

Too late. That advice was directed at former Cincinnati mayor Ken Blackwell, a member of the Trump transition team. Blackwell just assured the Wall Street Journal that Reince Preibus, the RNC chair picked as White House chief of staff, would “utilize his personal connections with the speaker [Rep. Paul Ryan] and others, to make the trains run on time.”

Message received! It’s not a good look for the Trump Administration to make references to Mussolini. You know what might be worse? Doing it in the country Mussolini called home:

I doubt we’ll see any pearl clutching from the likes of New York magazine’s Margaret Hartman and Chas Danner about this Biden line.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 3, 2021 at 8:21 am

The Global Warmists didn’t think this through

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Apparently some activist group on Twitter, called “DCist” recently started running Global Warming Catastrophe stories to support the great COP26 conference in Scotland.

That’s the conference that has seen hundreds of political and bureaucratic worthies spewing thousands of tons of CO2 into Mother Earth’s atmosphere by flying from all over the world to a place where they can discuss how they can stop spewing meagatonnes of CO2 into Mother Earth’s atmosphere.

Here’s one example.

I said many years ago in these debates that people telling me with horror that “The great cities of the world like New York, Washington D.C, San Francisco and LA, will be flooded”, was not only not going to get me onboard the AGW-action train but produce the opposite reaction: “You mean I get to burn fossil fuels AND destroy Leftist enclaves? SIGN ME UP”.

And so…

This thread is even better for responses.

Meanwhile in actual news of the ocean, Despite Climate Change Fearmongering, Study Shows The Great Barrier Reef Is Growing Quickly:

The Australian government’s most recent official report on reef recovery indicates that coral cover at the Northern Great Barrier Reef “continued to increase to 27% from the most recent low point in 2017.” Meanwhile, the Central Great Barrier Reef saw a 26% increase in hard coral cover.

Indeed, the study stated that over thirty-five years of monitoring, the Great Barrier Reef has consistently “shown an ability to recover after disturbances.”

Naturally this is not being covered by the MSM, unlike recent years when, as the article records, the likes of the NYT and WaPo screamed their guts out about the dying Great Barrier Reef.

We have now had thirty years of this sort of doom nonsense and reality never matches it, which is the real reason – not the awful “Climate Change Deniers” – why so little is achieved at and arising from conferences like COP26.

Written by Tom Hunter

October 30, 2021 at 9:19 am

It’s That Damned Global Warming Again!

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A polar blast is heading across NSW and Victoria. Picture: BOM/Sky
 News Weather

Inland temperatures have been 10C to 12C colder than average on Thursday morning, while coastal parts of the state have shivered through a morning 5C to 7C below average.

Written by adolffinkensen

June 10, 2021 at 11:48 am

Quick! Let’s Have Another Carbon Tax.

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Adolf laughed his arse off when he read this morning’s Australian.

Australia’s southeast shivers through ‘widespread polar’ cold snap

It will be chilly for the rest of the week. Picture: Sky News Weather
It will be chilly for the rest of the week. Picture: Sky News Weather

The cold snap sweeping across nation’s eastern states is set to hang around until at least the end of the week.

Queensland, NSW, the ACT, Victoria and Tasmania have all shivered through freezing nights and frosty mornings, with temperatures falling to below zero in all states.

Snow has also fallen in Tasmania and alpine Victoria, with more snow on the way for the Apple Isle in coming days.

The temperature is set to drop to as low as 7C in Melbourne on Friday morning, while Sydney is set to shiver through 9C on Thursday.

Canberra will fall to -3C on Wednesday and 0C on Thursday with morning frost and fog, and the temperature in Hobart will get down to 4C on Friday.

Inland Australia has seen widespread frosty mornings over the past few days.
Inland Australia has seen widespread frosty mornings over the past few days.

Frost has been forecasted again across inland NSW, southern Queensland and parts of South Australia on Wednesday before it eases back to just a few patches on Thursday.

Snow will also fall to 1300m in central Tasmania on Thursday.

Sky News chief meteorologist Tom Saunders said the cold spell developed late last week as a series of four cold fronts swept across southeast Australia within four days.

“Behind the fronts modified polar air has now settled over southeast Australia and combined with calm, clear nights is leading to widespread frost,” he said.

It was very chilly across eastern parts of Victoria on Tuesday night, with frost areas in the northeast. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology
It was very chilly across eastern parts of Victoria on Tuesday night, with frost areas in the northeast. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

“It’s not unusual to have late autumn cold spells but this event has seen temperatures drop to levels only seen every couple of years outside of the winter season.”

The cold snap hasn’t broken any records – yet – but a number of towns have shivered through their coldest May morning in a few years.

Canberra’s minimum of -5.4C on Sunday was their coldest in six years for May, while Mitchell in Queensland had a low of -2.9C on Monday morning, its coldest temperature for May in 15 years.

On Tuesday morning, Sydney dropped to 8.7C, while Canberra shivered through -3.6C, Orange -3.5C, Launceston -1.4C, Bendigo 3.8C and Roma -1.2C.

Written by adolffinkensen

May 19, 2021 at 1:25 pm

Bad News for People Who Like Bad News (UPDATE)

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The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report is out and it seems that the worst AGW Denier nation in the world has been doing pretty well in reducing Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions:

The United States saw the largest decline in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019 on a country basis – a fall of 140 Mt, or 2.9%, to 4.8 Gt. US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period.

For those who have been watching the steady replacement of coal-fired power stations in the USA with gas-fired ones over the last fifteen years, this comes as no surprise:

A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019. Coal-fired power plants faced even stronger competition from natural gas-fired generation, with benchmark gas prices an average of 45% lower than 2018 levels. As a result, gas increased its share in electricity generation to a record high of 37%. 

Again, the latest drop in natural gas prices is simply the continuation of a trend that has been going on since the mid 2000’s:

US Natural Gas Daily Prices: $US per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

And that trend in greatly reduced prices has been due to the massive increase in the amount of natural gas being recovered and more importantly the even vaster amounts available to be recovered – all due to fracking technology finally reaching technological “critical mass” in the early-2000’s in the USA.

Thanks fracking!

To be fair, all the advanced economies have been doing pretty well on the GHG reduction front. Unfortunately the reductions in 2018/19 by the Developed World – what the IEA calls “Advanced Economies” – were more than matched by the emissions increases of the Developing World, so people who love bad news still have that.

The Japanese example is interesting:

Japan saw energy-related CO2 emissions fall 4.3% to 1 030 Mt in 2019, the fastest pace of decline since 2009. The power sector experienced the largest drop in emissions as reactors that had recently returned to operation contributed to a 40% increase in nuclear power output. This allowed Japan to reduce electricity generation from coal-, gas- and oil-fired power plants.

After the initial post-Fukushima panic the Japanese realised they simply do not have a choice but to switch the reactors back on.

Meanwhile the rest of the world just keeps cranking along on GHG emissions.

Emissions outside advanced economies grew by close to 400 Mt in 2019, with almost 80% of the increase coming from Asia. In this region, coal demand continued to expand, accounting for over 50% of energy use, and is responsible for around 10 Gt of emissions.

UPDATE:
Thanks to our wonderful readers some new information and a debating point has emerged in the thread:

“EAsy for the US to do when it excludes from measurement one of its biggest polluters – its military.”

As I pointed out, that talking point is from the fights over the Paris Climate Accord, following on from military emissions being excluded from the earlier Kyoto Treaty. The IEA’s stats are not affected by that argument as they simply gather up energy prodution/consumption data from multiple sources, both private and public.

Evidence? And IF you are correct then the US reduction will be all down to fewer US warlike acts.

While I cannot speak to the details of the IEA’s work itself, the data on fuel usage by the US military is part of the public record, since the US government has to pay for it in its annual budget. And aside from that there are reports from the Pentagon, such as this one from: Fiscal Year 2015 Operational Energy Annual Report. And remember that these records don’t care where in the world that stuff is burned so the arguments about foreign bases are irrelevant, and of course any CO2 emitted by the nation supporting a US base will be captured by its own national data.
Anyway, looking at that report it seems that the US military consumed some 88 million barrels of fuel in 2015, which translates into 3.7 Billion US gallons. Standard conversion is 9.57 kilograms of CO2 per gallon so roughly 35.4 Million tonnes. Since the ships, tanks, planes and so forth are all kept moving in peacetime or wartime a war – with more sorties per plane, more travel by Army vehicles and so forth – would make little difference to that total fuel consumption figure. The only real impact would be a reduction in the total numbers of machines, and that’s exactly what has happened to all the US military services since the end of the Cold War, with many decommissioned units in the Air Force, Navy, Army and Marines. You could add on GHG emissions from all the buildings they own, plus other supplemental support objects, which is where I assume the Statista number of 59Mt came from in 2017.
And of course it should be noted that even 59Mt of CO2 emissions amounts to 1.09% of the US’s 5.4 billion tonnes of GHG emissions (2018). So war or not, the US military does not amount to much in the US scheme of GHG emission reductions.

Written by Tom Hunter

February 16, 2020 at 7:21 pm

A billion dollar slush fund won’t save Winston First

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The news is rapidly spreading through the farming community that the recently passed Zero Carbon Act had some funny things going on behind the scenes with the negotiations between Labour, Greens, National and NZ First.

And it all focused around methane.

Methane is the main greenhouse gas emission from agriculture, and makes up roughly half of New Zealand’s GHG emissions, mainly from livestock belching – not farting as the jokes have it. The Paris Accord which NZ signed up to, does have a methane component to it, but it’s a small factor compared to CO2 and even around that small factor the uncertainties of its potential GHG impact are significant:

The results suggest that revised methane emissions estimates will only have a very modest effect on carbon budgets. The revised emissions lead to a decrease in the allowable carbon budget by around 1 to 2% over the next 20 years, Forster and Smith say.

And that’s assessing the world-wide production of methane, which itself is tough to estimate. It’s a non-starter GHG on a global scale even before one looks at our portion of it.

We’re here to destroy your planet

Everybody else focuses on CO2 resulting from industrial production, while New Zealand is the only nation that’s focusing attention on agricultural methane.

Pity really as our traditional non-industrial base, 70% renewable electricity, and other lucky factors that we’ve inherited would otherwise see us looking pretty good on the CO2 emissions front.

But because New Zealand loves trying to be a World Leader on global issues and because we love looking virtuous in front of the rest of the world – an enduring legacy of our Cultural Cringe – we’ve decided to go after methane as the “Nuclear Free moment of our generation” – and other such shite.

Daisy’s new home – a Herd Home

The target is a 10 per cent reduction on 2017 levels by 2030 and between 24 and 47 per cent reduction by 2050 and this has been vehemently opposed by farmers.

This is of course labelled as wooden-headed opposition to Climate Change theory.

But farmers have good reason to oppose the targets, even aside from the objection to being sacrificed to no purpose.

Apart from anything else, the primary way it might be tackled – genetic engineering of grass and animals – is a non-starter with the Greens, the very party demanding action on reducing GHG’s. This is fighting with one hand tied behind your back.

Instead there’s talk of planting different grasses, methane digestors using the solids dumped on concrete feedpads or herd homes, or crude approaches like simply reducing the size of dairy herds. How “sustainable” any of these would be in terms of income vs. cost for farmers is little debated.

My view is that it will simply do what Big Government always does – aid Big Business.

Most of these approaches will squeeze out small farms (meaning anything less than 250 cows), which will be bought up by corporate farms, large trusts and partnerships – or Landcorp.

Clean and Green Farming

Farms of 1000 plus cows using the “cut-and-carry” model; cutting and carrying stock food to cows housed in sheds 365 days of the year, combined with wage and salary workers to operate it all like a factory. Such units can easily carry the capital investment of herd homes costing $300k to house 250 cows or any of the other Capex involved. And remember that all this sunk cost will contribute not one bit to increase income or reduce costs, aside from avoiding the artificial cost of an artificial tax. For large units that’s a shrug of the shoulders: for small farms it’s death.

Dirty Farming

So much for our traditional image of cows grazing on green paddocks of family-owned farms, or  sharemilkers and contract milkers making their way up the ladder. That model is dead, and it turns out that the image compared to the US/Northern Euro factory barn approach is worth nothing in terms of branding or marketing. Apparently the Northern Hemisphere model is the one that’s cleaner and greener – at least when it comes to GHG’s.

The political factor has always been easy to see. Labour and the Greens have an easier ride of it because they only have to worry about their urban voters: for all the talk of EV’s and the like, Labour in particular is never going to impose the costs of eliminating fossil fuels in the only way that works, which is straight-out elimination via regulations and/or massive increases in the prices of petrol, natural gas, and so forth. For all the city talk of being concerned about Climate Change, there’s only so much cost those voters will wear. Even though it’s a Climate Crisis.

By contrast, farmers are rich pricks who can easily carry almost any cost, are vastly fewer in number, traditionally vote National, and easily demonised. They’re the perfect target because it doesn’t cost Labour-Greens anything.

That’s the real reason for the focus on methane.

And all it required was the weaponising of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which the Clarke government put in place in 2008 as it was going out the door, and which National left alone as it played both sides of the issue.

Having said that, these sorts of concerns did lead the National Party to push for the methane reduction target to be removed from the Zero Carbon Bill, which it eventually voted to support anyway. That’s not much of a surprise as they continue to try and split the difference between their rural and urban voters.

But what is a surprise is that none other than the Climate Change Minister himself – Green Party co-leader James Shaw – considered doing exactly that, instead allowing it to be set by a commission.

But here’s the kicker – NZ First would not support such a move.

I was a bit surprised by this news at first but then I realised what was going on.

Winston was sticking it to the National Party.

So filled with hatred for them is he, that he would not allow them anything that looked like a win. Had National not been part of these conversations Winston may well have stuffed the methane targets, since that would have given him a very solid talking point as he trawls for provincial votes with the globulous fraud, Shane Jones.

But not now. Winston just burned off any farming votes he might have expected, and given the dependency of provincial towns and cities on farmer’s economic success, he may well have burned off other provincial votes as well.