No Minister

Posts Tagged ‘Japan

On The Doctrine of Immutable Doctrines

In a recent post Dr Wayne Mapp, one time Defense Minister for a tin pot Antipodean country whose military not long ago was scared shitless by Fiji, cited the doctrine of ‘mutually assured destruction’ as the prime reason Japan’s current Deputy Defense Minister was wrong to warn of a surprise Chinese nuclear attack on Hawaii.

Before dissecting his doctrine, let’s look at the background of the gentleman Dr Mapp tells us is wrong.

Yasuhide Nakayama is responsible for a military organization having 240,000 active personnel and an annual budget of US$50 billion. Let that sink in, dear reader. The total GDP of the aforementioned tin pot Antipodean outfit is US$193 billion of which less than one percent now is spent on defense. (Thanks to clueless Labour.) Further, it is worth remembering Mr Nakayama’s country has considerable first hand experience with both surprise attacks on Hawaii and nuclear attack.

Now for the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. This was the lynch pin of western defense strategy during the cold war and is credited with preventing hostilities between the Soviet Union and the United States over some forty years.

However, one must wonder how effective it might be in preventing major conflict between China/Russia and the USA/japan/India/Australia/Philippines in today’s climate.

Times change and doctrines which were thought immutable turn out to be illusory. Consider the much vaunted Maginot Line, Impregnable Singapore and poor old Admiral Phillips’ doctrine of battleships’ immunity from dive bombers.

The immutable doctrine on which Dr Mapp relies is flawed – indeed, fatally flawed.

First, it relies on both parties being competent and capable of reacting within just twenty minutes when attacked. In my view, one would struggle to have even 20% confidence the US has such capability. Their cadaverous president, clearly propelled fraudulently into office, can’t remember where he put the keys to the nuclear codes.

Second, it relies on both parties being unwilling to sacrifice large numbers of their own citizens to gain some perceived goal. Last week Xi wore in public the uniform of his hero Mao Tse Tung who killed over ninety thousand Chinese in his Great Long March. I believe Xi would not hesitate to make a similar sacrifice If he thought it would bring him significant advantage.

As each day goes by, China’s aggressive behaviour accelerates.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is china-nuke-japan-860x475.jpg

“When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force, even it if only deploys one soldier, one plane and one ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire but also start a full-scale war against Japan,” the video says.

“We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time,” referring to the end of World War II and Japan’s surrender after the United States used atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Today’s message to Japan was the coup de grace for those relying on an old and obsolete doctrine.

Written by adolffinkensen

July 17, 2021 at 4:16 pm

Posted in China, New Zealand

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This One’s For Andrei – Some Musings From An Inexperienced Onlooker

Adolf saw an interesting opinion piece the other day, on the possibility of a rapprochement between the USA and Russia. 

Later in another piece, there were a couple of phrases which, as I like to say, fell out and clattered onto the floor.

“……The Geneva Agreement had all the underpinnings of the Munich Agreement. The comparison is apt. Just as Munich gave Hitler more time to build up his Panzers, the Geneva Agreement gave the mullahs ten years to build the bomb.

Just as in 1930s the world failed to stop Hitler, while the viper was still in its crib, and tolerated Germany’s violations of the Treaties of Versailles to allow her to rearm, the world de facto allowed Iran to ignore United Nations Security Council resolutions and continue the development of a nuclear weapon. Just as Britain sold Czechoslovakia out in 1938 to appease Hitler, the United States sold Israel out in 2013 to appease Iran……..”

and

Western democracies that failed to prevent two world wars suffer historical amnesia and appear to be unconcerned with the replay of Munich. Feeling safe under the American military umbrella, the leaders of the UK, France, and Germany have been imploring Trump to salvage the accord with Iran. Just as in the 1930s, the slippery slope of greed and appeasement is driving Europe toward more disasters. Paraphrasing Lenin, they are vying with each other for the rope contract.”


For some time now I’ve wondered about these and other similarities between geo-politics of the late 1930s and those of the present day.   Some of the similarities are, I think, remarkable.

The two Asian super-powers of their respective times, Imperial Japan and Communist China both were remarkably short of strategic resources.  Things like coal, oil and iron ore back then and now.  China uses it’s economic strength to buy what it needs while Japan used it’s military strength to steal what it needed.

Japan made plenty of noise about its military strength and was able to conquer many smaller and weaker nations and later eject the naive and foolish British from Singapore. However, when push came to shove Japan was defeated by the might of the US economy.  Yamamoto predicted as much straight after the pearl Harbour raid.

I suggest that is where China sits currently.

Today, China makes makes a prick of itself in the South China Sea while Japan, South Korea,The Philipines and others try to look the other way, as if to say “Well we can’t do much about it, so why worry?”

I suggest once Iran has been settled down by Israel, the US and their friends, the next venue for competition will be Asia with China as the centerpiece.   One sees little commentary on the relationship, if any, between China and Russia but with such a long mutual border there is potential for mischief from either side of it.  (Would China invade Russia?  Possibly.  There’s a  hell of a lot of oil and agricultural potential to be had.)

At one stage I wondered if we might wake up one morning to find Putin and Xi had done a Molotov/Ribbentrop deal.  But then, if you take that analogy a step further, you would not be surprised to see shortly thereafter, Russia, The US and Western Europe in an alliance, albeit tense, taking on Red China.

For me, the enigma in the whole shebang is trying to work out ‘What is China’s game?   What is it really after?

(‘Some Musings’ is what happens when you come out of hospital and have a day for the anesthetic to wear off.)



Written by adolffinkensen

May 17, 2018 at 8:23 am

Posted in China, Europe, USA

Tagged with , ,