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Posts Tagged ‘Polls

TWAS AN INTERESTING DAY IN POLITICS YESTERDAY

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with the release of the Roy Morgan poll confirming the trend of previous polls. No great comment needed except to observe that the Greens too appear to be benefiting from the drop in Labour’s fortunes (although I suspect their support is rubbery) while the Maori Party have lost their kingmaker status suggested in previous polls and thank God for that. Interesting too that the number of those polled who saw the country as headed in the wrong direction has increased to 50% compared with the reduction in support to 40% for those who think things are just peachy. Lotsa water to flow under the bridge but right now in the election cycle the old adage of government’s losing elections rather than oppositions winning them appears to be in play reinforced in part by the observation of Richard Prebble that the perception of Labour is of a tired third term government even though they are just over half way through their second term.

Guyon Espiner had an interesting profile of Chris Luxon. Guyon and I go back some way when he was my ‘go to’ person n the media when Judith Collins and I and the late John Masters were working together to bust open the canard that Kiwi Vietnam veterans were not exposed to Agent Orange. Guyon isn’t in the mold of Jessica or Tova. He doesn’t do sycophancy and the article reflects that.

We now know why NZ First ain’t standing a candidate in Tauranga with the trial of two persons charged with electoral fraud starting yesterday in the High Court. Peters knew the date and hence the decision. The trial would have been the death knell to any NZ First candidate. The names of the two accused remain suppressed (although I can’t for the life me understand why) but one thing for sure … it is utter sophistry for NZ First (Peters) to claim that neither of the two defendants are current members of NZ First. Note the word ‘current’. I suspect that when name suppression is lifted at least one of the defendants will be revealed as very, very close to WRP … follow the money.

And finally St Jacinda doing a Pontius Pilate and refusing to take any responsibility for the escalation in gang associated shootings now happening on a daily basis leaving the hapless Poto Williams doing her ‘possum caught in the headlights’ impression as she was left to argue that the government is engaged in urgent discussions with the Police as to how respond to the situation with nothing off the table … but no specifics as yet. One might argue at Galatians 6:7 being in play here.

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Written by The Veteran

June 8, 2022 at 1:00 pm

Unexpectedly

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The primary vote for Australian Labor Party has dropped by four points (down from 38%), according to the latest opinion poll, published this morning.

Prime minister Lazarus Scott Morrison now leads Albanese as preferred PM.

The poor bastards in the media who have spent months denigrating Morrison must be distraught. All that hard work fucked up by an arse called Albo.

Written by adolffinkensen

April 18, 2022 at 12:49 pm

Posted in Australia

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The Chartists Strike

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In the world of statistics and numbers, Charles Minard’s chart of Napoleon’s attack on Russia and his disastrous retreat, is probably the most famous chart ever made, with just one of the accolades being that it:

defies the pen of the historian in its brutal eloquence”.

The reason it is a work of genius is that, in one clear, compelling picture it captures in two dimensions six vital pieces of information about the campaign, as explained here:

  • The number of Napoleon’s troops;
  • distance;
  • temperature;
  • the latitude and longitude;
  • direction of travel;
  • location relative to specific dates.

Minard was a civil engineer and official Inspector General of Bridges and Roads and he drew up the chart in 1869 in his retirement.

Well, somebody in the USA has decided to repeat this charting exercise against the woebegone Administration of “President” Biden.

Written by Tom Hunter

March 12, 2022 at 3:00 pm

ON POLLS

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Polls are funny animals. They are but a snapshot in time and you can’t/shouldn’t get overly excited about them other than to look for trends. In this post I will be commenting on the clear trend that has emerged in the last two polls (Roy Morgan and last nights TV One poll) in relation to the five parties represented in our Parliament.

Labour …. Its clear that the halcyon days post the election are well are truly over and while Ardern still commands substantial support among the female demographic its equally clear the tide has turned against Labour. They reaped kudos for the way they initially dealt with Covid acknowledging that they had no songbook to sing from. Decisions were having to be made on the hoof and the electorate cut them a deal of slack in that regard. But having survived the first wave they took their eye off the ball and in the last little they have over-promised and under-delivered on Covid (and any number of other initiatives). In short, the electorate has seen through the talk and little walk that has characterised the Ardern administration.

A stunning example of this (and it perhaps reflected in the TV1 Poll) was Ardern’s refusal to accept there was a cost of living crisis which was the focus of Luxon’s speech. This from a politician who is want to declare a crisis at the drop of a hat (climate change/child poverty etc). Everyone knows the inflation Genie is out of the bottle caused, in part, by quantitative easing coupled with low quality government spending and all Ardern could point to was the intention to raise benefits by 7% on 1 April. Well, colour me stupid and yes, genuine beneficiaries need to be compensated for COL increases but those on benefits are hardly the productive sector with many businesses struggling to make a buck and the LCI for all salary and wage rates (including overtime) increasing by just 2.6% in 2021 against inflation at 5.9%. And the March 2022 quarter will see another substantial rise in inflation which is now predicted to hit 7.4% in the June quarter (and I think that’s on the low side with the cost of Russia’s war yet to be fully priced in and news today that food prices in February were up 6.8% compared with February 2021).

Both Covid and inflation are Labour’s problem. The electorate is increasingly sick (no pun intended) of one and concerned about the other. The chickens are coming home to roost.

National … will take heart from the result. They’re clearly back in the game under Luxon. I’m aware there may be some residual discontent in caucus about his leadership style coming as he does (as did Key) from the corporate sector. Some low energy MPs will feel threatened (and so they should be). But nothing can detract from the rise National has enjoyed in the polls. Clearly Luxon is determined to take the fight to Labour on the ground of his own choosing (old military maxim) … the economy. Expect law and order and separatism to feature too in the coming months. Covid not much, best left to Labour who control all the levers.

Greens … the Greens too will be buoyed by the result. Their vote is holding up and they are attracting left leaning Labour supporters who see Ardern et al as failing to meet expectations. Their prize in a Labour/Greens/Te Pati Maori administration … Deputy Prime Minister and seats around the cabinet table able to push their agenda forcefully working with Te Pati Maori.

ACT … has taken a hit but you can fairly argue it is an artificial hit. The 18% they registered last year was more a reflection of the then state of National. I expect the ACT Party vote to stabalise in the 8-10% range. They will be an important voice in the direction of any new National/ACT administration. One other matter (and I tread carefully). I’m aware there is a certain level of discontent among some previously high profile ACT members (the NK’s and Rodney Hide’s of this world) with the leadership of David Seymour. Get over it guys …. understand the 80/20 rule that exists in politics. You can’t be 100% ‘pure’ 100% of the time.

Te Pati Maori … labelled in the poll as ‘Kingi’ makers. Incorrect. Te Pati Maori of today ain’t the Maori Party of Dame Tariana Turia or Te Ururoa Flavell of yesteryear. National will have no truck with them representing, as they do, radical Maori dedicated to separatism in all its forms. So all they can do is to go with Labour and the Greens or sit on the cross-benches and really the second option is no option. In order to get there they will have to win again the Waiariki seat which they hold by less than 1.000 votes. I expect Labour to campaign hard in order to win it back for all sorts of reasons. Problem for Labour is that List MP Tamati Coffey who lost the seat in 2020 is widely seen as a dilettante (among other things). Will Labour have the balls to run with a serious candidate?

Here endith the gospel according to The Veteran.

Written by The Veteran

March 11, 2022 at 3:26 pm

Posted in NZ Politics

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It takes a crisis…

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… to finally put a stop to another crisis.

In this case the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like it will be the final push needed to shove the Great Chinese Lung Rot Pandemic into history after more than two years of hysteria.

That and shitty polls (USA, more on that in a bit) – or banking problems (Canada), that caused Trudeau to dump the emergency powers about twenty four hours after Parliament granted them, clearly seeing a run on the banks as people feared they might be next to have accounts frozen for crossing him.

Like a lot of other things about the Pandemic, the damage to Canadian banks could be long-term; after all, why would you now risk having a Canadian bank account unless you have no choice?

Over in perhaps the worst European nation, Austria, the politicians went from a dark night of pushing through laws demanding 100% vaccine mandates, plus fines, in mid-February – to dumping them by March 5th. Even in NZ some cracks started to appear, as with this article about Ardern from a former fangirl, From saint to sinner:

No wonder I voted for her – twice. But times have changed.

Once saintly, Jacinda now appears merely silly, having led New Zealand to a place that looks more like a smug cul-de-sac than a nation wholly reliant on overseas tourism and trade. Then again, long-term strategic thinking was never a feature of her government’s Covid response, with “elimination” taking precedence over vaccination for much of 2021.  

Incidentally in the comments of that article I see that eternal Labour bootlicker, Russell Brown, had crawled out from whatever obscure rock he lives under nowadays, to fight for his beloved Wonder Girl who must be supported 100%, 24/7/365, and with the usual accusations of racism, natch.

But as usual it’s the USA I’m most interested in and, as I pointed out here, here, here and here, governments around the world would only start slacking off on their Chinese Lung Rot restrictions when polls began to turn against them. Back on February 11, one of the D.C. insiders, Politico, saw that the Mid-Term elections were coming hard and nasty – and for once was willing to call the bullshit of The ScienceTM that would be attached:

Democrats are making a U-turn on mask mandates, just in time for the midterms.

It’s happening among the party’s governors, several of whom are easing up their masking rules as Covid’s Omicron wave fades. And it’s happening on the Hill, where Democrats are suddenly lining up to call for rollbacks of the nation’s most noticeable pandemic-era rule.

People had fun with this:

Things became even more fun when Brandon’s very own pollster found out that his Covid Zero policy was hated by Americans and advised that it was time to declare victory and move on. See part of the pollster’s memo below:

That’s why President Oatmeal Brain went from this…

… to all that unity mush in his sad little SOTU the other day.

Even some factual stuff was permitted to see the light of day in more public media areas, starting with RealClearInvestigations:

Correction, Mr. President: This Is a Deadly Pandemic of the Vaccinated Too
Despite promises from President Biden and top health officials that COVID-19 vaccines would prevent severe illness, death, and perhaps even transmission of the virus, data indicate that thousands of Americans are dying from the disease even after having been vaccinated.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla made the same point more bluntly in an interview with Yahoo News on January 10, 2022. “We know that two dose[s] of the vaccine offer very limited protection, if any,” he said. “The three doses with a booster … offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths, and against deaths I think very good.”

That’s a very solid article, especially as it also takes the CDC to task for not releasing vast amounts of data lest it “be misinterpreted as the vaccines being ineffective.”  Yes, even at this stage we can’t have that.

Meanwhile CNN’s favourite TV doctor, Leena Wen, came out and started talking about the damage being done to kids with all the Zoom learning and mask-wearing, especially among pre-schoolers, citing a new study about major developmental delays in schoolchildren.

You.

Don’t.

Say.

But I thought kids were resilient? At least that’s what the American school teacher unions and their Democrat Party servants assured us. Moreover Wen should know about the outer limits of resiliency in children as she used to run Planned Parenthood. She’s got hands-on experience testing their physical resiliency.

But aside from polling, political and “new” medical analysis, the best example of how bad things are for the Democrats and how their supporters are gagging to get them turned away from General Tso’s Sickness mandates, there’s always Saturday Night Live.

SNL has been shit for two decades and I’ll warn you now that this one is cringe-worthy, even though it has the very funny John Mulaney in it (VPN may be needed to view it). It’s a dinner party skit about six left wingers discussing whether …. masks and vaccines were actually necessary, and the social reactions associated with raising such topics in the land of the smug and certain. Amazing how quickly the pivot has happened.

But that skit showcases one of the big problems the Democrats are going to have with this pivot, their own base can’t go back to normal – and not just on masks.

The question for New Zealand is when the same thing will happen here, especially given the steady slide of Labour in the polls to the point where the seats are Labour/Green 54/120, National/ACT 63/120.

I’ve said for some time that as useful to the government as this fear factor has been, driven both by them and our hysterical media, it would actually start to bite them in the ass when the inevitable return to normality began.

I reckon about 20% of our population continue to be scared shitless by this virus, despite Omicron’s well-established mildness, them being triple-vaxxed and so forth. I see it in people’s behaviour every day; you still see people wearing masks outdoors or while driving alone, scanning in (when the government has dumped the people who were tracking and tracing), and so forth.

I also look at examples like Chris Trotter’s petting zoo at his blog; they’re still pissed about Jacinda lifting the Level 4 lockdown late last year, convinced that it could have worked a second trick and obtained “Covid-Zero” with the Delta variant. If they still believe that in the face of their own political heroes giving up on it then what else will they have a hard time letting go of?

Vox Populi? Vox Humbug!

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That was General Sherman’s summation of the press’s response to General Grant’s great victory at Vicksburg on July 4, 1863. Sherman, a solid friend of Grant, bluntly said that while the press were praising the man now it came only after months of calling him a useless drunkard, and that they would turn on him again tomorrow when something went wrong.

I’ve already written – in Political Science and From ZOMG Omicron to “Long Covid”, – of the about-faces being taken by the likes of the CDC, Dr Fauci, Democrat governors and their MSM stenographers on Chinese Xi Snot-related things like masks, PCR tests, quarantine periods and what case numbers really mean – all of which is happening as the fortunes of the Democrat party nosedive, which is a complete coincidence.

The explosion in Omicron case numbers is just further evidence of how all those messages have to change if the Democrats are going to avoid being held responsible, although given how hard they pushed it in 2020 it’s going to be a slog to get away from stuff as blatant as “I’m gonna shutdown the virus”. The US MSM will try to help of course.

One of them, opinionater economist Paul Krugman, has become the go-to man for having to eat his words on almost every issue you can think of, entirely because of his pathetic and slavish devotion to the Democrats.

Sad to see what has become of a Economics Nobel prize winner, but he’s not alone.

They’re also refusing to cover the worsening shortages of food and other goods in US stores – which is a result of the impact on supply chains of their C-19 responses – leaving it to the British MSM, who are not so invested in defending Biden, to do the job, as the Daily Mail does here with “Back in the USSR“:

Holy Guacamole, sports fans. In 1989 Boris Yeltsin visited a Randalls supermarket in Texas and was so astonished with what he saw that he was despondent on the flight to Miami: “he sat motionless, his head in his hands… the last vestige of Bolshevism collapsed inside of the man”.

The odds of “President” Biden and his staff having a similar Come To Jesus moment after looking at the current #BareShelvesBiden are about zero, which is quite telling in comparison to a man who grew up in a communist system but could still face reality and learn.

As National Review’s Jim Geraghty (moderate Right Wingers you can trust) points out, local TV stations and newspapers, and their websites, across the USA, are covering this story, complete with those all-powerful photos of empty shelves, but their National affiliates refuse to pick it up.

The likes of Krugman, Hiltzik, and many other Democrat Operatives With Bylines continue to get published. However, they clearly are feeling the heat of those massive declines in readership (Die MSM, Die – Dying, they still beckon) because now they’re trying to take out their new competitors. Two recent examples are Joe Rogan, who they have whinged to Spotify about, asking them to pull his podcasts due to his “misinformation”….

… and then a hit-piece on “broadcaster”, Dan Bongino. The latter was seen as one of the successors to Rush Limbaugh but, like the Bernie Sanders-supporting Rogan, their impact is via Internet podcasts rather than talk-radio, let alone other older media – and not through the ring-fenced Social Media gardens of TwitFace and company either.

The fight was never summed up better than Bongino’s response to the The New Yorker.

It’s no surprise then that despite their great strivings to support Biden, the MSM is failing on that front as well, with his latest Quinnipiac poll at 33% popularity, three points down from the same poll in November in a year-long trend of decline. That’s five points worse than Trump was at the same stage of his first year (38% approval). Other recent polls are just as bad:

Not only that, but he’s dragging his entire party to its doom – although I’m not prepared to let Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and the rest of those idiots and their idiot policies off the hook:

That is a huge turnaround. I can recall nothing like it, even in years like 1994, 2002, 2010 and 2014 when the GOP kicked Democrat butt Mid-Term.

In the face of this, the Whitehouse idiots decided that what’s needed is a new messaging strategy – and they’re including the head of the CDC in that.

According to the WSJ, Walensky has been undergoing extensive media prep and has been coached by a media consultant ahead of several public briefings she plans to hold in the coming future.

On Monday, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) told Fox News that the CDC should replace Rochelle Walensky with “someone who is compassionate, who is consistent, and where the messaging is clear.”

I guess Rachel Walensky’s flip flops on masks, PCR tests, quarantine periods, case numbers and vaccine boosters have proved to be a problem for Biden . Yeah! That’s the ticket, because even Biden can be different from the guy who said this:

“Even Dr. King’s assassination did not have the worldwide impact that George Floyd’s death did.”

Plus about ten billion other stupid things that have fallen out of his dementia-ridden old brain. Their first such effort was a 2 hour Biden press conference that had tongue-bathing journalists like the execrable PBS “reporter”, Yamiche Alcindor (PBS! How low have they sunk), raving about how he’d managed to stand up for so long.

Meantime, other people noted that on the issue of Ukraine alone he’d basically repeated what his military advisors had told him – that Putin has to do something, “would win“, with a “minor incursion” – shit that you’re not supposed to blab in public. This has resulted in both Russia and the US pulling staff from their embassies in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, plus a blast at Biden from the Ukrainian President. It was so bad that even Late Night, Democrat Party, Cock Holster Comedian, Steven Colbert, took him to task on it.

“I would hate to see Joe as a hostage negotiator. ‘Why don’t we all just calm down? Just let everyone go…or shoot them.’ You gotta do something!”

But the most concise summation was this one from a former Special Assistant to GW Bush – who in 2020 undoubtedly bought into all the bullshit about Biden that he now professes to be surprised about – which is why he’s allowed on CNN:

As I’ve pointed out before, this is not a temporary glitch. This is what Biden always was, and unlike other Presidents who have been in trouble, he’s not capable of digging himself out of this hole.

As a result, the following cartoon that I’ve occasionally made reference to – published in early 2020 when all the Democrat nominees looked like losers – looks more prescient all the time.

And voila!

Written by Tom Hunter

January 24, 2022 at 12:40 am

I’M INTERESTED IN YOUR REACTION

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Written by The Veteran

May 21, 2021 at 2:44 pm

Posted in New Zealand

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GENUINE QUESTION

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Someone will correct me if I’m wrong but my understanding is that the ‘wasted vote’ (parties that fail to crack the 5% threshold or fail to win an electorate seat) is effectively apportioned among those parties who make it make into parliament thus increasing their percentage vote.

If that’s right and if numbers in last nights poll hold up it appears the wasted vote could go as high as 10% (or even 15% if the Greens fail to make it back).

Certainly add the result for NZF, the New Conservatives, TOP, Maori Party, Advance NZ plus a bit more for the minor minors and you get to 10%.

This being so, despite what I said in a comment yesterday, Labour at over 50% (with the wasted vote) and they would be nuts not to go it alone and leave the Greens (if they make it) languishing on the cross benches certain in the knowledge that come 2023 they will, like the quintessential ‘battered wife’, be there ready, waiting (albeit not so able) to feed off crumbs from St Jacinda’s table.

Written by The Veteran

September 23, 2020 at 3:22 pm

Posted in NZ Politics

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ON POLLS

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Polls are but a snapshot of yesterday’s thinking and need to be treated with caution remembering always that the election is 21 months away and seven days in politics is a long time.

Nevertheless the final TV1 poll for 2018 made for interesting reading and, for what it is worth, here are my thoughts …

National will be buoyed/relieved and will enter the holiday season with bragging rights.   It has regained its position as the largest preferred Party and is now polling ahead of where it was at the election.   It seems the JLR affair has had minimal impact and, if anything, has strengthened Bridges’ hand although clearly he has yet to achieve cut-through with the electorate.

Labour won’t loose much sleep over the poll after-all, they’re in government and government is where the action is.    They too are ahead of where they were on at the election although having shed a couple of percentage points from their high.    Clearly though some of the gloss is wearing off … that comes with the territory of being in government.   The Sroubek affair will not have helped.

For me the real interest is what’s happening with the minor parties.

The Greens are now flirting with the moe having dropped 2 percentage points.    I had always assumed their bedrock support was in 6-7% range but that had never been tested with them actually in government.   I suspect the reasons for the drop are threefold … #1  minor parties in a coalition government tend to come off second best … #2  Labour will have poached some of their soft support and #3  their drift to the hard left, orchestrated by co-leader Marama Davidson, will have alienated some of their moderate supporters.    There is a chance, albeit a small one (70-30) the next election could see the Greens out of Parliament.

Winston First are now back under the threshold and the question is will we see a repeat of 2011.   Some of the patience of ‘his’ true believers will be starting to wear thin with their capitulation on the Maori seats issue; the meek acceptance of the destruction of our oil and gas industry; ‘his’ unnecessary involvement with the Sroubek affair and now the government’s likely signing up to the Compact on Migration at odds with their anti-immigration stance.   It seems their sole election strategy is to try and buy the Northland seat with taxpayer money … unlikely to succeed … Northland will take the money and say thank you very much but we haven’t forgotten ‘your’ axing of the Wellsford to Whangarei highway and, by the the way, Jones is the wrong candidate with zip mana. You can never underestimate WRP but I would hazard a guess that right now and, on the balance of probabilities,  NZ First is destined for the garbage-bin of history come 2020.

ACT … Yeah right.

All others … see above.

It is certainly within the realms of possibility that post 2020 we could see Parliament comprising just two parties.   A FPP result in a MMP environment.   Now that would be interesting.

Written by The Veteran

December 5, 2018 at 10:52 pm

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with ,

THE MSMs LUV AFFAIR WITH JACINDA

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The MSM have gushed collectively over Jacinda taking over from her boss in the preferred Prime Minister stakes as reported in the Newshub-Reid Research poll out yesterday.   No great surprise given that the little man is polling less than Jeremy Corbyn on track to deliver UK Labour their worst ever result in living history.   Typhoid Mary would probably achieve the same result were her name to be included in the mix.

But glossed over by the media was the state of the parties reported in the poll.   National up 2% to 47.1%; Labour down 1.9% to 30.8%; Greens ‘slightly’ down to 11.2% and Winston First down 0.5% to 7.5%.   Leading the bunch of ‘also rans’ was Gareth Morgan’s anti pussy party on 0.8%.

And that ladies and gentlemen is where the real action is.

Written by The Veteran

March 21, 2017 at 9:20 pm

Posted in New Zealand

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