No Minister

Posts Tagged ‘UK elections


They’re counting the votes in the UK as I write this in elections to decide the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments; local government in England and the Hartlepool by-election … and there are surprises aplenty already.

In Hartlepool where Labour was defending a 3,500 majority, having held the seat since 1964, it appears that the Tories are in for a big win with Labour’s Shadow Transport Secretary effectively conceding the seat … a seat that was widely viewed as a litmus test as to whether Sir Keir Starmer as the new Labour leader was cutting the mustard.

So if Boris is seen by some as a joke then perhaps the jokes on Sir Keir.

Written by The Veteran

May 7, 2021 at 3:48 pm

Posted in Britain

Tagged with ,

British Labour and the 2019 Election

Perhaps it’s too simplistic an analysis, but the 2019 British general election was basically the second Brexit referendum and the key difference between the two major parties was that the Conservatives figured that out while Labour did not.

Labour had a huge, cluttered manifesto and a wishy-washy stance on Brexit, all in complete contrast to the simple message of Boris and the Conservatives, on which they showed incredible message discipline and which cut through all other messages almost every day of the campaign: Let’s Get Brexit Done.

But Labour certainly had other big problems, and still does, starting with their Marxist leader – and his Marxist minions.

Got a face like a smacked arse now, haven’t ya, Corbyn?


Actually, judging by his speech on Thursday night, there’s no sign that Jeremy Corbyn feels any shame or embarrassment at all in having led the British Labour Party to its fourth loss, the second in a row under his leadership, and the worst result since 1935!

First let’s review the numbers:

So Boris actually did only a little better than May’s “failure” in 2017. But he wins a much bigger victory because of the huge drop in the Labour vote in their FPP system. It looks like about 1.5 million 2017 Labour voters went to the SNP and Lib Dems in 2019; more importantly another million just didn’t bother voting.

I’m Jo Swinson and you WILL vote “yes” for the EU

The SNP took full advantage and slaughtered Labour in Scotland, where the Tories had already been long dead.

But even with all those additional Labour votes the Lib Dems, a party that for almost forty years has aimed to supplant or equal Labour and the Conservatives, basically collapsed. As recently as 2010 they had 57 seats. Before this election they had 21. Now they have 11.

And their leader, Jo Swinson, who was yammering about the possibility that she could become Prime Minister, is no longer even an MP, having lost her seat. For “centrists” it’s a hard pill to swallow. If you’re a fringe party then maybe you’re the extremists.

Meanwhile Corbyn says he’s going to stick around as leader while the Labour Party does some big, internal review. Frankly I don’t know why they’d bother while Momentum – the Party-Within-The-Party – continues to hold such sway, together with those thousands of new “Labour” members who joined on the cheap and were allowed to vote Jeremy into the leadership position.

Those are structural things and unless they’re changed the British Labour Party will be treated the same way Lenin treated Russia in 1917, with a very small number of key people and activists driving the whole thing.

I don’t see much hope of change if the following comments are anything to go by, and although I’ve culled these from The Standard here in NZ (doing the work you don’t want to – ick), there’s no question they’re a perfect match for what’s being said in online forums today by their British comrades.

The tories will take this chance to blitzkrieg their economy just like the Rogergnomes did to ours in 1984-1988. Bye bye NHS and anything else of value not tied down.

The Conservatives were putting forward White Papers in 1944 for an NHS, and they’ve managed it for over forty years of its 71 years of existence. Even the dreaded Thatcher refused to touch it. But sure, Boris and company will flog it off.

To fully appreciate the scale of manipulation here, one has to appreciate why British Billionaires backed Brexit. The only real threat to the power of the 1% within Britain was EU regulation to force transparency and close tax havens….

Basically the whole of London’s financial class – “The City” as they say – opposed Brexit, as did any number of British billionaires. Are there no billionaires in the EU, or if there are, are they significantly hamstrung by the EU and don’t have tax havens? FFS, the ignorance on display here is stunning, as well as being yet another example of how the Left believe in the power of the regulating state and never question how wealthy people are the ones that capture such a state for their own ends – especially to get wealthier.

Brexit is a blindsiding of Westminster Democracy for a neoliberal plutocracy hell bent on taking power no matter what the price. Dark days are ahead for Britain under neoliberal Boris and Labour’s impending implosion into sectarian fighting will ensure two terms.

Don’t you worry my little Far Lefter: I’m sure many of those billionaires are on board for the fight against AGW – and the Tories will probably hand over the cash so they look like they’re doing something about it.

Dredging through all this you’d have to conclude that there are no problems with either the leadership of Corbyn and his Marxist aides, or with their fabulous policies, which we are assured “The People” love?

This calls for a Star Trek TNG double facepalm.

Then there were the organisational stuffups, which is what I expect from Marxists now, as identified by one pissed off Labour staffer:

Party staff were divided into two camps during this election. Those who had fought election campaigns before 2017, and repeatedly warned that the data pointed to massive losses, and those whose political education starts and ends with Corbyn, who believed blind faith and winning the Twitter war would see Jeremy propelled into Number 10.

Although I’ve long suspected that the managerial capabilities of Marxists have always been overblown, even during their revolutions. The success of Lenin and Mao is more a case of their opponents being even more useless, with any revolutionary management weak points papered over by the crude effects of using large-scale violence and terror. Without the latter all the centralised, bureaucratic bumble-fucking of later decades was simply the revealed truth. So goes Corbyn and company today.

There was an unprecedented mis-allocation of party resources. Activists were being bussed to no-hoper seats and concentrated in London until a fortnight ago. Staffers with no organisational experience, but the requisite ideological purity, were handed senior paid campaign roles. There was a total lack of control as Momentum directed their volunteers to seats where Momentum activists were standing.

You often read this about losing campaigns, along with blunt, over-stuffed manifestos. But that’s not the real long-term problem Labour faces even with their Brexit confusion no longer an issue.

Alan Johnson, former Labour Home Secretary and a man who lives in a Working Class place in Yorkshire, absolutely gets stuck in during ITV’s election night coverage, with one of the key leaders of Momentum sitting right beside him.

I’m afraid the Working Classes have always been a big disappointment to John and his cult.

Jeremy Corbyn was a disaster on the doorstep. Everyone knew that he couldn’t lead the Working Class out of a paper bag.

Aiming to keep the purity. The cultural betrayal goes on. You’ll hear it now more and more in the next couple of days as they… this little cult… get their act together.

I want them out of the party. I want Momentum gone. Go back to your student politics.

Another commentator also gives a glimpse of this in looking at the seat of Bolsover, formed in 1950 and held ever since by Labour, with the current MP holding it since 1970. He was 87 years old and a ex-miner.

Dennis Skinner has been there forever, in an impregnable Labour fortress, and now he’s gone – like the mines, the jobs, and the hope. No point trying to sugar-coat this result, Labour heartlands that loathed Thatcher even when she won landslides, have gone to the Tories now. You can’t replace those with a handful of university towns.

Oh come now. He should be thanking Thatcher for closing all those coal mines and cutting CO2 emissions: she had a science degree, and saved Labour the trouble of destroying their lives later.

But I got more enjoyment from another similar “shock” Tory win.

Yes, “Gorgeous George” – a vile, evil little shit who paved the way years ago for the Far Left huggers of Western-hating forces to take over Labour – got 489 votes.

But then why vote for George when Labour now think the same way, but have a better shot at power?

West Bromwich East and Bolsover are just two examples of what happened to Labour seats everywhere – even those they won – as its ties with the Working Class were severed for the first time in decades, in some places in a century.

These and many other seats are examples of what has been happening in recent years as “the continental plates of Western democracies appear to be cracking and shifting“, with “The Toilers” increasingly turning away from their supposed defenders.

The same Labour staffer as before sums it up:

This election is a damning indictment that finally proves these despicable London-living politicos and pundits do not understand the working classes and never will, and what comes next is on them.

The Swing Vote: 2017 vs 2019

He could just as well be speaking of working class Americans in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania reacting to the East and West coast snots of the Democrat Party. And yet what is the response of the Corbynites?

The Brexit campaign used Boris and Farage as front people while exploiting Cambridge Analytica’s ability to target angry white working men who had been left behind by globalisation. Manipulating working class resentment into making a decision like Brexit to ensure the power of the 1% is as Machiavellian as it gets.

Cambridge Analytica? Man, that is so USA 2016. The curse word now should be those colonial upstarts Topham Guerin.

Were those white working men as easy to manipulate by Labour in the past? Is that why Labour won? Or were they perhaps voting with a combination of hope and to best serve their self-interest? And if they were voting for those reasons back then – with all that “Working Class Solidarity” being so much bunk – then why is that not an equally good explanation now?

But no! Now it’s a manipulation by dark, nefarious voices good at stirring up “discord” via Social Media. And lying. And racism. It has to be, right?

I so hope they keep thinking that way – and globally too.

UPDATE: From a commentator on this thread:

Written by Tom Hunter

December 14, 2019 at 9:27 pm


The electoral landscape in the UK has been rewritten and Labour has been decimated … but it’s only the beginning of the story for Labour because while Corbyn will exit into the shadows the reality is that the Party machine is in the hard grip of the Corbynestas and their Party within the Party … Momentum.  

You only had to listen to the incredible rant by John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor and a Corbynesta to the core to understand ‘they’ will employ all means, fair and foul, to retain power no matter the cost to a once proud Party.   There will be blood on the floor, lotsa blood, and the UK will be the loser because democracy needs a functioning opposition to  provide the necessary checks and balances in calling the government to account.     A Labour Party controlled by the Corbynestas, committed to the class struggle, is not a functioning opposition.

I have to say I really thought this was the election where the Lib-Dems would shine.   They were the only Party campaigning against Brexit up front and I thought the Remain vote would coerce around them.   It did, but not in sufficient numbers for them to achieve cut-through and the ended the night with only twelve MPs with their leader losing her seat to the SNP.    The Lib-Dems were formed in 1981 when the Liberal Party joined forces with the SDLP (which had broken away from the Labour Party).    Prior to the election they had 21 MPs which included a number of MPs who had defected from both the Conservatives and Labour.    All those defectors lost their seats.   One of the real oddities of British politics is that there remains a rump of the Liberal Party standing under their own name … mainly in the south-west which was once Liberal Party heartland … and in opposition to the Lib-Dems.   Yesterday the Liberals polled 10,876 votes.

The SNP did well taking seats off the Conservatives. the Lib-Dems and Labour with Labour now reduced to just one seat in Scotland.    Sturgeon is once again beating the drum for a second ‘once in a lifetime’ referendum on independence.   It won’t happen soon if at all.   If it does the UK will be well gone of the EU and I doubt the EU will have any great appetite to admit an independent Scotland which would require massive and ongoing financial support from Brussels in order to keep functioning.

But all this is just a sideshow,   Big bad Boris is the man of the hour … he has been given a huge mandate.   His ‘One Nation’ Conservative Party is not the Conservative Party of old.   It is much more blue collar, working class, than chattering class.    The task for BJ and the Conservatives is to lock in that blue collar vote … do that and two/three terms a beckon.

One final thought … Topham Guerin, Topham Guerin, Topham Guerin.   Gonna cause the Fairy Princess and the CoL some sleepless nights methinks.   

Written by The Veteran

December 13, 2019 at 11:05 pm

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with ,

The British Election Funhouse (2019 edition)

There seems to have been some recent excitement about the latest British election campaign as we get into the last few days before the vote. A poll from the Grundian had the Tories on 46 and Labour on 31, whereas The Times had a poll one day later with the numbers as Tory 43 – Labour 33.

I’ve also seen comments about “nervousness” creeping into Boris’s ranks as the gap supposedly closes in some running polls.

Uh huh. Sounds more like parts of the British MSM trying to put their increasingly weak fingers on the scale in a last desperate appeal to vote Labour – plus other sections who’ll support the Tories but will also publish anything for click-bait rather than the boring coverage of an election where nothing dramatic has changed in weeks.

Readers of NoMinister might therefore enjoy an analysis that does not tip over into partisanship nor is driven by click-bait needs. A chap called Evan Scrimshaw takes a rather refreshing look at polling and the bigger issues often missed, starting with the great polling screwup of 1992, where Tory Transport Secretary, Malcolm Rifkind, was being interviewed on the BBC Election night show:

When asked about that forecast, Rifkind unloaded; “how can you say we’re doing badly in Scotland when we’ve just won back South Aberdeen from the Labour Party and when we’ve held on to Sterling which all the experts confidently claimed we would lose … all your predictions have been turning out to be wrong, therefore I think you were very unwise to make that prediction.”

After that election – when super-squishy “wet” Tory leader John Major somehow pulled out an election win that ultimately meant the Tories would govern for just shy of twenty years – the pollsters made lots of excusing noises about improving their methods. And it’s true that they’ve done better in Britain since then, although they had small miss in 2015 and the Brexit vote was a pretty big black eye. Scrimshaw explains how improving the detail on the numbers may not be the answer:

…the narrative got away from the math, because the narrative made more sense, but the idea that Michael Forsyth would get an increase in his majority but half of the Scottish Tory caucus would lose should have been seen for what it was – and what it ended up being. It was laughable, and worthy of the contempt that Rifkind showed it.

Ah yes, that scary old “narrative” again, the Achilles heel of the modern MSM. And appying it to the 2019 election…

IPSOS-Mori released some polling this week (although, no top-line vote intention numbers). One of their questions was expected result of the election, where by 44% to 38% voters expect this election to end with one side ending up with a majority as opposed to a hung Parliament, and only 34% believing the Conservatives will get the majority they want.

In other words “people” think the election will be close. There’s a poll and a question that makes it so. Scrimshaw pours cold water on that by looking at overall polling numbers in a different, and more relevant way:

… here’s the 2019 UK Election in a nutshell – per the most recent YouGov polling, the Tories are at 72% with Leave voters and 16% of Remain voters, on average, with Labour on 48% with Remain voters and 14% with Leavers, and those broad findings are backed up by the findings of Survation, ComRes, and Opinium. The Tories are winning with their good group over Labour’s good group by 20-25%, and with their bad group over Labour’s bad group by about 5%.

But why look at it in terms of Remain vs Leave rather than Tory vs. Labour vs LibDem?

The media conception of who the swing voter in the UK is much the same as in the US – the fiscally conservative, socially liberal suburbanites who like tax cuts, “responsible” spending decisions, and who would feel perfectly comfortable living in any major US or European city.

As a local example David Farrar of Kiwiblog fits that description perfectly, and Scrimshaw points out that MSM types hang around such people almost exclusively, which just reinforces the narrative about all these “sensible” people swinging elections.

Trouble for the narrative is that they’re not the swing voters anymore:

The new swing voter in the UK is the reason the Tories are on track for a large majority government. The new swing voter is the fiscally liberal, socially conservative voter who wants more money spent on northern towns and health care in regional areas and less money spent on “elites”, which routinely means whoever that voter isn’t a fan of. 

They’re wary of immigrants, mad at the Blair-era broken promise of only 13000/year net immigration from the 2004 EU Accession states – 250000/year would come in the decade after – and is annoyed by social issues that grip the modern left. This class of voter was staunchly Labour for decades, especially in the aftermath of Margaret Thatcher’s term in office.

Note that “socially conservative” does not necessarily mean religious! Swap the words Tory, Labour, Blair and Thatcher for GOP, Democrats, Obama and Bush and you’re talking of US swing voters who elected Trump. And of course that point about the comparisons between Boris and TheDonald have to be included:

To those kinds of people, Boris Johnson is a Trumpian figure – an unserious grifter whose unseriousness should be so obvious it should be immediately apparent he cannot win. 

While to an extent the comparisons may be dubious, there are enough similarities between the two men for the comparison to be worth making. Both are men who come from family wealth and power who attended the best schools available, who flailed around the world of private business and then entered the world of politics. Both are controversial, loose speakers with stories of affairs littered in their pasts, and both took over political parties whose establishment was contemptuous of them. 

And both of them are breaking the political map by outperforming their more conventional predecessors with the new swing voter.

And what of the British Labour Party and those new swing voters? Can Corbyn repeat his magic of 2015 with a burst of Corbymania?

These voters were tempted by Theresa May last time, but went home to Labour because Corbyn did enough to reassure that Brexit would happen. With Labour policy now being a second referendum with an option to Remain – and every senior Labour politician outside Corbyn saying no possible deal is better than staying in – their likelihood of repeating their 2017 trick is somewhere between small and non-existant.

With the pivot point being Remain vs Leave, and analysing Tory vs Labour within that context, Scrimshaw concludes about Labour:

There may be an election where someone has won despite such a bad hand, but it’s not immediately apparent. Predictions of a close race – and anyone who wants to suggest a Hung Parliament is in the offing – should be met with extreme caution at this stage, and the wise words of Sir Malcolm Rifkind should be remembered; as of now, any such prediction would be very unwise, indeed.

Written by Tom Hunter

December 9, 2019 at 6:00 pm


With the departure of Lord Egbut from the blog you are our only regular contributor resident in the UK and with just 72 hours until the media blackout (in the UK) comes into force it would be fascinating you get your take on what’s happening and what’s likely to happen come Thursday.

Egbut, before he went, was of a mind that this was going to the Lib-Dems year and that could be right but it appears to me that the Conservatives are doing rather well and could win a clear majority.     But I see any numbers of commentators are calling it that the election has become as much referendum on Corbyn as anything else following a couple of disastrous media interviews and spending promises that don’t add up.

Now all this may just be me looking thru blue tinted spectacles and you may see it differently.   Look forward to your response. 

Written by The Veteran

December 1, 2019 at 8:00 pm

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with ,

Jeremy Corbyn? Meet Prince Andrew

If you thought that Prince Andrew’s TV interview about his history with Jeffrey Epstein and his “girls” was bad, then you really need to this one pn the BBC with Jeremy Corbyn that happened yesterday in Britain.

Just staggering. At this stage the only thing that seems to be holding Labour up are Remain voters who think that a Liberal-Democrat vote will be wasted.

And Labour’s internal pollsters may know that, which would explain Corbyn’s wooden-headed determination to continue waffling around how to handle Brexit, including in this interview being unable to say who would lead the campaign for his Brexit deal in a second referendum, in which he has pledged to remain neutral!

Then there’s the spending thing, which actually did look like it was under control with tax increases to balance out all that extra spending. Scary, but at least it added up.

Until they sprang a new plan about compensating female pensioners born between 1950-55 for changes made to the pension scheme back in 1995 – the so-called WASPI group (Women Against State Pension Inequality). Trouble is that it will cost £58 billion that Corbyn admitted Labour have not got,  even with their tax increases.

And in then dealing with that whole tax increase thing, Corbyn was rather surprised in the interview to find out that the top 5 per cent of earners, who he has targeted for tax increases, already pay 50 per cent of all income tax. Which is probably why he and shadow chancellor John McDonnell were so gung-ho about such tax increases. It’s quite a common Left-wing belief across the Western world that “the rich” don’t pay enough taxes, including income tax, or that they don’t pay “their fair share“, so naturally facts like this do come as a bit of shock.

And of course this then led Corbyn having to admit Labour would breach its longstanding promise not to raise taxes on workers earning under £80,000.

And all this wreckage is aside from what happened with the whole Jew-Hating problem, where Corbyn assured the interviewer that it had been taken care of inside Labour – only to have no response as specific cases were put to him of Labour activists and candidates saying blatantly classic Jew-hating things and suffering no consequences. One example in particular was getting Corbyn to agree – finally – that the following statement is anti-Semitic:

“Rothschild’s Zionists run Israel and world governments” 

After several attempts Corbyn finally got around to admitting the obvious – and was then confronted with the next logical step:

“So we’re agreed it’s anti-Semitic? Right, that’s all I wanted to establish.

Yet these were the words used by Liam Moore. He’s a Labour member, former council candidate. Your party’s actually been investigating him now for almost a year. … But has he been suspended? He hasn’t been suspended. You said everybody’s been suspended or expelled?”

Is it any wonder that just the other day Britain’s Chief Rabbi slammed Labour for how it deals with anti-Semites – and of course Corbyn had only waffle in responding to the Rabbi too.

There’s actually much more, but you have to watch it for yourself to get a true grasp of how awful an interview it is for Corbyn. I have seen TV interviews this bad, but usually not with politicians and certainly not with the leader of a major political party.

I’m reminded of the stories around Ouroboros: the snake that eats itself.

In ancient mythology it’s supposed to be a story of renewal, but in the case of Corbyn and his Marxist mates it’s more a case of living inside a bubble and consuming yourselves because you can’t escape your own beliefs.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 27, 2019 at 10:01 pm


Our colleague Lord Egbut Nobacon in an earlier post mused whether Jo Swinson. leader of the Liberal Democrats, might be about to experience a ‘Jacinda’ momemt and lead her Party to victory in next months election.    With respect I have to say that is a bridge too far although it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Lib Dems could replace Labour as the main Opposition Party.

Of greater interest to me is whether, assuming the current polling numbers hold up,  Labour itself might might do a Jacinda and kick Corbyn into touch to be replaced with a moderate of the likes of Dan Jarvis who would have wide popular appeal.   On balance however I think this is unlikely.   The ‘Corbynistas’ now control the Party aided and abetted by the Red-shirt Momentum bovver-boy brigade committed as they are to continuing the class struggle of bygone years.    Having tasted power they will not let it go easily.

But yes Egbut, the Lib Dems could well come out of the election holding second prize. 

Written by The Veteran

November 9, 2019 at 11:57 pm

Posted in New Zealand

Tagged with ,


Next months UK election will be fought on Brexit as much as anything else with the ‘Remainers’ about to unleash their secret weapon in a form of a certain Nigel Paul Farage and his Brexit Party.

It is now confirmed that the Brexit Party will stand candidates in 600 seats.   Not for them a ‘compromise’ Brexit.    It’s the real deal or nothing; a wall separating Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and everything a ‘No Deal’ Brexit involves.  

The latest opinion poll out today show a surge in support for the Brexit Party rising 4% to 11% in a new NewGov survey of voter intentions.    The Tory vote was down 1% to 38%; Labour down 2% to just 25% (shades of Labour in NZL just before Andrew Little received his DCM) while the Liberal-Democrats were steady on 16%.

All this could see the brexit (small b) vote split allowing Labour and the Liberal-Democrats to come through the middle.   No matter for the purist … it’s my way or the highway with compromise a dirty word.   Talk about the potential for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Updated (sorta) … a few minutes ago Tom Watson, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, announced he was quitting parliament.   Watson has clashed repeatedly with Corbyn over Brexit and antisemitism.    It would be unfair (to Watson) to characterise his departure as rats leaving a sinking ship.  


Written by The Veteran

November 6, 2019 at 7:30 pm

Posted in New Zealand

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No doubt there will be crowing from our resident lefties based on the headlines but a more balanced view would be that this election saw a return to two party politics in the UK with both the Conservatives and Labour taking between them 84% of the vote.

Labour did well and clearly ‘Red’ Jeremy outperformed Mother Teresa on the hustings.   Indeed, I am attracted to the comment of one political analyst who opined it was as if the Conservatives had picked up Hillary’s 2016 campaign and said ‘We’ll run with that’. 

The result … Labour increased its vote over their 2015 result by 9.5%.  The Tories too increased their share by 5.5%.   The big losers were the Liberal-Democrats (who Egbut was touting to do well based on their anti-Brexit stance) down by 0.5%; the Scots Nationalists by 1.7% (losing 12 seats to the Conservatives with Referendum #2 now dead in the water) and UKIP down a massive 10.8% and about to be consigned to the dustbin of history.

With a projected 319 seats the Conservatives are five seats short of being able to govern in their own right remembering that the seven Sein Fein MPs will not be taking their seats in Westminster in accordance with their long standing policy of refusing to swear the oath of allegiance to the Queen.  The Tories will be reaching out the the Democratic Unionist Party as natural allies (up until 1965 it was the Conservative and Unionist Party) and will form the next government.

As for Corbyn and May … well the former will be 73 years old at the time of the next election assuming Parliament runs full term.   I can’t see him doing a Churchill.   May gambled in calling the early election and lost seats and, in doing so, lost much of her authority.   The Tory Party deals to losers and I would expect they will deal to her … maybe not today, tomorrow or the next day but it will happen and sooner rather than later.   That’s politics.

Written by The Veteran

June 9, 2017 at 7:48 am

Posted in New Zealand

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