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Posts Tagged ‘US Mid-Term Elections

Die MSM, Die – Recent Lies revealed

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A few days ago a guy shot up an LGBT nightclub, killing five people. The US MSM immediately went apeshit, blaming the Republican’s fights against Trans “education” of little kids in schools for creating the Atmosphere Of Hate™ that triggered this Tucker-Carlson-watching-Trump-voting-ULTRA-MAGA man to commit his dreadful crimes.

One of the harshest MSM “journalists” on this narrative was the NBC’s Ben Collins.

And then the Narrative fell apart when the charge sheets were released and it was discovered that the guy insisted on They/Them pronouns.

Yeah. He’s Trans. And all of sudden the message had to be changed, with Ben Collins leading the way in explaining how the guy had been bullied by “Edge Lords” online a few years ago and had finally snapped, etc, etc. This bullshit was summed up perfectly here by Miller’s Tweet.

That’s the extent of their “news gathering.” They’re just Twitter partisans offering up the most repugnantly ignorant and tribalistic twitter hot takes, except instead of just pumping them out on Twitter, the “news” organisations put their Hot Twitter Takes right on television and call them “disinformation reporting.” I’m sure they love Gays Against Groomers.

Local reporters did the work. Amazing how often that has been the case with the US MSM in recent years. But this is true of 100% of these assholes in the new really fake news fields of “fact checking,” “social media coverage,” and “disinformation.” Even in a general field of fake news, these guys stand out as really really fake news. They do no reporting. They do no interviews. Oh wait! No, they’ll send you a nasty DM demanding comment five minutes before the hit piece they’ve written on you goes to print. (Or a couple hours after, in the case of Taylor Lorenz.)

As far as the blame game is concerned you have actually heard all this before:

By mid-afternoon, a graphic with crosshairs “targeting” Democrat districts was shown on CNN, MSNBC, Huffington Post DailyKos, and dozens of other shows and internet sites about every 30 seconds. The map, they loudly claimed, was definitive proof that Sarah Palin’s PAC map had incited Loughner. Palin was to blame. The right was to blame. All Republicans were to blame. By nightfall, the torches were lit and the pitchforks were out. The mob was collectively screaming for blood; the mob wanted Palin’s head on a pike.

That myth, that Sarah Palin’s “crosshairs map” caused that 2011 shooting, has become legend in the same manner of “Hands up, Don’t shoot” or George Floyd has done. Lefties just automatically believe it – and their MSM is worse.

Of course, only a couple of weeks ago there had been a similar story when Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s husband, got hit over the head with a hammer by some weird guy who turned up at his house in San Francisco. In this case it may have had more of a political effect since it happened just before the Mid-Term elections. A brief summary of the MSM takes:

Over on The Daily Blog, good old one-eyed GOP-Christian hating Leftist Paul Buchanan was all over these claims that the attacker was a “MAGA guy. A clear MAGA QAnon guy. The full works”. Sure, Trump voters and MAGA supporters are often found amidst nudist protesters who live in leftwing communes in San Francisco, decked out in BLM signs and gay pride flags.

The bullshit got so bad that an NBC reporter in Washington D.C. got suspended when he committed the unforgivable sin of reporting that the San Francisco Police body cams showed that Pelosi had opened the door for them in a relaxed manner and then walked away from them to stand beside the guy.

Doesn’t sound like he was facing a terrifying MAGA supporter.

The story was pulled and the reporter suspended, with NBC commenting about “NBC standards” not having been followed.

And then, after the Mid-Term elections, a new report appears, courtesy of – you guessed it – another local reporter, that states exactly the same story.

“According to a source familiar with the investigation, who personally watched the police body camera footage from that night, officers knocked on the door of the Pelosi home and then backed away, and the video clearly shows Paul Pelosi open the door with his left hand, just like what was noted in the documents filed by the DA’s office.

“Now, also, as written in the DA docs, the source tells us the body cam video shows officers having a brief conversation with Pelosi and David DePape…before DePape starts beating Pelosi with a hammer.”

The local reporter, who works for a SF affiliate NBC station, has not been suspended and his story has not been pulled. But of course, the Mid-Term’s are past.

Then there is this story:

That’s Jennifer Ruth Green, a 20 veteran in the Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel and now an Air Force Reservist, running in the Indiana 1st District for the GOP. She lost 52.8% to 47.2% against a white man. The following may have had something to do with this:

A few weeks ago Politico ran a hit piece on her, revealing that she had once been the victim of a sexual assault in the Air Force. Why would they reveal this? It doesn’t actually hurt her; it was a gratuitous invasion of privacy. It was the propaganda media just straight up saying, “If you cross us, we will destroy you.”

People cried foul, pointing out that this leak could have only have come from her sensitive confidential government records. Politico claimed no no no, nothing like that, this was a perfectly legal FOIA disclosure. People again said: FOIA requests do not disclose the confidential sexual assaults that military personal might have been victim of. Politico stuck to its story, claiming this was all a legal FOIA request and response.

Politico are Democrat partisan liars.

“On yesterday’s call, the Air Force took full responsibility for improperly releasing Lt. Col. Green’s confidential personnel records to an opposition research firm just weeks before the midterm election. Lt. Gen. Davis informed us that the leaker has been identified and will be held accountable.”

An opposition research firm you say?

Only two Democratic outside firms are working on the Mrvan-Green race, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has paid the Due Diligence Group more than $78,500, while the Mrvan campaign has paid Deep Dive Political Research $10,000.

As always, all this leads to the following question that was raised after the Fetterman-Oz debate revealed how bad a shape Fetterman was in.

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Written by Tom Hunter

November 28, 2022 at 4:54 pm

Fortify your election with SBF Bucks

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Or Zuck Bucks, as they were called after the CEO of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, poured $400 million into getting Joe Biden elected in 2020.

Sam Bankman-Fried Bucks just doesn’t roll off the tongue in the same way, even though he’s been revealed as yet another Democrat Party mega-donor, the largest individual donor to the party outside of Nazi-collaborator George Soros for the just completed Mid-Term elections, the money having been used by the Democrats for “get-out-the-vote” and various ballot-harvesting mechanics.

SPF pumped $10 million into Biden’s campaign in 2020 and then $40 million for the just-completed Mid-Terms, where they were used in the same way as in 2020.

In fact it never was just Zuckerberg or SBF. Take a look at this chart of Big Tech employee donations by political party in the USA and then not be surprised that the likes of Twitter, Facebook and Google (among others) have been acting as censors for the Democrat Party in recent years.

SBF won’t be back given the catastrophic bankruptcy of his ponzi crypto-currency scheme of FTC and Alameda Research (which requires a post all its own) and Zuckerberg’s fortune has collapsed by $100 billion thanks to his company Meta not being the Neuromancer extension of Facebook that he’d hoped for. Of course that still leaves him with $40 billion or so, but perhaps he’ll be forced to pay less attention to elections for a while.

You may recall that great TIME magazine story about how the 2020 election was “fortified”:

There was a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes, one that both curtailed the protests and coordinated the resistance from CEOs. Both surprises were the result of an informal alliance between left-wing activists and business titans. The pact was formalized in a terse, little-noticed joint statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and AFL-CIO published on Election Day. Both sides would come to see it as a sort of implicit bargain–inspired by the summer’s massive, sometimes destructive racial-justice protests–in which the forces of labor came together with the forces of capital to keep the peace and oppose Trump’s assault on democracy.

So the word went out: stand down.

But Zuckerberg’s role was much simpler, because the methods used with Zuckerberg’s $400 million were pretty simple:

The Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL – whose three founders are former co-workers at the Democrat-aligning New Organizing Institute) and The Center for Election Innovation and Research (CEIR – whose founder was formerly a director of the leftwing People For the American Way) passed a staggering $419.5 million of Zuckerberg’s money into local government elections offices, and it came with strings attached. Every CTCL and CEIR grant spelled out in great detail the conditions under which the grant money was to be used.

The CTCL had been a small outfit founded in 2012 with its yearly revenues from contributions and grants had maxed out one year at $2.84 million

Conditions? More like processes that this vast sum was poured into:

  • Self-described “vote navigators” in Wisconsin to “assist voters, potentially at their front doors, to answer questions, assist in ballot curing … and witness absentee ballot signatures,” Philadelphia got $10 million to hire new city employees (fresh from local activist groups) to go door to door delivering ballots. Since they worked for the election office, everything was “legal.” They bought radio advertising on Spanish and urban radio stations; “vote by mail, no need for any witnesses anymore!”
  • The promotion of universal mail-in voting through suspending election laws, extending deadlines that favoured mail-in over in-person voting, greatly expanding opportunities for “ballot curing,” expensive bulk mailings, and other lavish “community outreach” programs that were directed by private activists.

Especially in swing states, the rules were thrown out in the name of an emergency. In Nevada, the state rushed to all of the mail-in ballots being sent automatically, even though the Public Interest Legal Foundation had documented tens of thousands of dead registrants, vacant lots and commercial addresses on the voter rolls. Other states suspended their laws: Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona, North Carolina, and more. In Virginia, the law said that mail ballots had to come in by election day or three days after election day, but only if they were postmarked by election day. Virginia state election officials ignored the law and issued rules to accept late ballots without any postmark. They called it “fair.”

  • Unmonitored private dropboxes (which created major chain of custody issues) and opportunities for novel forms of “mail-in ballot electioneering,” which allowed for numerous questionable post-election-day ballots to be submitted. as well as providing another way to help ballot harvesting.
  • Temporary staffing and poll workers, which supported the infiltration of election offices by paid Democratic Party activists, coordinated through a complex web of Democrat-leaning non-profit organisations, social media platforms, and social media election influencers.

More detail on all this here. CTCL and CEIR are registered 501(c)(3) corporations that can be created for elections but which are supposed to be non-partisan.

Under the Internal Revenue Code, all section 501(c)(3) organizations are absolutely prohibited from directly or indirectly participating in, or intervening in, any political campaign on behalf of (or in opposition to) any candidate for elective public office. Contributions to political campaign funds or public statements of position (verbal or written) made on behalf of the organization in favor of or in opposition to any candidate for public office clearly violate the prohibition against political campaign activity.

Does the following look like non-partisan spending?

Of the 26 grants CTCL provided to cities and counties in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia that were $1 million or larger, 25 went to areas Biden won in 2020. 

What are the odds that the Biden IRS will be investigating CTCL and CEIR?

As another article put it about those Zuck Bucks: They converted election offices in key jurisdictions with deep reservoirs of Biden votes into Formula One turnout-machines.

The 2020 election was not stolen. It was purchased.

Eight lessons for the GOP – or more

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In the wake of a very disappointing mid-term election for the Republican Party there’s already a lot of dissection of the results and their meaning going on in the US Right Wing.

But before reading about that, I was amused by this story of a guy in Florida who went undercover working for the Fetterman campaign in Pennsylvania doing call-ups by phone. He also joined a smaller Florida GOP campaign later on to do the same thing.

The talking points delivered to him to repeat to registered Democrats to vote are great:

The Democrats use software called Scale to Win. It sometimes took a minute or two to find a live person for me to talk to, but eventually the names of voters popped up on my screen. All my calls were to registered Democrats in Pennsylvania.

In case anyone challenged us, we were to say that Fetterman was “on a path to a well-paying career in the insurance industry” before he essentially decided to be a do-gooder following the death of a friend.

I asked him what his concern was and he said, “basically denying election results.” I asked him if he was referring to Trump and Republicans questioning the 2020 election and he confirmed that he was. Then I asked him if he had also been concerned with Hillary Clinton’s continued efforts to dispute the results of the 2016 election and his voice grew confused then angry. “Oh wow…Hillary…wait, where are you calling from?” I stumbled trying to decide what to say, and amid my hesitation, he hung up.

Heh, heh. The propaganda was already laid and set: “tell me what the MSM already got me to believe and make me feel good so I’ll vote Democrat”. The contrast in professionalism was not good either:

I made dozens of calls, using my own phone, and got nothing but voicemail. “The Dems have better technology than us because the tech companies help them,” Henson said when I told her how many Pennsylvania Democrats I’d spoken to.

Trump

Suffice to say that there’s already blood-letting going on over the vast, looming presence of Donald Trump in this election – and over what that says about the 2024 election. Ever since Trump lost in 2020 I’ve held that at 78 years of age in 2024 I don’t want him to be President again, as I’ve grown very tired of the octogenarians running the US government across the Presidency, Senate and House. I also know that Trump is too toxic to win in 2024, when he won’t be facing someone even more toxic than himself as he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016. The 2022 results, arising from the Democrats making Trump and abortion the centerpiece of their campaigns, will likely mark the beginning of Trump’s decline inside the GOP, as even former supporters declare that it’s time to move on (read the Powerline comments from their post Unquiet Flows The Don).

The latest example is from Washington state, where a Trump-backed candidate beat the GOP incumbent in the primary (she’d voted for Trump’s impeachment) and then lost an R+13 district in the General! And before I bitch about McConnell not spending money to help the GOP Senate candidate in Alaska – because that would have hurt his ally, Murkowski – you should also note that Trump gave more money to David Perdue in the Georgia Governor’s GOP primary in losing to Brian Kemp than he gave to Blake Masters for the Arizona Senate race (Kemp went on to win the Georgia general election in a thumping victory).

Never-Trump and the GOPe

But the Never-Trumper wing of the party – in particular the Bush/Cheney/Romney/McCain section – should stop kidding themselves that the end of Trump means a comeback for them and their policies. They’re more dead than Trump will be in a couple of years time, less because of their opposition to Trump than because of the fanaticism they’ve brought to the fight, which has sometimes exceeded even that of the Democrats, and which has recently seen many actively stumping against all Republicans around the country.

Also included in holding the bag for this crap is the current leadership of the GOP – McConnell in the Senate, McCarthy in the House, and their lower-level enablers. Blaming Trump is not enough to deflect blame here; they’re in charge, Trump was not. Read what this losing Republican candidate in the Ohio-9 House district describes as the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) “helping” him in an R+3 district that went for Trump strong in 2020: more like not helping. Moreover, like the Never-Trumpers it’s obvious that many of the GOP Establishment (the GOPe) remain opposed to Trump policies that GOP voters like, such as de-coupling from China, staying out of foreign wars and preserving jobs at home.

If the consultant class really wants to “move on” from Trump, they are going to have to earn the trust of voters (at least those that are persuadable). The first step in doing that would be supporting a fresh slate of leaders at the top of the party. That includes Congressional leadership, but it also includes Ronna McDaniel at the RNC, whose mid-term strategy was so disastrous that she should have immediately resigned in shame.

There are also problems with State-level GOP machines, as the losing Michigan Governor candidate, Tudor Dixon pointed out. I was surprised to learn that both the Michigan House and Senate were held by the GOP (the latter for forty years!) So how did they let Wretched Whitmar get away with so much crap in the last two years? And then they pissed and moaned about their own person, Dixon. Is it any wonder people gave up on them and gave it to the Democrats. A lot of other stuff in the article reads as incompetence as they constantly fought with Dixon: it’s one of the oldest political rules that if voters are presented with crap politicians and policies versus split parties with infighting politicians, they’ll will go with crap. And just look at what those voters are about to get in just that state:

With the election over, Democratic lawmakers are finally making clear that voters shouldn’t expect centrism. Look no further than State Sen. Dayna Polehanki, D-Livonia, who on election night told Michigan exactly what the future holds: “We got ALL the gavels. Get ready for some cha-cha-cha-changes here in Michigan.” She followed it up with a list of leftist policies that are now on the docket — including blocking school choice, investigating charter schools, and repealing Michigan’s historic right-to-work law

More regulations. Higher energy costs. More skin-colour “diversity”. More welfare. More spending.

Learn from Success

Having said that, all of this needs to show up in learning from the GOP successes that happened in this election since it’s always better to learn from success than fight over laying blame for the failures and every Republican should be aware that the Democrats and their MSM/Social Media allies will do everything they can to throw gas on this fire while also keeping the focus on always-Trump (though the “GOP” Never-Trumpers wont’ care about that either).

First off is this fascinating article in City Journal relating what it calls Ron’s Ruleseight rules that every Republican should take from Ron DeSantis’s overwhelming success in Florida:

  1. Stay on offense. 
  2. You can create your own majority with the right approach.
  3. Competence matters.
  4. You don’t necessarily have to move to the center to win over independents. 
  5. You can redraw the political map without pandering.
  6. Create a culture where wokeness cannot thrive.
  7. Deliver a policy-driven approach that works.
  8. Court the moms (with education ideas)

You can read the details about the others at the link but two in particular jumped out at me:

4. You don’t necessarily have to move to the center to win over independents. 
Republicans may have a nearly 300,000 voter advantage in the state, but DeSantis won by more than 1.5 million votes. The ordinary school of thought is that politicians must tack to the center to win independents. DeSantis never did. Instead, he crafted a bold, unapologetically conservative agenda and traveled around the state tirelessly promoting it. As Ronald Reagan proved, you can build a broad coalition with a conservative platform, but you have to be an effective communicator and a great salesman. DeSantis has been both.

5. You can redraw the political map without pandering.
DeSantis scored a double-digit win in Miami-Dade County, which is 70 percent Hispanic—“rewriting the political map,” as he put it, without the kind of ethnic pandering that strategists have claimed is necessary to win the Hispanic vote. Hispanics generally have the same priorities as other Americans, and most reject woke ideology. For years, these same strategists have insisted that Republicans need to embrace amnesty for illegal immigrants and soft immigration enforcement to win the Latino vote. But the polls refute this advice. In fact, according to a recent Telemundo poll, Latino immigrants backed DeSantis’s migrant transfer to Martha’s Vineyard even more strongly than U.S.-born Hispanics.

Also this, which admittedly goes against the grain of a non-collectivist political party:

I’ve worked productively with politicians of all stripes. Democrat politicians are as individualistic as their Republican counterparts. But their party discipline is to spout the party line first and then add their individualism as a modifier in their presentation. Republicans present their individualism first and, quite honestly, don’t have a coordinated party line to offer to the public. You’re not going to get large numbers of uncommitted votes to come your way with that kind of packaging.

The following is perhaps not a lesson that the GOP can learn from, which is the overwhelming Democrat lean of AFWL’s – Affluent Female White Liberals who went for the Democrats by 68% to 31%. The reason there may be no lesson for the GOP or the Democrats here (despite the latter’s glee at this result) is that it portends that A sex war is coming:

The AWFL demographic, relatively underrepresented in the Senate, is overrepresented across media, journalism, nonprofits, HR departments, academia, and school teachers…. And those progressive graduate women who aren’t busy shaping public morals via nonprofits and HR departments are busy doing so for the next generation in schools: 76% of American teachers are women. Inevitably, given that all US states require teachers to hold at least a bachelor’s degree, these are also uniformly drawn from the female demographic most likely to be very liberal.

Amazingly, despite this, Gen-Z did not go heavily for the Democrats as was reported; it turns out that’s yet another standard crap argument that the MSM trotted out because the eternal cry of the Left is that “The Youf Are With Us”:

[T]here was no youthquake. The media has had this narrative coming out that there was this giant army of young Gen Z people voting Democrat — didn’t happen at all. They did vote Democrat, but they came out at a smaller level than they did in 2018, and they actually voted more Republican. The data shows it. 

Back to the chicks!

For knowledge-class progressive women, though, a still more central issue where tech and their interests converge is in the core material obstacle to workplace equality: the female reproductive role, including gestation, childbirth and breastfeeding. For the so-called “gender pay gap” is, in truth, a motherhood pay gap. Thus, for a chance to compete in the knowledge workplace on the same terms as men, women’s bodies also need tech support. So such women are structurally dependent on medical interventions to keep their bodies free from the rigours and long-term obligations of pregnancy, childbirth and dependent children. In other words: for AWFLs overall, abortion really is an existential issue.

So the abortion ploy of the Democrats worked – this time.

For now, the coalition between Clinton feminism, Virtual class interests, and the American electorate seems to be holding up, albeit with some creaking. But for how long? For “progress”, understood as the march of technology, has losers as well as winners. And when “progress” is routinely conflated with “feminism”, you can expect groups who aren’t doing so well under its auspices to take this at face value too – and blame feminists for their suffering.

I can see no possible direction for this to take save a backlash that will likely spill far beyond the class at whom it’s really directed.

Nobody can be a winner forever – and the class war she worries will hurt her feminism is already well underway, judging by the increasingly nasty fate of boys and men in our education systems and workforce, which is already hurting none other than AFWL’s themselves.

Finally there is the machinery of voting where the GOP’s continued focus on Election Day is enabling losses in close races. But that’s for a separate post.

A five-minute conversation with the average voter….

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… is the best argument against democracy.”

So, it is often claimed, did Winston Churchill pronounce upon our system of government – his system of government – as one of his famous quotes.

Except it’s not.

As the International Churchill Society points out on their wonderful website with Red Herrings: Famous Quotes Churchill Never Said:

No attribution. Though he sometimes despaired of democracy’s slowness to act for its preservation, Churchill had a more positive attitude towards the average voter.

I often find myself in need of such positive attitudes when looking at the state of politics in this country and across the Western world, particularly in the wake of the results of the US Mid-term elections.

No, I do not say that because the GOP did less well than they should have, or because they lost some key races. I’m not a doppelgänger for the shrieking hysterics of the likes of “Bomber” Bradbury over at The Daily Blog:

Unlike any midterm before it, it suggests that democracy actually won…

Is that so? The Mid-Terms of 2006 and 2018 where the Democrats kicked ass and took names were not actually democracy winning then? Good to know that from “Bomber”, even if his anarcho-communist brain is obviously also dismissing the Mid-Terms of 1994, 2010 and 2014 as democracy losing because the GOP won big.

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

And my response is also not the mirror-image of the more measured, calmer-sounding extremism of his TDB stable mate Paul Buchanan, who in this pre-election podcast had an “analysis” (and I use that term only in its broadest possible meaning) of the GOP that seemed little more than channeling the slogan of Orwell’s pigs: “Four legs good, two legs bad“. Seriously, if you can groan your way through it, you should listen as he simply repeats every single Democrat Party talking point on every single issue (prodded gleefully along by the equally unbalanced “journalist” Selwyn Manning) – right down to the claims of the “cruel attacks” on the brain-damaged candidate Fetterman, which were nothing more than the usual Democrat efforts at shutting up their opponents.

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

No, I say that I need to maintain a positive attitude toward democracy because of the incredible desire of Democrat voters in Democrat states and cities to continue to vote for Democrats who have hurt them badly. I’m used to this in Chicago and California, but I thought that at least other Democrat parts of the nation – especially the sober citizens of the MidWest – would be better.

Yet the governors of Minnesota and Michigan (among others) were sent back into government even as their own voters registered unhappiness about the terrible impacts on the economic, educational, and social aspects of their states arising from their fanatical application of lockdowns, masks and vaccines – as well as poor performance on things like crime.

It’s not as if they even tried booting these terrible people out in Democratic primaries so they could get another Democrat to vote for in the General Election. Even from the POV of party tribalism I could have understood that. You love the Party, its policies and principles, but hate the politicians.

But these voters actually returned to power the same people who had hurt them and which they complained about hurting them. Unlike NZ in 2020 these Lefties could not even claim the results had been a success, not with tens of thousands dead. So WTF is that? BDSM?

Aside from the Mid-West, the best example actually comes from New York and is more concerned with crime than Chinese Lung Rot, especially since the architect of all those deaths, Andrew Cuomo, had been booted by his own party months ago (for sexual harassment, since that’s worse than getting people killed) and replaced by his Deputy, Kathy “why do you keep talking about crime?” Hochul.

It’s been on her watch that crime has become one of the main issues of NYC and New York state. It was suspected even by Democrats that it might cause her to lose, so much so that they were angry at the Democrat NYC mayor, Adams, who said that Hochul needed to call a special session and roll back new, lax bail laws. But she won anyway. And now we get this:

So, now that Hochul has been elected, New Yorkers are begging her to get crime under control — even those who voted for her.

“Now that Hochul has won, her priority needs to be do something about the crime in the subway,” one voter told The New York Post.

“I’m happy Hochul won, but I don’t want her to think winning gives her a pass to keep things status quo,” said the voter. “She’s got her work cut out for her. None of us who rides the trains feel safe.”

AYFKM?

AYFKM?

Then.
Why.
Did.
You.
Vote.
For.
Her?

I guess it could be worse. I could be her opponent, Lee Zeldin, who ran a good race and got closer than any GOPer has in two decades in New York, sitting there wondering the same thing.

============================================

Looking back at that Churchill link I must say that I wish he had said the following:

“Well, dinner would have been splendid if the wine had been as cold as the soup, the beef as rare as the service, the brandy as old as the fish, and the maid as willing as the Duchess.”

But apparently Churchill never made smutty jokes.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 12, 2022 at 3:12 pm

Thoughts on voting in general

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Good old Silent Cal, still one of the best and most underrated Presidents in US history. Many people have speculated as to how things would have turned out in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash had he still been in charge rather than his idiot VP, Herbert Hoover.

He and the Republicans brilliantly handled a similar crash in 1920, setting the scene for the Roaring Twenties (The Depression You Never Heard of)

The 1929 crash was not the biggest economic crash in history.  It was not even the biggest crash in that decade. In 1920 the stock market fell further and faster than in 1929—and the collapse in the monetary base during 1920–1921 was the largest in U.S. history—yet within eighteen months recovery was complete.

In 1928, despite having been President for most of two terms – having taken over from President Harding when he died – he could have run for office again, and there’s no doubt he would have won in a landslide. But he turned down the opportunity and Hoover got the brass ring instead.

Perhaps I’m being unfair to Hoover, who was quite an intelligent, educated (engineer) and accomplished chap. But his ideas for government, especially in a crisis like 1929, were awful. Coolidge once said of him:

“for six years that man has given me unsolicited advice—all of it bad.”

And yet he chose to allow “that man” to take over from him and implement ‘bad advice’. No wonder Hoover pushed the highest income tax rate through the roof in response to the Great Depression:

The Revenue Act of 1932 (June 6, 1932, ch. 209, 47 Stat. 169) raised United States tax rates across the board, with the rate on top incomes rising from 25 percent to 63 percent. The estate tax was doubled and corporate taxes were raised by almost 15 percent.

Something to remember the next time a Lefty student of US history talks to you about the laissez-faire of Hoover.

The County Election (George Caleb Bingham)

We’ve certainly come a long way from that scene of elections in Missouri, which democracy Bingham believed in sufficiently to serve in the Union cause during the Civil War, despite being a Missouri native and politician.

Instead we have this, from a thoughtful piece on the 2022 US Mid-term elections:

This night is discouraging, but not because Republicans didn’t have as good a night as expected. It’s really because it seems that no level of economic turmoil or inflation or moral depravity is enough to sway people to change their minds. America is fractured now; divided and probably irreparably so. The great sort will continue.

And tomorrow, and in weeks to come, when Joe Biden stops propping up the economy by dumping the U.S. oil reserves to keep energy prices down, all heck is going to break loose. I was hoping that a GOP sweep would bring sanity back, but there will be no GOP sweep and the Republicans can shrug and say they can’t do anything to stop the onslaught that is about to happen.

Suffering is coming. Americans voted for what they’re about to get.

Perhaps that’s just how it has to be. During the Civil War even Lincoln himself, in trying to figure out the terrible conflict, concluded that it was God’s punishment for slavery.

But there’s also this aspect of modern America, best captured by the late Boston University professor emeritus Angelo Codevilla in his 2010 bestseller, The Ruling Class: How They Corrupted America, the nation has become divided between a “Ruling Class” whose “chief pretension is its intellectual superiority” and who thinks that most Americans – which Codevilla called the “Country Class”“are unfit to run their own lives.” Moreover, most Americans have noticed that “the Ruling Class has lost every war it has fought, run up an unplayable national debt, and generally made life worse.”

And in noting that I do wonder, as I look at that previous comment about what it will take to break Democrat voters away from their own punishment, whether the same thing is happening to the USA that has happened to France (Choose your philosophers carefully), courtesy of a ruling class whose “chief pretension is its intellectual superiority”:

Whatever became of France? Once the most beautiful, brilliant and civilised country on earth, it is now caught in a seemingly irreversible spiral of decline….

“Older French generations are just beginning to realise how bewitched they were by the intellectual gurus who seized power in the chaotic aftermath of 1968.

“Perhaps the cleverest, most cynical and most pernicious of these Pied Pipers was Michel Foucault. His books and lectures undermined the moral foundations of French history, society and intellectual life. Only now, decades after his death in 1984, is France gradually coming to terms with the fact that it allowed its collective mind to be befuddled by an evil genius …

“[Prize-winning French novelist] Ernaux’s works are saturated in the solipsism and nihilism of [this] nation in decline.”A subtler French writer than Ernaux, Michel Houellebecq, published a far more prophetic novel earlier this year. Anéantir (‘Destroy’) is set in 2027, as Macron leaves office. His vision of France is grim: stricken by poverty and unemployment, it is a rapidly ageing society. Hence his focus is on fatal illness. Unlike Ernaux, whose depiction of her mother’s dementia is shockingly cold-blooded, Houellebecq’s writing about the end of life is suffused with humanity.

“Yet even Houellebecq sees no sunlit uplands for France. For him, as for most of his compatriots, Macron cannot come clean soon enough about the failures of leadership that have reduced France to such relentless economic, social, political and educational decline. The pessimism of the country’s greatest writer speaks volumes about a nation gripped by the politics of cultural despair.

“Houellebecq’s last testament is his valedictory elegy for a France that has lost its raison d’être. Under Macron, the French have reversed Descartes’ Cogito, ergo sum. Now it should read: ‘I no longer think, therefore I no longer am’.”

One difference is that for all their nice words about the Revolution, the Declaration of Independence, the Founding Fathers, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, Americans have always been less in thrall to intellectuals and more pragmatic about their choices and paths.

In short, America still has a chance at surviving as a lawful, prosperous, healthy society – whereas I think France is lost:

In L’archipel français (“The French Archipelago”), published in 2019, sociologist Jérome Fourquet writes of a French “collective nervous breakdown” and the “crumbling” of French society. He notes that the religious and historical moorings of the French people are disappearing: churches are empty, important moments in the country’s history are no longer taught in schools

[In 2018], France had 9.3 million people living under the poverty line (on an income not more than 1,063 euros per month), and surveys showed that hundreds of thousands of families were suffering from malnutrition…The French economy suffered as a result of the lockdown. The number of poor people increased sharply and now stands at 12 million (18.46% of the population). 

Those who might have thought that the beheading of Samuel Paty would lead the authorities to make drastic decisions were proven wrong. Today, teachers throughout France report the relentless threats they receive. In the complaints they file, many say that Muslim students threaten “doing a Samuel Paty” to them. Jewish teachers face anti-Semitic threats and insults.

Essayist Céline Pina writes that the murder of little Lola, the reactions of the murderer after the crime and the government’s attempt to impose silence about the event, mark another step in France’s slide towards collapse, barbarity and chaos.

Far more detail at the link: all of it terrible.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 10, 2022 at 1:45 pm

Bugger the pollsters

with 21 comments

I wasn’t living in NZ when Jim Bolger uttered that now famous phrase, but it’s one for the ages, as polls told him that he would win the 1993 General election comfortably – though obviously losing seats after the 1990 landslide victory – only to see a massive swing to Labour that came within a millimetre of winning it for them

It left National and Bolger hanging on by their fingernails and it took some very clever backroom politics to see another National government formed.

In the US the GOP will certainly be having those thoughts today after a mediocre red trickle leaked across the country rather than the red tsunami they were expecting.

In only one place did that tsunami roar on to land and that was in Florida early in the evening, where Governor DeSantis not only had a massive win over an admittedly hopeless Democrat candidate in the execerable turncoat Charlie Crist, but saw him win the previous Democrat stronghold of Maimi-Dade county, where Biden had won in 2020 and Hillary had crushed Trump in 2016. But the GOP succeeded all across the state, flipping numerous seats from D to R.

And then it collapsed.

It can hardly be called a disaster when you take over the House, and still have a chance to win the Senate, something that won’t be decided now until the runoff election occurs in Georgia, where election laws demand a Senate winner get more than 50% of the vote; both Warnock(D) and Walker (R) failed to do that.

But given the economic and political environment the GOP should have done much better – and they expected too. The GOP wave elections of 1994 and 2010 did not have so many positives for the GOP to seize on as this election.

A President that’s very low in the polls, with no enthusiasm for him, with myriad, serious economic problems hitting ordinary people in the form of inflation, especially on food and gas, an uncertain international situation, massive fights occurring in schools at the grassroots level, and ever increasing levels of violent crime, especially in the Blue cities, plus the hangover issues of how the C-19 pandemic was handled by Democrat governors

If you can’t win with all this in your sails when can you? Of course to ask that question is to ignore previous elections where the GOP won while facing headwinds.

It should have been a blowout, and certainly both Democrats and Republicans were prepping for such. Instead it was a mixed bag, with Democrats flipping seats in the already One Party state of California to match the GOP Florida flips. A very notable loss was in New York where none other than the head of the DCCC, (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) lost his House seat. It’s been decades since that happened.

But aside from some highlights why wasn’t this a Red Tsunami? I’ll throw out a number of issues, starting with numero uno:

  • Trump:
    The combination of his inability to stay quiet in the background plus the Democrats desperate efforts to put him front and centre, worked to a certain degree. Notably it didn’t work in Florida because DeSantis is the Big Dog there. But it did work in a lot of other places, especially where Trump-endorsed candidates had won the GOP primaries against people who may have been better suited for their states. Trump loves celebrities. He’s also poison to a large chunk of the American electorate and you only get to face an even more loathed candidate like Hillary once in a lifetime.
  • C-19 Lockdowns:
    In many cases – but especially in Minnesota and Michigan – the GOP candidates could not really go after their opponent’s heavy handedness over lockdowns because they were either backed by Trump, who acquiesced in such things by letting Fauci and Birx have their head, or because they’d been pretty squishy on the subjects themselves. Sure, you can fight an election by effectively agreeing with your opponent to take an issue off the table, but it can also rob you of a powerful weapon. Given the damage to education and business resulting from C-19 measures, both Waltz (Minnesota) and Whitmar (Michigan) should have lost.
  • Candidate quality matters
    Some candidates, particularly some backed by Trump, were just not very good. The prime example would be Dr Oz in Pennsylvania, where he lost to Fetterman – a guy who is not only obviously brain-damaged from his stroke (as millions discovered when they watched the debate between the two) but is also a total fake on the “working class” angle, given his wealthy parents supported him into his forties, since when he’s been a permanent politician. But Oz was seen as another fake: a slick, clever man who did not fit with Pennsylvania’s self-image. Tellingly he ran behind Trump’s 2020 numbers in several Republican-leaning counties. Of course if you are going to bang this drum you have to acknowledge that Fetterman, while being the worst, was not the only low-quality Democrat candidate who won.
  • Mail-in voting
    This has grown tremendously over the last decade, pushed by a Democrat Party who have realised the old truth of Left-wing parties everywhere: that their voters have a tough time getting to the polls on election day. In olden times the Democrats invested a lot of money in election-day GOTV efforts. No more: the focus is now on mail-in voting weeks before election day. Aside from the possibilities for fraud that are created if the process is not tightly controlled, mail-in voting also enables a lot of voter decisions to made before the election campaigns really get underway. In the case of Fetterman, tens of thousands of votes had already been cast before he finally had his debate with Oz. How many of those voters may have regretted voting for him once they saw his terrible mental condition?

    The same thing applies for abortion, which did not show up in polls after the white heat of mid-Summer, following the Dodd decision. But back in September it was still an issue and millions of men and woman may have voted early on that basis. By the time the grim economic news caught up with them to become their top priorities it was too late.

    Such voting has always been a part of elections, it certainly is here in NZ where it is regarded as an exception. In many US States it’s becoming the rule and the Democrats love it. If the GOP don’t return it to being the exception it was, and should be, then they’re either going to have start playing the mail-in game harder or look forward to more last-second losses at midnight on election day. One of the reasons for DeSantis’s huge win was that Florida has taken vote fraud seriously because of what happened in 2018 when Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties tried to steal the elections the week after Election Day. The same is true of Ohio – they don’t let the big cities mail out ballots willy nilly.

There are also some outstanding questions about this election that will only be answered slowly as people dig into the data, and the pollsters will be frantic to do so in finding out why they got it so wrong.

Certainly the rule of thumb that had stood for several election cycles – that the polls always undercount the GOP vote – proved not to be true in most places. Those polls that showed the Democrats as being competitive in the last week were largely dismissed (certainly by me) as being desperate influencer polls, but they turned out to not be as far from the truth of the election as expected. It’s going to be interesting to see which polls now go up (and down) the accuracy rankings.

The ever-growing problem of landlines being substituted for cell phones continues to grow as Gen Z mature to voting age. I’ve not seen any pollster who has solved that problem, and while exit polls are untrustworthy the following should get the GOP’s attention;

CNN Exit poll showed:

GOP +13 for age 65 and older
GOP +11 for age 45-64
Dem +2 for age 30-44
Dem +28 for age 18 to 29 (Generation Z, my kids)

Sure, it’s an exit poll – and it’s from CNN – so adjust for lots of bullshit.

So where does this leave the Democrats and the GOP? Both have problems in the near future.

The Democrat’s immediate problems being what to do with Biden (who will be taking these results as approval) and the economic problems of inflation, energy costs, and interest rates that are not getting better. Even with a GOP House and Senate, voters still hold the President responsible. As far as violent crime goes that’s a problem at State and City level, it is also growing worse, and although the likes of Governor Horchul and company escaped this time it won’t go away – and they have no answers to it that won’t piss off their progressive base.

For the GOP, although they have other longer term problems too (see Gen Z above), plus this:

Thirty seven point difference? The Democrat Party has become the Husband of Last Resort for Unmarriageable Women, and I don’t know what appeals the GOP could possibly make to them that would not burn off the voters they have now. Probably better to focus on peeling away from the Democrats unmarried men as well married men and woman – a process the Democrats are doing by themselves.

But for the GOP there’s just one question for the immediate future : what to do about Trump in 2024?

Written by Tom Hunter

November 10, 2022 at 8:02 am

Where to watch the US Election

with 5 comments

There’s plenty to choose from but I prefer the Real Clear Politics website because they’ve long made a point of linking to articles from both sides of the political and ideological fence rather than indulging in the snobbish, tired, outdated idea that the New York Times and the Washington Post (or now Politico) are better than the NY Post, Washington Beacon and others classed as “Right-Wing”.

That link is just to the home page which does change.

However for today it should look like this.

Polling booths in the East Coast will close at 7pm EST (Eastern Standard Time), which is 1pm NZ time at present with the US out of Daylight Saving and ours having not yet started.

The Red State live election blog looks a bit cleaner than RCP’s and they’re all taking raw data from the same sources.

If you like popcorn and whiskey with your election results you may prefer the Daily Wire live streaming blog.

This is going to be one of the more interesting Mid-Terms ever. It feels like there’s a lot more at stake for both sides than normal, perhaps almost as much as the 2020 Presidential election.

Hmmmm…

Noon reports from Miami-Dade indicate things are much worse for the Democrats than even the most optimistic GOPer would have dared dream. This is the state of play in a county that Joe Biden carried by nearly 8 points.

Meanwhile out in the Pacific Ocean on the other side of the dateline, Guam has finally tipped over. They haven’t elected a Republican to be their delegate to the House since 1993 (one of a handful of non-voting delegates in the House actually)

Hmmmmm 2…..

Worth noting, James Moylan, the Republican who defeated Judi Won Pat (D) for Guam’s delegate to Congress, was trailing in the exit polls, SIGNIFICANTLY.

13 points, last I saw. He won by 5 points.

Folks, I kid you not. The exit poll showed:

Judith Won Pat, Democrat: 56.3%
James Moylan, Republican: 43.7%

Moylan, won. 5 points.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 9, 2022 at 11:24 am

Posted in US Politics, USA

Tagged with

Which election is stolen now?

with one comment

I guess Politico has become an alternative for those wanting to read about US politics but who are no longer very trusting of the traditional MSM – especially the NYT, WaPo and the three alphabet TV channels.

Unfortunately the same sort of people who work for those latter businesses also end up working for Politico. The bias is not in the particular media but in the minds of the journalists and editors, and they carry that virus with them everywhere that they go.

In my previous post I linked to a Tucker Carlson piece from Fox News about Joe Biden’s recent speech where – among other desperate claims – he talked about how it might take days to get the final results in tomorrow’s Mid-Term elections, and that nobody should question the result if that happens.

Tucker described this as as a “bizzare” take that “did not inspire confidence” – but I think that’s the Good Will take. It struck me as dangerous. For decades Western democracies, including vast ones like the USA, had no problem in deciding elections on election night, even when they were tight.

Only in recent years has this nonsense become more common, especially in the USA, and the reason is the increased amount of mail-in voting, which has been heavily pressed by the Democrats with the claim that it increases voting participation – and hence any resistance to it, like validating that the ballot is a genuine one from the actual voter who could not come to the polling booth in person, is “voter suppression”.

Thus the Democrat anger about the Georgia election laws being tightened up by the Republicans who run the state, in the aftermath of 2020. President Biden said the new laws were so awful that they weren’t just Jim Crow 2.0 but “Jim Eagle” (clumsy metaphor to say the least). Corporates were enlisted to attack the state by moving their business out and MLB’s All Star game was shifted to 95% White Colorado. As it turns out, Black voting numbers were up in the various Georgia 2022 primary elections, and by considerable margins.

So much for “Jim Eagle”.

But one of the other amusing things that has emerged out of the last two years is that the US Left can no longer attack such claims as “conspiracy theories”, because they’ve got their own. This should have been obvious to anybody who remembered the howls about the 2000 Presidential election (“Selected, not elected”), claims about dirty work with electronic voting machines (Senior Democrat representative and power player James Clyburn) in 2004, and of course the whole “Russian interference” screamfest in the 2016 election.

Yet the Democrats and their MSM allies are so confident in their powers of propaganda that they appear to be making the claim again, in advance, and sometimes in the same breath with which they defend the 2020 election as the cleanest ever.

The 2020 presidential election was rife with allegations of voting machine hacks that were later debunked. Yet there are real risks that hackers could tunnel into voting equipment and other election infrastructure to try to undermine Tuesday’s vote.

Or to put it another way…

Politico:
Anyone Alleging Voter Fraud in the 2020 Election the Democrats Won (LOL) With the Most Votes in History (LOL) Is a Big-Lie-Peddling Jan 6 Insurrectionist Ultra-MAGA who wants to destroy democracy .

Also Politico:
Election Fraud Is Real and the Vote Tomorrow Will Probably be #Hacked

Or to put it yet another way…. the Democrats are going to lose, badly, and Politico knows it.

Tomorrow is going to be lit.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 8, 2022 at 9:12 pm

Omens for the Democrats

with 5 comments

The other day I put up a headline from the NYT that was obviously the Bat Signal that “President” Biden is now fair game to be attacked, where they noted his recent fumbles.

It had always been a question of when, not if, the Democrats would move on Biden, given his increasing public displays of senility, the failures of his Administration, his very low approval ratings and the absolute need to stop him running again in 2024.

I always figured the trigger would be the 2022 mid-term elections, since it’s a rule of thumb that the President’s Party loses seats in the first term mid-terms, and for months all indications have been that the Democrats losses this year would be huge. So it begins!

And now we have CNN reporter, Daniel Dale, picking up the NYT’s beacon loud and clear.

A CNN fact-check on a Democrat? On Biden. Oh my! Which makes even richer the irony of this statement of Biden’s.

Some GOP representatives have also seen the signal that the Democrats are about to move on Biden and are taking the mockery public.

There are other omens as well.

Still, Fetterman obviously has enough nous to to do a backflip on fracking (a big issue in Pennsylvania) and now apparently on abortion when he said, “I Celebrate the Demise of Roe v. Wade.” – or was just his stroked brain mis-firing again?

The following is not a GOP advertisement this year – but it should be.

However, one recent speech from Biden was concerning:

Carlson noted how odd it was that Biden was now demanding that no one complains about the election results, even though because of a lot of Democratic changes, we may not know the results for a few days, “But don’t be alarmed…And do not ask questions! Or else you’re a criminal!” Instead of making a pitch about what Biden had done to earn your vote, he commanded you to accept the results. “It was bizarre,” Carlson said. “And it did not inspire confidence.”

Oh it’s more than “bizarre”, that’s just Tucker taking a good-faith-best-case take on what Biden said about election night.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 8, 2022 at 8:13 am

Knives Out

with 6 comments

It’s not the purpose of blogs to try and replace the news media in simple reporting of news events. We don’t have the resources in bodies and time.

Blogs should be about analysis and measured thinking about events and things that are happening – many of them slow and largely unseen – and which are shaping our cultures, societies and nations. That blogs can do much better than the MSM, especially nowadays when their resources are now also stretched thin, both in numbers and talent.

But there are times when it’s appropriate to comment on a rapidly moving news story, especially when it’s based on something that’s been building for a while now.

In this case, the Administration of President Joe Biden.

Oh no, you may say: yet another attack on poor President Biden by some Ultra-MAGA, hyper-partisan, QAnon, Alt-Right Extremely Extremist news source in the USA?

Actually that’s the headline from the New York Times yesterday, channelling Breitbart, Red State , Powerline, Ace Of Spades and every other Right-wing source of punditry and analysis in the USA for the last three years.

It’s appearance is a also huge, flashing beacon signalling to the rest of the Lefty Luvvie universe in America the following key points:

  • The Democrats are about to get thrashed in the Mid-Term elections.
  • Someone has to be blamed.
  • That someone is the senile dementia patient in the White House, whose faults will no longer be papered over by the NYT.
  • It’s time to start looking for a new Democrat candidate for President in 2024 (which means knifing Biden)

Over on the Right we’ve been waiting a long time for reality to strike the Democrats, even as their catastrophes piled up from the President all the way down to the lowliest mayor and school board member.

But that reality is now here and approaching the shoreline fast:

NEW YORK: Flop Sweat and Panic Grips New York Democrats as New Poll Puts Lee Zeldin in the Lead

A new Trafalgar Poll gives New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin a slim lead over Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul. In this poll, rated A- by the left-leaning fivethirtyeight.com, shows Zeldin leading 48.4% to 47.6%. While this number is well within the margin of error, two months ago, Hochul was leading by five points, and a month ago, she was ahead by two points

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Stunner for Democrats Drops in New Hampshire and Scrambles the Election Map

Hold on a second. Is New Hampshire actually in play for Republicans on November 8th? That’s the story from a stunning new poll that shows that Don Bolduc is leading Democrat incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan [48 to 47%]. Bolduc, a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate, was left for dead after winning the primary, with the assumption being that his negatives were too high and that he couldn’t draw support in a blue state.

If this were just some random poll, I wouldn’t even bother to write this article. In this case, though, St. Anselm is a gold-standard poll for the State of New Hampshire. In fact, it’s the only state they deal with as pollsters, and they were, by far, the most accurate pollster there in 2020.

WASHINGTON: Now ‘Ground Zero for Wave Election Upset’ in Senate Race

RealClearPolitics has now listed the race as a toss-up and a statistical tie. After three decades of doing nothing in the Senate, Patty Murray may have to find a real job.

OREGON: Oregon Voters Say They’ve Lost Patience With Democrats

“I don’t like the Democratic approach to anything that’s happening,” said Terri, who lives with her husband outside of Salem and dropped her party affiliation two years ago. “I used to be a Democrat for 40 years.”

That dissatisfaction is threatening Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek’s chances in Oregon, where voters rank crime and the economy as top concerns. Even after Biden visited the state to stump for Kotek, the Democrat trails her Republican opponent Christine Drazan in recent polls. Statewide surveys also show a majority of Oregonians have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Kotek.

Those are merely elections where I thought the GOP had no chance, as did most other people, and I still doubt that the GOP will win the last three races because they are such Democrat strongholds.

I’ll remain focused on South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania – where cheating on mail ballots just got harder:

“The court unanimously decided to set aside undated or incorrectly dated mail-in ballots. Under Pennsylvania law, mail-in voters are required to sign and date a declaration on the outer envelope. Despite this requirement, if undated or incorrectly dated ballots are turned in on time, they are eligible to be counted.”

Attention will also be paid to the Mid-West states of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. But I’ll cast an occasional look at the Deep Blue States on election night.

But when you have the Democrats shifting money from an Oregon district that Biden won in 2020 by 9 points to shore up support in a district he won by 13 points then you know they’re in deep trouble.

There are any number of factors driving all this, and they vary a bit between states – New York and Oregon seem to be about Crime and the Economy – whereas Arizona is about the Border and the Economy. But there are deeper factors at work also:

The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.

White suburban woman? Well, Trump is no longer on the ticket and it was that group that hated him more than any other (Warning alert for 2024, Donald). But this election was supposed to be all about abortion, abortion, abortion and… it seems the most abortion loving group isn’t listening:

Republicans made massive gains with independent women in recent weeks as Democrats ramped up their messaging on abortion ahead of the midterm elections.

Of particular note was a 32 point swing among independent women toward the GOP. In September’s iteration of the poll [New York Times/Siena College], Democrats boasted a 14 point lead among that demographic, but by October, Republicans held an 18 point advantage.

A thirty two point swing in that group? Obviously the terrible American economy is grinding away but there’s got to be more than that, and there is. It’s called being a parent and wondering what the hell your kid is being taught in school nowadays by teachers backed by the various Teachers Unions, Democrat fanatics at local, State and National levels. It was this group that won the Virginia governor’s race for Glenn Youngkin months ago – but the Democrat party wrote that off as racism. Big mistake.

Naturally Ace Of Spades has a more cynical take on these sudden polling revelations:

There is a very strong suspicion among poll analysts and critics. The People’s Pundit Richard Barris mentioned it in his last podcast, though he’s mentioned it before, and many people talk about it. They talk about major pollsters deliberately publishing polls they know for a fact oversample Democrats and are therefore just wrong, in order to please their clients (who are often leftwing media companies and their gonzo shitlib audiences).

But then, right before the election, in the last poll before voting starts, they suddenly publish a poll showing the GOP in a much better position. Suddenly, the Democrat oversampling they’ve been doing for months just poof! vanishes.

And why do they do this? Because, when people rank pollster’s accuracy, they usually only look at the last poll conducted before the election. All the deliberately Democrat-oversampling polls designed to perk up Democrat donors and demoralize Republican voters they published before the last poll are “freebies” — they won’t count as far as their official accuracy evaluation.

(A more innocent, but not completely innocent, explanation is that these pollsters know damn well it’s hard to get media-distrusting conservatives to answer pollster’s questions — and don’t bother to take special efforts to get them into the survey. Until it’s the final poll of the season.)

So I’m not surprised to learn, get this, all the leftwing pollsters are all of a sudden showing big leads for the GOP in their last poll before the election. Unexpectedly!

Exhibit A:

One point that bears another mention: Democrats are overrepresented in solidly safe ultramarine blue districts, like major cities, and are therefore underrepresented in competitive swing districts. So Republicans are further ahead in competitive districts than a national poll would indicate.

Written by Tom Hunter

November 3, 2022 at 7:38 am