No Minister

Comparing Apples to Islands

Just over a year ago I took a look at another island that was comparable to New Zealand in being a developed society with a fair degree of wealth, good healthcare services and all-round good government (at least as good as it gets), just to see how they were doing with the dreaded Chinese Lung Rot.

Hawaii: Troubles in Another Pacific Paradise

They were not doing too well despite following the same path, but doing so even more harshly:

The island state did what New Zealand and many other nations did: full lockdown. Tourism vanished of course and any other visitors were told to quarantine for the usual 14 days. But Hawaii went further, jailing a few people for violating lockdown orders. Moreover there has been a mandate in place requiring mask-wearing indoors since April and now even outdoors.

But unlike NZ that did not seem to buy them much success as cases, hospitalisations and deaths rose. This graph in particular showed problems with the mask strategy.

The mask aspect deserves it’s own post, but I thought I’d check up to see how they were doing now following the great US vaccine rollout.

The answer is …. not too well. In fact you probably didn’t know Hawaii just hit an all time high for covid hospitalisations – because the MSM can’t blame a lack of masks, lack of vaccines, lack of lockdown harshness, President Trump, Trump voters, or Republicans in general for this data. Hawaii is as solidly Democrat Party as California or Illinois.

The good news is that the state still ranks 50th out of all the states for having the lowest death toll: 405 per million. But in the wake of these events it’s clear that it must be due to factors other than masks and lockdowns. After all, their death rate is still much higher than ours: can we honestly say our lockdown and masking was better than theirs?

The vaccine would be the obvious answer, but in fact the death rate peaked in late January before the vaccine rollout was even up to full speed, let alone put across a majority of the most vulnerable (elderly and already sick people), let alone the rest of the population. Still, given the way death tolls among the elderly have been reduced dramatically in the US and Britain it’s almost certain that it’s saving lives now.

In Hawaii, 1,041,430 people or 73% of the state has received at least one dose.

Overall, 775,775 people or 54% of Hawaii’s population has been fully vaccinated.


Some other factor must be at work to enable such a low death rate. The warm climate? Outdoors lifestyle? Lower proportion of elderly? Having several thousand miles of empty Pacific Ocean around it?

Only time and scientific medical analysis will tell.

However, the Delta variant has come ashore:

Faced with a flood of COVID-19 patients, Queen’s Medical Center West Oahu has declared a “disaster” as the hospital seeks additional support.

“Today we declared an internal state of emergency, so that means that all hands are on deck,” said Jason Chang, of the Queen’s Health Systems.

Officials say Queen’s West Oahu is at capacity and every bed in the facility is full right now.

Has stopped accepting new patients

Other Hawaii hospitals are expected to follow suit.

The three points that need to be made are these.

First, this has happened despite a 54% vaccination rate, and lengthy, tough, mask and lockdown mandates.

Second, the vaccines effectiveness seems to be declining with time, as noted elsewhere in the world. In this they now appear to be more like a treatment for the disease than a true vaccine, but then that’s the reason why a vaccine has never been developed for the common cold; the Rhinoviruses and Coronaviruses that cause them mutate too quickly – but largely without killing their victims, such is the evolutionary pressure of re-production, and the reason Ebola did not used to spread far, killing a village before people could escape to another village.

Third, although people are in hospital there’s no mention of serious ICU levels of sickness and the death rates are not rising despite the surge starting in mid-July. This matches the data from other nations showing that Delta is more infectious but far less lethal than the Alpha variant, itself barely above flu lethality.

Early diagnosis of more severe cases (rather than identifying all cases), seeking effective new treatments, and developing medical and healthcare resources would all be smarter moves.

Basically Hawaii needs to say “aloha” to the target of “zero COVID”, which is no longer possible, dump the mask and lockdown bullshit and return to the traditional pandemic approaches of:

  • Tracing infected people and quarantining them, rather than locking everybody up.
  • Focus on protecting the vulnerable, especially with early diagnosis of more severe cases (rather than identifying all cases)
  • Seek effective new treatments of the sick.
  • Boost medical and healthcare resources.

l’ll leave you with this.

Will New Zealand learn any lessons from this, or are we still convinced that our way is the best in the world because “only 26 people have died of Covid-19”?

Written by Tom Hunter

August 27, 2021 at 3:08 pm

3 Responses

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  1. Anybody looking for validation of Tom’s figures will find them at the Hawaii Dept o Health where they have a Covid tab.

    Anybody wondering at deaths in Hawaii then it is 573 in total since the outbreak, representing a 1% fatality rate.

    That is on a base of 59,000 infections

    350 of the deaths are from the over 70 age group, 20 of them from the over 80

    Below is a link to their official stats, paste it into your browser


    August 27, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    • You are pissing into the wind Rossco, my friend

      The people you are trying to reach have a religious belief in the power of Government and a needle in the arm has taken on the sacramental form of a baptism

      And when it comes to numbers their teeny tiny brains just shut down

      The thing about Governments and bureaucracies is they can never admit mistakes so they will double down on stupid every time

      And the more their programs fail the more draconian the measures they take to shut down those who call them out.

      Oh and BTW did you see this
      BBC presenter Lisa Shaw died of Covid vaccine complications, coroner finds

      This is not an isolated incident, far from it, but being a woman with a high public profile it cannot be swept under the rug

      Being a man of logic and reason I ask why are we inoculating people against a disease that poses zero risk to them with a vaccine that does?


      August 27, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    • Thanks Andrei keep up the good work.

      I enjoy reading your comments and Toms posts. There are a lot people who think the same way out there as we do.!

      I guess if people like Vet and Wayne, and National, were in power they would be doing exactly as Labour is at the moment, controlling the media, controlling the message and painting themselves into a corner.

      We usually sneer at the UK but they have become a centre of excellence for original covid research, and the British Medical Journal is to be admired

      We are no longer the country we thought we were, pioneers, fighters, and innovators.

      The Southern Cross on our flag should be replaced by what we have become… SHEEP.

      12,100 annual deaths in Hawaii , 525 Covid deaths in 18 months….. Gotta be frightened by that figure if you are certain figures on this blog.
      Probably less than die in surfing accidents , skin cancer or on the roads. over there

      Baa, Baaa……Baaa,Baaaaa


      August 27, 2021 at 6:04 pm

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